Could this strategy shut down Putin's aggression at Ukraine?

[sear]

"The real concern is if Putin is not given a "bloody Nose" he will later try it somewhere else, already as posted he has warned Finland and Sweden if they join N.A.T.O their turn is next." W #60

What greater incentive / justification could Finland have to join NATO as quickly as possible?

I am baffled about why Ukraine hasn't counter-attacked Russia. Russian military forces have laid waste to cities in Ukraine. So why hasn't Ukraine dropped a single bomb on the Kremlin?

 

[Wolf]

I am baffled about why Ukraine hasn't counter-attacked Russia. Russian military forces have laid waste to cities in Ukraine. So why hasn't Ukraine dropped a single bomb on the Kremlin? Sear
Excellent point. But they (the Ukraine's) lack means to inflect damage on Russia as such, and if they did would that not mean Putin could use a Nuclear device to take out area's where his troops have been "throw back". As posted my concern is "what happens next" after what happens in the Ukraine. If this War has shown anything, it has showed how Europe has not only "dangerously" allowed it's self to become dependent on Energy from Russia, but also the Western leaders have been "lolled" into a false sense of security. Putin is obviously has a sense of Russian history and what years ago the U.S.S.R. controlled and see's himself as a figure such as Stalin.
What I have found interesting is, looking back some near 100 years as to what Russian controlled then reading about how Stalin and Hitler before the European war in 1939 started they formed a close alliance and divided up Europe as to control. It show's in my mind how History has in some ways repeated it's self.
Putin at this time needs to show his Population he has achieved "something" so his now statement says that Russia will control the South and East of Ukraine. Plus in the next few days the U.S leaders will be visiting Ukraine where as the Germany "High Command" has been told "stay away". As already posted Europe and the World are going to go through a new approach to Russia and it remains to be seen whether China and India sill have a close relationship with Russia. Or may be a force will descend and sort out this World of ours.

 

[sear]

"Putin at this time needs to show his Population he has achieved "something" so his now statement says that Russia will control the South and East of Ukraine." W #62

It's inspirational that Putin's -3 day war- has at least dragged on for months. More rewarding still, that conquering all Ukraine now seems to be not a primary Kremlin ambition.

I was considering a few less likely options from Putin's suite of choices. One such choice which I offer as satire rather than prediction, Putin take a feeble stab at redeeming himself at this late age (is Putin 70?) by telling the truth:
- I Vladimir as among the most wealthy on Earth got bored and nostalgic for the Soviet era.
- I'm a victim of my own propaganda, believing my war on Ukraine would be a victory for Russia in less than a week.
- It's a jolting realization, but it's a new millennium, a new world. I understand that now.

Never gunna happin.
But anything less and Putin is a political pariah on Earth, except in Russia, China, ...

"Plus in the next few days the U.S leaders will be visiting Ukraine where as the Germany "High Command" has been told "stay away"." W #62

NBC News
President Zelenskyy met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Kyiv Sunday according to a Ukrainian adviser. The U.S. government has not commented on the visit. The high-stakes meeting comes as Ukrainians pray for a truce on Orthodox Easter. » Subscribe to NBC News: http://nbcnews.to/SubscribeToNBC

W,
It seems to me to be in part a chip on President Biden's shoulder, daring Putin to knock it off. If so I'd call that high-stakes politics, inviting a nuclear superpower to war, for the military assassination of a U.S. secretary of State or defense could / would surely be considered not merely an act of war, but a casus belli, justification for massive retaliation.

ca·sus bel·li (kā′səs bĕlī, kä′səs bĕlē) Share:​ n. pl. casus belli An act or event that provokes or is used to justify war. [New Latin cāsus bellī : Latin cāsus, occasion + Latin bellī, genitive of bellum, war.] The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition copyright ©2022 by HarperCollins Publishers. All rights reserved.

