News Related To The Ukraine / Russian War

[sear]

"President Trump wants a Nobel prize for this. More likely to lose Putin friendship than win peace." t #140

- ha -
I doubt Putin is a genuine friend to the national leader of any NATO member nation. Your point perhaps.

One of the glaring problems here:
It's the sovereign territory of Ukraine that's at issue, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been Ukraine's elected leader there since before Russia / Putin invaded (excluding Crimea).
Reports indicate this key leader is being excluded from the Alaska summit.

A U.S. military drill instructor once defined "mess" as 10 pounds of crap stuffed in a 3 pound sack. This Alaska summit is a "mess" even before it has begun.

 

[sear]

Is our modern civilization in jeopardy?
It may not seem a likely scenario. Is it a non-zero risk?

Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska next week to discuss Ukraine war​

The announcement comes as Trump’s deadline for Russia to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire passed without any new commitments.
United States President Donald Trump has said he will meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on August 15 in Alaska to discuss efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska next week to discuss Ukraine war

The announcement comes as Trump’s deadline for Russia to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire passed without any new action.

www.aljazeera.com

a) President Trump is egotistical, enjoys dominating the news.
b) Trump seems interested in earning rare or unique distinction, commonly speaking of his own accomplishments in the superlative.
c) Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, wanted by the ICC: https://www.icc-cpi.int/defendant/vladimir-vladimirovich-putin & /news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and
d) Alaska may be former Russian territory, but it's U.S. sovereign territory now. Does President Trump have a "Plan B" in mind here?
e) Putin is notorious for his adversaries and critics meeting ill-fate. Not merely Navalny, dozens including members of the press. Might Trump hope to earn Putin's esteem by Trump demonstrating such Putin-like act?

If Putin refuses to satisfy Trump's preferences, will Trump while Putin is on U.S. sovereign territory in Alaska hold Putin for ICC authorities to execute their arrest warrant, to take Putin prisoner,
and place Putin on trial to answer the ICC charges against him?

And in that event, what would Putin loyalists in Russia do? They may have the ability to operate Russia's nuclear weapons arsenals. Would they?

If executed with masterful professionalism such scenario might not only restore Ukrainian sovereignty, but help reduce military tensions across Europe. BUT !
"Masterful professionalism" does not seem to be a Trump administration standard. There are countless ways in which such scenario could go cataclysmically wrong.

And in numerous such scenarios, a partial or total nuclear exchange between the U.S. and Russia might set civilization back by a century or more.

What's worth more to Trump? His bromance with Putin? Or winning a Nobel Prize?

If Trump has not ruled this out, has Trump warned / informed his senior military command, so the plan can be executed with Pentagon professionalism?
Or true to form would Trump prefer to spring this surprise on both Putin and Trump's own subordinates simultaneously?

Don't buy any green bananas?

 

[Shiftless2]

And according to the news Zelensky among others have said that no territories will be swapped.

 

[sear]

"And according to the news Zelensky among others have said that no territories will be swapped." #143

That's the (opening) position I'd expect Z to take.
Excluding Zelenskyy from the summit is exceedingly bad form. Bad form is Trump's style apparently.

None the less, while seeming to capitulate to Russia's knuckle-dragging barbarism may not be Zelenskyy's first choice, he could do worse.
For one thing, it may be one way to stop the carnage Russia is showering down on innocent Ukrainians.
For another, Zelenskyy / Ukraine may be able to win back territory by arranging plebiscites within contested territories.
In that way, Putin may actually lose territory if voters are as eager to join the West as the East Germans were. That's not a risk free option, but a long, grinding extension of years longer war may end up with more bloodshed, and less territory. BUT !

How's Trump going to seal such a deal without Zelenskyy present?

 

[Shiftless2]

Excluding Zelenskyy from the summit is exceedingly bad form. Bad form is Trump's style apparently.

.......

How's Trump going to seal such a deal without Zelenskyy present?

From a practical point of view, it doesn't matter what sort of agreement Trump and Putin reach, if Zelensky isn't willing to sign on it's just a scrap of paper with no binding import whatsoever.

None the less, while seeming to capitulate to Russia's knuckle-dragging barbarism may not be Zelenskyy's first choice, he could do worse.

Given Russia's history all that will happen is in a few months they'll be back to seize more territory.

 

[sear]

From a practical point of view, it doesn't matter what sort of agreement Trump and Putin reach, if Zelensky isn't willing to sign on it's just a scrap of paper with no binding import whatsoever." S2 #145

Of course. BUT !
There may be some detail that may seem minor, trivial, immaterial to Putin Trump during negotiation that Zelenskyy would understand, specify, and satisfactorily address, to the mutual benefit of not merely all 3 but the entire globe.
Engineering Zelenskyy out multiplies the risk that any such 3 party agreeable condition be overlooked because the victim in this negotiation is excluded.

"Given Russia's history all that will happen is in a few months they'll be back to seize more territory." S2 #145

It's as predictable as the sunrise. THAT'S why Putin / Russia should have been smacked down at the onset. BUT !!
To a lesser extent President Obama [D-IL] (Crimea) and to a greater extent President Biden [D-DE] (Ukraine proper) were to some degree nuclear blackmailed.
To the credit of these two Democrats, there has not yet been reported use of nuclear WMD in this Russian invasion / occupation of Ukraine. BUT !

It ain't over. And there doesn't seem to be much of a factual basis for optimism regarding the Alaska summit.

 

[Shiftless2]

To a lesser extent President Obama [D-IL] (Crimea) and to a greater extent President Biden [D-DE] (Ukraine proper) were to some degree nuclear blackmailed.
To the credit of these two Democrats, there has not yet been reported use of nuclear WMD in this Russian invasion / occupation of Ukraine. BUT !

And Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons because of guarantees they received from other countries - the US in particular.

... the US, along with the UK and Russia, provided security assurances to Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 in exchange for Ukraine giving up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union. This memorandum included pledges to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force

 

[sear]

"betray"
Perhaps I have psychological issues of my own, but it seems to me those that would EXPLICITLY make such security COMMITMENT, and then violate / disregard it are little if any better than the thug (Putin).

 

[Shiftless2]

Not just Putin ....

 

[sear]

"Not just Putin ...." S2 #149

True, BUT !
Putin is the one that's making a liar out of U.S. at the moment.

Personally I think betrayal is about as contemptuous as it gets, and I think battlefield betrayal is about the worst of the worst.