Shiftless2
Well-known member
True - the last time I was in Jasper it was a fair hike to the actual glacier from where we'd parked but, at one time, that was almost at the edge of the ice
Anthropogenic Global Warming ... how hot is it ?
- Thread starter sear
- Start date
True - the last time I was in Jasper it was a fair hike to the actual glacier from where we'd parked but, at one time, that was almost at the edge of the ice
Not everyone has a glacier in their back yard. BUT !
Nobody doesn't get rain.
www.nature.com
Nobody doesn't get rain.
Anthropogenic climate change has reduced drought recovery probabilities across the western US - Communications Earth & Environment
Increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change has led to extended recovery times from contemporary droughts in the Western US, compared to 1901-1980, according to an analysis of observations and climate model output.
www.nature.com
End of an era as Britain’s last coal-fired power plant shuts down
UK’s 142-year history of coal-fired electricity ends as turbines at Ratcliffe-on-Soar plant in Nottinghamshire stop for good
End of an era as Britain’s last coal-fired power plant shuts down
UK’s 142-year history of coal-fired electricity ends as turbines at Ratcliffe-on-Soar plant in Nottinghamshire stop for good
www.theguardian.com
Coal & the U.K. has been a cliché for generations, punctuated even by a cultural twist of the knife like Dick Van Dyke's halfhearted depiction of a chimney sweep in Mary Poppins.
Industrial Revolution, in modern history, the process of change from ...
Industrial Revolution | Definition, History, Dates, Summary, & Facts | Britannica
Industrial Revolution, in modern history, the process of change from an agrarian and handicraft economy to one dominated by industry and machine manufacturing. The process began in Britain in the 18th century and from there spread to other parts of the world, driving changes in energy use...
www.britannica.com
note:
Reportedly China is still building coal-fired commercial power installations.
Will this major step in deCarbonization in the U.K. spread as constructively as the Industrial Revolution did in the previous millennium?
Shiftless2
Well-known member
'Devastating consequences': Climate change likely worsened floods after Helene
Flooding on some western North Carolina rivers blew past records set in 1916 as extreme rainfall amounts in the last week of September led to a rampaging slush of mud and debris.Scientists said this week that they see the unmistakable fingerprint of climate change in the flooding rain ahead of and during Hurricane Helene. Enormous rainfall totals took place over three days along more than 200 miles of the Appalachian Mountains from Georgia into Virginia.
At least 184 people have been killed by the direct and indirect effects of Helene's devastating trip across the U.S., most from the cataclysmic ...
CONTINUED
Shiftless2
Well-known member
To put things in perspective
"Forty trillion gallons of rain fell in total, the equivalent of one-third of the total volume of Lake Erie, enough to cover the entire state of Massachusetts in 23 feet of water." ~ informed estimate of Hurricane Helene's impact on the Southeast
"Forty trillion gallons of rain fell in total, the equivalent of one-third of the total volume of Lake Erie, enough to cover the entire state of Massachusetts in 23 feet of water." ~ informed estimate of Hurricane Helene's impact on the Southeast
Shiftless2
Well-known member
Milton forecast for Florida hurricane landfall. Cat bond & ILS market on watch
Steve EvansThe Gulf Coast of Florida is facing another hurricane landfall, as tropical storm Milton has formed and is set to head quickly towards Florida, with rapid intensification forecast and a major hurricane Milton landfall possible that could have the potential to cause meaningful insurance and reinsurance market losses.
Tropical storm Milton formed yesterday in the south western Gulf of Mexico and is expected to travel across the warm Gulf waters gaining strength as it heads for a Florida landfall somewhere between Marco Island in the south to Cedar Key north of Tampa, based on a range of forecasts we’ve seen.
However, the GFS and a number of the most widely viewed forecast models have a strong hurricane Milton making landfall near to Tampa Bay, potentially at major Category 3 or greater intensity.
The NHC forecast cone center line is currently focused on Tampa Bay as well, but there is some uncertainty as the cone is relatively wide still at this time. The NHC says “steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days,” and Milton could be a major hurricane early this coming week.
It’s worth noting that the forecast path, based on the NHC cone center line, would take Milton’s strongest winds and highest surge into Tampa Bay, affecting one of the most populous regions of Florida, after which inland impacts in areas such as Orlando would be expected, if the current forecast holds.
There remains a good deal of uncertainty, Milton is still a tropical storm after all. But, forecast models are gaining agreement on the rapid intensification to a strong to major hurricane Milton before landfall somewhere on the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday or Thursday, with most seemingly opting for a Tampa area landfall, some further south between Sarasota and Cape Coral.