 

[Wolf]

Yes, I view your posts as if nothing else then a "picture" of what will or could come about.
But what we are IMHO dealing with is a "Leader" who thought he could achieve a victory in a few days. What has happened is that not only was he so badly ill-advised,
he now is in a very dangerous position regarding his own people. The Russian population is starting to suffer, and if that continues as we are seeing in China due to the Lock down with regards the Pandemic, people are starting turn.
And as your excellent "quote" regarding Religion, suggests "you can some fool some people some of the time, but can't fool all the people all the time". Again as posted I see a growing miss-trust of Politician's, and the emerging of so called Leaders, who could bring about an end to what we describe as Human, domination of this world.

 

[sear]

"a "Leader" who thought he could achieve a victory in a few days." W

One of two things is true.
- Either Putin believed that for a reason. Or
- Putin believed that for no reason.

I hope for an undertaking of that scale, he'd have had a reason. If so, what reason?

Worth noting, the high casualty count among Russian troops suggests they simply weren't adequately prepared for their mission. I don't yet know if Putin got good counsel, and ignored it, or whether he's surrounded himself with yes-men, and was never warned of what has happened.

"I am a good judge of people, animals and politician's." Grace06

 

[Wolf]

I miss Grace, she was a sort of balancing poster.
As for Ukraine, the latest quote we are seeing made by Putin is "if anyone interferes with Russian forces used in Ukraine a "swift and total response will be made" this is from a Leader now so immersed in his own dreams that the possibility of a Third world war is edging closer. He, Putin is reaching a stage where he thinks that by making more and more threats, is edging closer to using a Nuclear devise, which will lead to the West retuning same. China and it's total close down of normal life due it says to stamp out the Virus but is in turn causing more and more problems. It seems ironical that the Virus started there whether due to an accident in a Laboratory or by Nature but seems to be mutating, plus the ineffective vaccine they are and were using has made things worse.
IMHO it's a very dangerous situation and needs a very strong response from the West. And further, this crises has had a very marked effect of Europe. We have most countries doing everything they can to help the Ukrainians, where as France and Germany are still connected to receiving Gas and Oil from Russia, which in turn is keeping Putin "a float".

 

[sear]

“Perfect Masterpeice!” Grace06

She surely had a way of enriching interactions.

"France and Germany are still connected to receiving Gas and Oil from Russia, which in turn is keeping Putin "a float"." W #66

I understand why they wouldn't fall on their swords. To cut themselves off from the fuel their economies need to remain viable would be obvious economic suicide. If doing without such energy sources were easy ... it would be a different world.

Keeping Putin afloat:
I recently read an approximation, about a $Billion $Dollars a $Day in revenues for Russia. That amount of revenue would come in handy in Putin's Ukraine debacle.

"China and it's total close down of normal life due it says to stamp out the Virus but is in turn causing more and more problems." W #66

Obvious folly.
The World Health Organization helped remove smallpox from the environment, but to succeed, they had to cover the globe. As long as the rest of the world allows COVID-19 to flourish, China's attempt to eliminate it will inevitably be for naught.

 

[Wolf]

IMHO the real problems for the World are being to show, in that Russia and China being led by "un-elected" leaders do what they want, as to Putin well it's now fairly obvious he is trying be another Stalin, wanting in some adverse way to be remembered as a Russian Demi-God and doing what he attempting could bring about a Nuclear War. So if he did decide after loosing more ad more troops he got very little to lose if he dropped a Nuclear bomb I wonder what the repose of the West would be!!!!
But I further note that those helping Ukraine are "upping the stakes" by sending more and more weapons to Ukraine, so it's a real top deck of cards we are seeing played at this time. When what ever happens to this war in Ukraine ends, the next big question will be how the World leaders will react. This whole enterprise will have profound effect on "who trusts who" in tomorrows world.

 

[sear]

We already know Putin's model for global conquest. He appears to be failing badly. BUT !!

China has a substantially more sophisticated approach. You needn't check each of these links. Merely skimming the teaser texts reveals the controversy.

How China is bending the rules in the South China Sea

www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/how-china-bending-rules-south-china-sea

Feb 17, 2021 ... The conventional wisdom is that China claims sovereignty over “virtually all South China Sea islands and their adjacent waters.

