Anthropogenic Global Warming ... how hot is it ?

Glacial tours in Canada’s Jasper National Park are quite popular. Tour operators have had to reroute trails to the foot of the Athabasca Glacier several times every season because of glacial melt.

True - the last time I was in Jasper it was a fair hike to the actual glacier from where we'd parked but, at one time, that was almost at the edge of the ice
 

End of an era as Britain’s last coal-fired power plant shuts down​

UK’s 142-year history of coal-fired electricity ends as turbines at Ratcliffe-on-Soar plant in Nottinghamshire stop for good

Coal & the U.K. has been a cliché for generations, punctuated even by a cultural twist of the knife like Dick Van Dyke's halfhearted depiction of a chimney sweep in Mary Poppins.

Industrial Revolution, in modern history, the process of change from ...

note:
Reportedly China is still building coal-fired commercial power installations.
Will this major step in deCarbonization in the U.K. spread as constructively as the Industrial Revolution did in the previous millennium?
 

'Devastating consequences': Climate change likely worsened floods after Helene

Flooding on some western North Carolina rivers blew past records set in 1916 as extreme rainfall amounts in the last week of September led to a rampaging slush of mud and debris.

Scientists said this week that they see the unmistakable fingerprint of climate change in the flooding rain ahead of and during Hurricane Helene. Enormous rainfall totals took place over three days along more than 200 miles of the Appalachian Mountains from Georgia into Virginia.

At least 184 people have been killed by the direct and indirect effects of Helene's devastating trip across the U.S., most from the cataclysmic ...

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To put things in perspective

"Forty trillion gallons of rain fell in total, the equivalent of one-third of the total volume of Lake Erie, enough to cover the entire state of Massachusetts in 23 feet of water." ~
informed estimate of Hurricane Helene's impact on the Southeast
 

Milton forecast for Florida hurricane landfall. Cat bond & ILS market on watch

Steve Evans
The Gulf Coast of Florida is facing another hurricane landfall, as tropical storm Milton has formed and is set to head quickly towards Florida, with rapid intensification forecast and a major hurricane Milton landfall possible that could have the potential to cause meaningful insurance and reinsurance market losses.

Tropical storm Milton formed yesterday in the south western Gulf of Mexico and is expected to travel across the warm Gulf waters gaining strength as it heads for a Florida landfall somewhere between Marco Island in the south to Cedar Key north of Tampa, based on a range of forecasts we’ve seen.

However, the GFS and a number of the most widely viewed forecast models have a strong hurricane Milton making landfall near to Tampa Bay, potentially at major Category 3 or greater intensity.

The NHC forecast cone center line is currently focused on Tampa Bay as well, but there is some uncertainty as the cone is relatively wide still at this time. The NHC says “steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days,” and Milton could be a major hurricane early this coming week.

It’s worth noting that the forecast path, based on the NHC cone center line, would take Milton’s strongest winds and highest surge into Tampa Bay, affecting one of the most populous regions of Florida, after which inland impacts in areas such as Orlando would be expected, if the current forecast holds.

There remains a good deal of uncertainty, Milton is still a tropical storm after all. But, forecast models are gaining agreement on the rapid intensification to a strong to major hurricane Milton before landfall somewhere on the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday or Thursday, with most seemingly opting for a Tampa area landfall, some further south between Sarasota and Cape Coral.

On which basis, it’s already clear this is not looking like another situation where a significant hurricane strikes a low population region of Florida coastline, like the Big Bend, as we’ve seen of late resulting in single-digit billion dollar industry losses.

This is a storm that models suggest is more likely to hit a region with far greater population density and exposure concentration, with the potential to take a path inland over similarly high
concentrations of insured property, raising the spectre of potentially meaningful losses for insurance and reinsurance markets, with possible ramifications for the catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market.

Tropical storm Milton’s latest location and the forecast cone and wind speeds can be seen in the graphic below from Tomer Burg:

milton-storm-hurricane-florida-landfall-reinsurance-2.png


The NHC’s forecast advisory suggests sustained winds of around 120 mph prior to landfall with gusts to 150 mph, so major Category ...

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