On which basis, it’s already clear this is not looking like another situation where a significant hurricane strikes a low population region of Florida coastline, like the Big Bend, as we’ve seen of late resulting in single-digit billion dollar industry losses.
This is a storm that models suggest is more likely to hit a region with far greater population density and exposure concentration, with the potential to take a path inland over similarly high
concentrations of insured property, raising the spectre of potentially meaningful losses for insurance and reinsurance markets, with possible ramifications for the catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market.
Tropical storm Milton’s latest location and the forecast cone and wind speeds can be seen in the graphic below from Tomer Burg:
The NHC’s forecast advisory suggests sustained winds of around 120 mph prior to landfall with gusts to 150 mph, so major Category ...
CONTINUED
"If it bleeds, it leads", the market provides incentive for alarmist headlines.
Penetrate the clutter of clatter, and find more fundamental information such as:
basic infrastructure like urban & suburban storm-drain capacity (GPH) were designed, engineered, scaled for capacities appropriate to pre-anthropogenic global warming complications.
Some reports indicate rebuilding infrastructure robust enough to handle the next Helene may pre-require an extensive reassessment of basic infrastructure capacities such as storm drain volume, etc.
And that means $money.
And Trump is a Republican.
And Republicans have well earned reputations as tax cutters, rather than infrastructure investors.
Not the end of the world, but I find the overlapping color coding for both rainfall depth, and wind velocity a little distracting.#226
Shiftless2
Well-known member
Some pretty amazing footage here
A lifelong New Yorker, I'm accustomed to seeing such snow in my own yard. BUT !!
My yard is conspicuously palm tree free. Not sure where the snowplow came from.
Shiftless2
Well-known member
Did you watch the vid? No idea why they prefaced it with a snow scene
Shiftless2
Well-known member
Hurricane Milton losses could amount to tens of billions, but uncertainty high: BMS’ Siffert
Steve EvansInsurance industry losses from major hurricane Milton’s eventual impacts in Florida could amount to tens of billions of dollars, but there is high uncertainty still as the eventual landfall location and intensity will greatly influence the eventual cost for the industry, according to Andrew Siffert, Senior Meteorologist at BMS Group.
As we’ve been reporting, hurricane Milton has intensified in just over 24 hours from a tropical storm with 60 mph winds, to now a Category 5 storm, as of an update from the NHC just now, with sustained winds now estimated at 160 mph.
There remains significant uncertainty over the eventual landfall location on the Florida Peninsula’s west coast, as well as in the intensity of the storm when it arrives.
But, with Milton expected to continue its intensification for a time before weakening a little, but at the same time growing in size with an expanded wind field, the potential for very damaging surge and wind impacts are clear.
Siffert of insurance and reinsurance broking group BMS explained, “Forecast models show uncertainty in Milton’s exact landfall, but its intense winds, possible Category 5 strength later tomorrow, and weakening but widening wind field raise concerns about immense industry losses.
“The damages have the potential to be between $10 billion to $100 billion depending on the wide range of scenarios that now heavily depend on track and intensity forecasts at landfall.”
He went into more detail in his latest blog post, in which Siffert expanded, “It is still too early to ....
Hurricane Milton losses could amount to tens of billions, but uncertainty high: BMS' Siffert - Artemis.bm
Insurance industry losses from major hurricane Milton's eventual impacts in Florida could amount to tens of billions of dollars, but there is high
www.artemis.bm
Note there are a number of other links at the bottom of the page - there's a tracking map there as well
Winds @ 180 MPH, storm now the size of the Gulf of Mexico. It's a big 'n.
Gertrude, better get the umbrella.
Shiftless2
Well-known member
BUT !
If MAGA had stopped the steal, Milt would only be a tropical oppression. Biden is the worst president e v e r !
Shiftless2
Well-known member
S E X !
The meteorologically politically incorrect practice of reserving female names for disasters tapered off in the '70's. 'til then, made sense. What's a himicane?
"... we only included hurricanes since 1979, as all hurricanes were given female names between 1953 and that year. (Before 1953, latitude-longitude identification methods were used to tag hurricanes.)"
www.livescience.com
The meteorologically politically incorrect practice of reserving female names for disasters tapered off in the '70's. 'til then, made sense. What's a himicane?
"... we only included hurricanes since 1979, as all hurricanes were given female names between 1953 and that year. (Before 1953, latitude-longitude identification methods were used to tag hurricanes.)"