Limits in the Seas #150: An Update on China's Illegal Activity in the ...

www.jtl.columbia.edu/bulletin-blog/limits-in-the-seas-150-an-update-on-chinas-illegal-activity-in-the-south-china-sea

Apr 13, 2022 ... Since 2013, China has engaged in dredging and artificial island-building, creating over 3,200 acres of new land. China has also deployed long- ...

China says South China Sea land reclamation 'justified' - BBC News

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29139125

Sep 10, 2014 ... Using the Chinese name for the Spratly islands, she added: "China asserts indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and the adjacent ...

The (Potentially) Legal Basis for China's Sovereignty Claims to Land ...

www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2528218/historically-mine-the-potentially-legal-basis-for-chinas-sovereignty-claims-to

Mar 8, 2021 ... Germany ceased conducting a survey of the islands in 1883, after the Qing dynasty protested the survey and claimed that the islands belonged to ...

China's Dredging Strategy in the South China Sea

thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2016/3/25/chinas-dredging-strategy-in-the-south-china-sea

Mar 24, 2016 ... As part of their efforts to assert their claim to ongoing sovereignty in the area, China is engaging in significant dredging operations ...

No, China Is Not Reclaiming Land in the South China Sea

thediplomat.com/2015/06/no-china-is-not-reclaiming-land-in-the-south-china-sea

Jun 7, 2015 ... In summary, China considers these features to be islands in the legal sense and therefore claims not only sovereignty over them but a ...

Massive Island-Building and International Law

amti.csis.org/massive-island-building-and-international-law

Jun 15, 2015 ... Therefore the island building activities at these reefs cannot be within China's sovereignty. Furthermore, it would be illegal for China or any ...

China's latest weapon against Taiwan: the sand dredger - Reuters ...

graphics.reuters.com/TAIWAN-CHINA/SECURITY/jbyvrnzerve

Feb 5, 2021 ... Chinese dredging ships are swarming Taiwan's Matsu Islands, forcing the local coast guard to run round-the-clock patrols. The tactic is part of ...

Xi Jinping and China's maritime policy - Brookings

www.brookings.edu/articles/xi-jinping-and-chinas-maritime-policy

Jan 22, 2019 ... Xi-era China's most consequential move has been the massive expansion of its outposts in the Spratly Islands. The PRC's artificial islands now ...

Why the US Navy sails past disputed artificial islands claimed by ...

abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-navy-sails-past-disputed-artificial-islands-claimed/story?id=60993256

May 6, 2019 ... The Spratly Islands are a collection of several dozen low-lying islands and reefs close to Borneo. In 2014 China began massive dredging ...

Competing Visions of International Order in the South China Sea

www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/china/315-competing-visions-international-order-south-china-sea

Nov 29, 2021 ... The South China Sea disputes are fundamentally about competing claims of sovereignty over hundreds of small maritime features and competing ...

That's not all China's up to lately:

Power relationships in Xi Jinping's China

To what extent will Xi Jinping consolidate power? Will he be victorious against party elders? We seek clues from personal data of key political figures.

asia.nikkei.com

China's been buying up mining contracts around the globe. That looks serious to me. During the Cold War there were "strategic minerals", raw material the U.S. needed to wage & win the Cold War. Some of those were raw materials mined from Soviet territory.
But what happens if China corners the market on raw materials essential for Western commerce, and then China shuts off the supply?

Instead of picking off wedding parties with predator drones the way the U.S. does, China's been to very poor or "3rd world" nations to provide simple aid, such as providing wells from which safe drinking water is obtained.
And China's also been involved in road building, and other ways to help.
Kudos to China for this.
How nice it would be to see China and the West team up to cooperatively expand these humanitarian efforts.

 

[sear]

Back to Ukraine / Russia / Putin:

Many corroborating reports from independent sources indicate Russia is using propaganda within Russia to keep the Russian people from turning against Putin & his Ukraine war.
Now it seems some of the splinters have become visible.

A Russian diplomat reportedly has resigned from his post in opposition to the "aggressive war unleashed by [President Vladimir] Putin against Ukraine" and the "warmongering, lies and hatred" coming from the country’s foreign ministry.

Boris Bondarev’s resignation letter was published by U.N. Watch, which describes itself as a "non-profit organization dedicated to holding the United Nations accountable to its founding principles."

"My name is Boris Bondarev, in the MFA of Russia since 2002, since 2019 until now — Counsellor of the Russian Mission to the UN Office at Geneva," he reportedly wrote. "For twenty years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy, but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on February 24 of this year."

Bondarev said on that date, the war unleashed by Putin "and in fact against the entire Western world, is not only a crime against the Ukrainian people, but also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia, with a bold letter Z crossing out all hopes and prospects for a prosperous free society in our country."

"Those who conceived this war want only one thing — to remain in power forever, live in pompous tasteless palaces, sail on yachts comparable in tonnage and cost to the entire Russian Navy, enjoying unlimited power and complete impunity," he said. "To achieve that they are willing to sacrifice as many lives as it takes. Thousands of Russians and Ukrainians have already died just for this."

Top Russia UN diplomat quits over Ukraine war, slams Putin

Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev says he is leaving his United Nations post because of President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and the behavior of the Russian Foreign Ministry

www.foxnews.com

Looks like Bondarev got tired of shilling for a tyrant.

In other news:
UKRAINE WAR CRIMES TRIAL: RUSSIAN SOLDIER SENTENCED TO LIFE IN PRISON FOR KILLING CIVILIAN

Not clear to me who will serve time where, after peace is negotiated, and POWs exchanged.

 

[titan]

Almost half of our energy system disabled: Ukraine PM​

The Ukrainian prime minister warns that Kyiv could face a ‘complete shutdown’ of the power grid due to Russian strikes.

Ukrainian tanks and military vehicles on a road in the Kherson region, Ukraine on November 18, 2022, as Russian missile strikes have crippled almost half of the country's energy system [Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters]
Published On 19 Nov 2022

Russian missile strikes have disabled almost half of Ukraine’s energy system, the government said on Friday, and authorities in the capital Kyiv warned that the city could face a “complete shutdown” of the power grid as winter sets in.
“Unfortunately Russia continues to carry out missile strikes on Ukraine’s civilian and critical infrastructure. Almost half of our energy system is disabled,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said during a joint news conference with Valdis Dombrovskis, a vice president in the European Commission.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/19/almost-half-of-our-energy-system-is-disabled-ukraine-pm

Putin's intention for Ukraine seems to have been what Putin accomplished with Crimea.

It should be evident to Putin by now his military prospects have vanished.

Therefore Russia's shift to damaging civilian infrastructure, water and power resources seem to be Putin's way of punishing the Ukranians. Is there strategic benefit to Russia in Putin's current strategy?

 

[titan]

Russia stands to lose its biggest tech company, which would throw a wrench in President Putin's plans to foster Russian-grown alternatives for Western technology.

Yandex, often referred to as Russia's Google, is the country's largest internet business best known for its search browser and ride-hailing apps. But its Dutch-based parent company, Yandex N.V., wants out of Russia because of the potential negative impact the Ukrainian invasion could have on its business, according to a report by The New York Times.

The exit of Russia's biggest tech company would deliver a blow to Putin, who has made a concerted effort to produce Russian technology and goods as sanctions cut access to Western suppliers.

Yandex N.V. said Friday that its board had "commenced a strategic process to review options to restructure the group's ownership and governance in light of the current geopolitical environment."

These options, Yandex said, included developing some of its international divisions "independently from Russia" and divesting "ownership and control of all other businesses in the Yandex Group." The company added: "This process is at a preliminary stage."

The Bell, a Russian media group, had earlier reported that Yandex N.V. would move its new businesses and most promising technologies — including self-driving cars, machine learning, and cloud-computing services — outside of Russia, the Times reported, citing two anonymous sources familiar with the matter. Those businesses would need access to Western markets, experts, and technology, all of which is unviable while the Russian invasion of Ukraine rages on and Western sanctions remain in place.

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine is pushing out one of Russia's biggest tech giants

Yandex, Russia's biggest tech company, wants to cut ties with the country because of the Ukrainian invasion, according to a New York Times report.

www.yahoo.com

The harm Putin has already done to Russia only grows worse as his Ukraine war degrades to vandalism. Russian forces when not retreating concentrate their efforts on making life difficult for Ukrainian civilians, deactivating portions of Ukraine's power grid, and other infrastructure. It seems Putin has already lost his war, but is too stubborn, and indifferent to the human misery he spreads to Ukrainian civilians and his own combat troops, to admit it.

 

[sear]

t #72
Some observers with insight on Putin suggest Putin perceives Ukraine as rightfully a part of Russia (in part for Soviet reason). So regarding his War in Ukraine, Putin is wrong about that, and much else. For obvious example Russia's battlefield strategy initially was to storm to Ukraine's capital for purpose of conquest & assimilation.
Didn't work.
So now Russia's vandalizing civilian infrastructure including the commercial power grid, and water supply, etc. The Russian notion there seems to be: if we make life miserable enough for Ukraine's citizens, they'll give up and submit to Russian control, because it will mean an improvement in their standard of living. Perhaps Putin is stupid enough to believe they'll believe that. If so, he's wrong.

Ukraine can't -quit & go home-. Neither could the South Vietnamese, or the Afghanis. So ending this Russian War in Ukraine will require Russia quitting and going home. And short of a People's revolt based on perhaps the upward-spiraling Russian casualty count, that may not be forthcoming.

I believe a counter-attack, Ukraine inflicting as much havoc on Moscow as Russia has inflicted on Kyiv. I realize Ukraine's military isn't designed for that. But I suspect if ever it happens, it'll be a persuasive influence for Putin to pack it up.

 

[Borg Refinery]

He should be near the end now [Putin]. I think Russia is financially and probably mentally exhausted.

 

[sear]

He should be near the end now [Putin]. I think Russia is financially and probably mentally exhausted.

Problem is, your assessment seems rational to me. I'm not sure Putin's approach is rational. I suspect Putin's approach to his War in Ukraine is, keep at it until Russia wins, no matter what the cost.
Reports I've read from the battlefield indicate Russia has a rather Klingon-like approach to its own troops. Reportedly Russian troops injured so severely in Ukraine that they can't return to their base camp with their unit are frequently left to die. That obviously increases the casualty count for Russia. Putin doesn't seem to mind.

Putin has already lost. There isn't really a plausible scenario for Russian victory here. But it seems Putin's view is, as long as he keeps marching his own troops into the meat-grinder, Russia hasn't officially lost. Putin's already tried to recruit enough more troops to shift the contest to Russia's favor. But reportedly the backlash was so severe Putin seems to have suspended, if not abandoned that approach.

How many more will die? How many will spend a miserable Winter without commercial electric power, and or home heating fuel?

I also wonder if there wasn't more the West could have done to simply persuade Putin not even to try, rather than allowing Putin to learn this costly lesson on his own.

 

[Borg Refinery]

They should internally take care of Putin in short order - at least that's my hope.

 

[sear]

Washington Post reports:
U.S. to train Ukraine troops at Fort Sill, Oklahoma to operate Patriot air defense.

Normally this training is reportedly conducted over a period of months. Evidently somehow with the additional complication of a substantial language barrier, U.S. authorities plan to reduce that duration substantially.

 

[sear]

PS

Vladimir Putin’s budget faces ‘catastrophe’ after Western price cap spells doom for Russian oil exports​

Christiaan Hetzner Tue, January 10, 2023 at 8:19 AM EST·4 min read

The West's price cap on Russian crude oil could have a catastrophic effect on Vladimir Putin’s finances and force the pariah state into imposing austerity measures this year.
The price of the “Urals” benchmark grade of crude oil exported from Russia has been falling steadily since the cap went into effect on Dec. 5. At that level, production can continue, but at a level much closer to extraction costs, thereby greatly diminishing Russian profits.
“The price on Urals crude is down sharply versus Brent since the start of the G7 cap,” wrote Robin Brooks, chief economist of the international finance industry lobby group IIF. “That’s good, as Putin gets less cash to fight his war.”
Last year, the average price for Russia’s “Urals” benchmark grade was $76.09 per barrel, the country's finance ministry said last week.
The price plummeted in December, however. In the first month of the cap, it fell to an average of just $50.47 per barrel, down nearly a third from the comparable period a year earlier.
Worse for Moscow, Urals crude recently traded at $38—below the $40 threshold that many believe to be Russia’s production cost.
“The Ministry of Finance confirmed that everything with regard to Urals prices is not just bad, but very bad,” Cetrocredit Bank economist Yevgeny Suvorov told the Moscow Times. “$40 per barrel can be a real catastrophe for the budget and economy... If it becomes clear that $45–$50 is a new normal, the finance ministry will have to switch to an austerity regime this year.”

European dilemmas​

One of the dilemmas Europe has faced is how to end its dependency on Russian imports that fund Putin’s war effort at a time when the invasion itself has driven up global energy prices and filled the Kremlin’s coffers.
An oil embargo effectively imposed by the EU did not help, since it is believed Europe imported crude from ships flown under neutral third-country flags—or even EU ones like Greece—that may have secretly blended their cargo with millions of barrels of Russian oil sold at a war premium.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-putin-budget-faces-catastrophe-131938220.html

 

[sear]

The sinews of war, a limitless supply of money. Cicero (106-43 B.C.)

Putin made a big bet that energy sales would fund his war in Ukraine. A new report shows that he was very wrong​

Tristan Bove Wed, January 11, 2023 at 4:53 PM EST

Vladimir Putin’s hope that oil and gas revenues would help Russia’s economy weather the storm of sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine took a big hit in December, when Russian fossil fuel sales collapsed.
Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues fell 17% last month to their lowest level since before the war began, according to a study published Wednesday by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an independent think tank based in Finland that focuses on energy and pollution.
After the EU imposed new restrictions on Russian energy in December, Russia’s net energy export revenues declined €160 million ($172 million) a day. Russia continues to rake in huge amounts from its fossil fuel trade—around €640 million ($689 million) daily—but the study found that even stricter policies against Russian energy would deal a devastating blow to the country’s economy, and potentially weaken Putin’s ability to maintain his costly war in Ukraine.
“The short-term windfall generated to Russia by sky-high fossil fuel prices in 2022 is starting to wear out,” the study’s authors wrote. “Further cuts to Kremlin’s revenue will therefore materially weaken the country’s ability to continue its assault and help bring the war to an end.”

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-made-big-bet-energy-215331681.html
In addition:

Tanks appears headed to Ukraine, breaking a taboo​

The West has sent an array of weapons once seen as too provocative, and it looks like tanks will be next. With a new Russian offensive expected, officials see a need to shift balance.

 

[sear]

He should be near the end now [Putin]. I think Russia is financially and probably mentally exhausted.

I envy you your optimism BR. I'm from New York. So how about a counter:

If Zelenskyy waits while the West takes its own sweet time, Russia will continue to destroy Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Some death counts go as high as 150,000 dead for Russia, and 100,000 dead for Ukraine.

Extrapolate the current trend, to determine where the war would be in a year or two, what Ukraine's additional losses would be. Factor in the loss of infrastructure too, and whatever additional detriment the war imposes. Contrast that with
Zelenskyy working some kind of "surrender" or cease-fire deal, tricking Putin into thinking the war is over, and then Ukraine turning the war into an insurgency, still running Ukraine's government underground, and bumping off Russian occupiers, disrupting the occupation enough so that it's not sustainable. Isn't that what got the Soviets out of Afghanistan?

I understand President Zelenskyy doesn't want to "surrender". But even if he used the word "surrender" it would actually merely be a subterfuge of war. Worth noting, there are probably ways to do that which would violate international law. So those details would have to be planned in advance. If it's illegal to call it "surrender" Zelenskyy could call it a "settlement", or merely an "agreement".

I lack the "boots on the ground" perspective. But a competent general military officer should be able to determine which of these strategies would be best for Ukraine.

PS
Not sure if such strategy would help reclaim Crimea. But it occurs to me accomplished, experienced insurgents that expelled Russia from Ukraine might then migrate to Crimea to practice their skills repatriating Crimea.