Battle of the Hurricane Sexes: Male vs. Female Storms
In terms of destructive hurricanes, the guys hold a slight edge over the ladies.
Shiftless2
Well-known member
My poor misfortunate doctor Tyson: if gravity were real the sun would have fallen down and hit you on the head by now. Right? You think I'm an ignorant noramus?
"You don't have to believe in science. It is true whether or not you believe in it." Neil DeGrasse Tyson
"If humans one day become extinct from a catastrophic [asteroid] collision, we would be the laughing stock of aliens in the galaxy, for having a large brain and a space program, yet we met the same fate as that pea-brained, space program-less dinosaurs that came before us." Neil deGrasse Tyson
"As the area of our knowledge grows, so too does the perimeter of our ignorance." Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson
"The universe is under no obligation to make sense to you." astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson
"Learn to love the questions themselves, because therein are the seeds of all curiosity, & wonder." Neil DeGrasse Tyson
"The problem in society is not kids not knowing science. The problem is adults not knowing science. They outnumber kids 5 to 1, they wield power, they write legislation. When you have scientifically illiterate adults, you have undermined the very fabric of what makes a nation wealthy and strong." -Neil deGrasse Tyson (source unverified)
Shiftless2
Well-known member
Sad but true
Cheer for beer.
Wine is fine. BUT !
The ethanol concentration in wine naturally terminates at about 14%. Why?
It's automatic, natural, self-regulating.
Ethanol is the waste excreted by yeast as it consumes sugar.
Once it reaches ~14% the ethanol kills off the yeast, the fungi used in fermentation.
Though anatomically modern humans emerged in Africa several hundred thousand years ago,
our technology, our society, even our population concentrations far outpace our more slowly evolving biology. *
We're well equipped to understand our world on Newtonian basis, simply on basis of casual observation and daily experience.
But Einstein, Relativity marginalizes astrophysics to those that study it deliberately.
Are we careening toward sociological complexity beyond the capacity of human biological development, now hundreds of thousands of years old?
We may compensate.
We might for example be able to cope better with the complexities politics, beyond the simple pro- or con-.
In the Trump era the additional complication is factual variability.
Unquestionably there is a limit to human mental capacities.
Equally unquestionable, that limit spans an enormous spectrum across a global population of 8 Billion+.
How close are we to reaching that limit, for the "common man" (& woman)? Or are we already there?
Do our biological limitations result in forcing us to specialize? We can't know it all, so we specialize?
Presaged by H.G. Wells' Eloi and Morlocks?
* Some scientists claim the fly, a familiar common insect, is more highly evolved than humans. Why?
Evolution is a process that takes place by generation. One human generation may be decades, 20 years or more, for a single human generation. But for the fly there are many, many more generations.
If a fly lives one month, that's 240 generations for every human generation. AND ! The fly got a huge millions of years head start in that race.
ref:
Wine is fine. BUT !
The ethanol concentration in wine naturally terminates at about 14%. Why?
It's automatic, natural, self-regulating.
Ethanol is the waste excreted by yeast as it consumes sugar.
Once it reaches ~14% the ethanol kills off the yeast, the fungi used in fermentation.
Though anatomically modern humans emerged in Africa several hundred thousand years ago,
our technology, our society, even our population concentrations far outpace our more slowly evolving biology. *
We're well equipped to understand our world on Newtonian basis, simply on basis of casual observation and daily experience.
But Einstein, Relativity marginalizes astrophysics to those that study it deliberately.
Are we careening toward sociological complexity beyond the capacity of human biological development, now hundreds of thousands of years old?
We may compensate.
We might for example be able to cope better with the complexities politics, beyond the simple pro- or con-.
In the Trump era the additional complication is factual variability.
Unquestionably there is a limit to human mental capacities.
Equally unquestionable, that limit spans an enormous spectrum across a global population of 8 Billion+.
How close are we to reaching that limit, for the "common man" (& woman)? Or are we already there?
Do our biological limitations result in forcing us to specialize? We can't know it all, so we specialize?
Presaged by H.G. Wells' Eloi and Morlocks?
* Some scientists claim the fly, a familiar common insect, is more highly evolved than humans. Why?
Evolution is a process that takes place by generation. One human generation may be decades, 20 years or more, for a single human generation. But for the fly there are many, many more generations.
If a fly lives one month, that's 240 generations for every human generation. AND ! The fly got a huge millions of years head start in that race.
ref: