Anthropogenic Global Warming ... how hot is it ?

By Michael G. Malloy
" In the same month, torrential rains in Vermont and New York’s Hudson Valley " #60
Though you well know this S2, some may have overlooked, while globalization might in some ways seem to buffer supply chain kinks, not necessarily. Drought in Central America can interrupt supply in North America.
The Panama Canal is a major bottleneck for international trans-oceanic shipping.
This canal does not rely on pumps, instead raising ships within the canal's locks with water drained from rain-fed reservoirs. Less rain means fewer ships can transit directly between Atlantic & Pacific oceans.
Earlier this year, authorities cut the number of ships passing through the canal for the first time ever.
The measures already in place have caused long delays, with tens of ships having to wait to use the canal.
Those delays have "pushed shipping rates higher elsewhere by decreasing the globally available number of vessels," according to an analyst note from the US Energy Information Administration.
Water levels in Gatun Lake, the rainfall-fed reservoir that is the main source of water used in the canal's lock system, have "continued to decline to unprecedented levels for this time of year," according to the ACP.
Starting from 3 November, booking slots will be cut to 25 per day from an already reduced 31 per day, the ACP said.
That number will be further reduced over the next three months to 18 slots per day from the start of February 2024.
In recent months, the ACP has imposed various passage restrictions to conserve scarce water.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67281776
booo ! Not the Halloween kind, the inconvenienced consumer kind.
 
Insurance (and reinsurance) is a global business.

The guys that issue homeowners' insurance have to buy "cat covers" (i.e., catastrophic reinsurance to protect them in case of a catastrophic loss - hurricane, earthquake, whatever)

And since the big players in that field are all global companies what happens elsewhere in the world affects them - it doesn't necessarily result in immediately higher premiums but it does restrict their "capacity" (their ability to absorb large losses). End result is their capital becomes more expensive and that has a knock on effect all the way down to those primary policies.
 
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"The guys that issue homeowners' insurance have to buy "cat covers" ..." #62
The insurers are insured (for most eventualities).

I sincerely appreciate both your mastery of this, and your skill at presenting it to the layman. Wouldn't surprise me if you've spent some time at college, at "the big desk".

Perhaps past my bedtime, but I'm struck by the similarities in buffering risk by insurance companies, and buffering financial transients institutions, including keeping enough at the bank to discourage a bank run. Both insurer and bank buffer against disaster.

The embarrassing irony here is that this business perspective, the quantified (monetized?) POV omits the human aspect, lost lives, disrupted families, etc.

It is after all a quantification, and quantity and quality are not synonyms. Some may use this as a coping mechanism.


ref:

Lloyd's of London​

Insurance market located in the City of London​



Lloyd's of London, generally known simply as Lloyd's, is a British insurance and reinsurance market located in London, England. Unlike most of its competitors in the industry, it is not an insurance company; rather, Lloyd's is a corporate body governed by the Lloyd's Act 1871 and subsequent Acts of Parliament. It operates as a partially-mutualised marketplace within which multiple financial backers, grouped in syndicates, come together to pool and spread risk. These underwriters, or "members", are a collection of both corporations and private individuals, the latter being traditionally known as "Names".
The business underwritten at Lloyd's is predominantly general insurance and reinsurance, although a small number of syndicates write term life insurance. The market has its roots in marine insurance and was founded by Edward Lloyd at his coffee house on Tower Street in c. 1688. Today, it has a dedicated building on Lime Street which is Grade I listed. Traditionally business is transacted at each syndicate's "box" in the underwriting "Room" within this building, with the policy document being known as a "slip", but in more recent years it has become increasingly common for business to be conducted outside of the Lloyd's building itself, including remotely.
The market's motto is Fidentia, Latin for "confidence", and it is closely associated with the Latin phrase uberrima fides, or "utmost good faith", representing the relationship between underwriters and brokers.
Having survived multiple scandals and significant challenges through the second half of the 20th century, most notably the asbestosis affair, Lloyd's today promotes its strong financial "chain of security" available to promptly pay all valid claims. This chain consists of £55.2 billion of syndicate-level assets, £31bn of members' "funds at Lloyd's" and £4.9bn in a third mutual link which includes the "Central Fund" and which is under the control of the Council of Lloyd's.
In 2021 there were 75 syndicates managed by 50 "managing agencies" that collectively wrote £39.2bn of gross premiums on risks placed by 388 registered brokers. Around half of Lloyd's premiums emanate from North America and around one-quarter from Europe. Direct insurance represented 63 per cent of the premiums, mostly covering property and casualty (liability), while the remaining 37 per cent was reinsurance.
More from Wikipedia
Wikipedia text under CC-BY-SA license
 
Lloyds is an interesting beast - it almost went under In the 1990's but was saved by the 1996 establishment of Equitas which was designed to assume the non-life liabilities of the 1992 and prior underwriting years.

The creation of Equitas is a fascinating story in itself (and no, I'm not going to try to summarize it because it'll just get lost in (re)insurance terminology). Suffice it to say that the structure of Lloyds is "complicated" and, pre-Equitas all Lloyds "names" had unlimited liability (that is, if you as an individual wanted to invest in Lloyds if stuff hit the fan you accepted unlimited liability so you were on the hook for every last penny you owned (fact is, there were a lot of "deficit millionaires" - people who were in debt to Lloyds for more than a million pounds sterling).

It's interesting to see what Heidi had to say about the reinsurance world in those days (she oversaw the establishment of Equitas).


If you want a lot more information you can look here


To be honest I haven't even tried to read any of this - I lived thru it as a spectator (I was not at Lloyds) - we were all watching anxiously.

I can only think of a couple of friends who were natural names at the time. The only one that's "interesting" is the father of a good friend - we were all watching what was going on and he remarked that he had a lot of good wine that he'd bought as futures and stored in a climate controlled warehouse in London - I remember him saying that there was no way he was going to turn this over to the liquidators so if things didn't work out we were headed to London where we were going to do our best to drink it - all of it.
 
Inflation, High Interest Rates, and Catastrophes Contribute to 2023 Underwriting Loss for P&C Industry, New Triple-I/Milliman Report Shows
Triple-I: Loretta Worters; Milliman: Jeremy Engdahl-Johnson

The 2023 net combined ratio for the property/casualty industry is forecast to be 103.8, in part due to severe convective storm losses being the highest in decades. Hard markets continue with 2023 net written premium growth forecast at 8.3%, according to the latest underwriting projections by actuaries at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman.

The quarterly report, Insurance Economics and Underwriting Objections: A Forward View, was presented on Nov. 2, at an exclusive members only virtual webinar.

Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, Chief Economist and Data Scientist at Triple-I, discussed key ....


Definitions:

Underwriting loss means that premiums are less than the insurer's losses and expenses
Combined ratio is the ratio of losses and expenses to premiums.
 

Insurance claims from Maui wildfires soar above $1 billion


A breakdown of the first insurance data for the Maui wildfires shows more than 6, 079 residential property and personal motor vehicle claims totaling more than $1.35 billion have been filed for losses in West Maui and Upcountry Maui.

The preliminary data released Monday by the state Insurance Division is current through Sept. 30, and was gathered from more than 200 property and casualty insurers and surplus lines carriers doing business in Hawaii that responded to a call for data from the department.

The data, which shows the depth of the losses and needs following ...


It's a given that more will follow - and this is only residential and personal auto - commercial claims will be in addition

Edited to add: these are insured losses. Not economic losses - the uninsured losses here are going to be huge
 
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Inflation, High Interest Rates, and Catastrophes Contribute to 2023 Underwriting Loss for P&C Industry, New Triple-I/Milliman Report Shows
Triple-I: Loretta Worters; Milliman: Jeremy Engdahl-Johnson

The 2023 net combined ratio for the property/casualty industry is forecast to be 103.8, in part due to severe convective storm losses being the highest in decades. Hard markets continue with 2023 net written premium growth forecast at 8.3%, according to the latest underwriting projections by actuaries at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman.

The quarterly report, Insurance Economics and Underwriting Objections: A Forward View, was presented on Nov. 2, at an exclusive members only virtual webinar.

Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, Chief Economist and Data Scientist at Triple-I, discussed key ....


Definitions:

Underwriting loss means that premiums are less than the insurer's losses and expenses
Combined ratio is the ratio of losses and expenses to premiums.
As insurance companies are in the insurance bidness I'm guessing wildly they know this.
We may have touched on this earlier. Is it that government regulation prevents insurers from simply updating the numbers so they can continue to operate with reasonable $profit $margin in the new hot globe environment?

If not that, what?
And if that, what's the obstacle? Political / partisan obstructionism is a higher priority than good governance?
 
Depending on the state and the line of business insurance companies have to file their rating plans - in some cases it's "prior approval" (i.e., the insurance dep't has to approve those rates which means that the department actuaries have to review the corporate actuaries' work and say yay or nay.
 
With four months of 2023 still left, the US has set a record for the most natural disasters in a single year that have cost $1bn or more, as fires, floods and ferocious winds were among deadly events experts warn are being turbo-charged by the climate crisis.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) announced on Monday that there have already been 23 extreme weather events in the US this year that have ...

 

Return of El Nino climate poses tornado danger to Central Florida, forecasters warn

Experts see comparable risk to 1998, which brought 42 deaths to greater Orlando

National Weather Service experts warned Wednesday that the rise of a potent, global climate bully has set the stage for violent weather and killer tornadoes in Central Florida from now until spring.

With one occurring every few to seven years at varying strengths, an El Niño ocean-warming phase is taking shape as among the stronger on record and is forecast to have a high probability of ushering powerful storm systems across the Gulf of Mexico into the Orlando region and other parts of Florida through March.

National Weather Service officials said conditions now in place put ...

 
"the US has set a record for the most natural disasters in a single year that have cost $1bn or more, as fires, floods and ferocious winds were among deadly events experts warn are being turbo-charged by the climate crisis." #70
The public relations obstacle here is that there have always been fires, floods, and winds. Though that's not much,
it's enough to provide climate change deniers a fig leaf.

The result is the "adults" in the climate-change room must battle not only the fossil fuel (Carbon) loving horde, 8 billion and counting,
and the myopic deniers that prioritize their own personal short-term self=interest ahead of the long-term survival of the species, the human species.

Imagine the Republican political backlash against any attempt to introduce contemporary climatology to the U.S. public school curriculum.
Such public education would risk a climate s a v v y electorate, a risk the GOP evidently is not willing to risk. Planetary genocide is better?
 
Note that this does not refer to the premiums paid by individual condo owners but rather to those paid by the condo association (i.e., the entire building and grounds). I'm sure that individual owners are getting hit with nasty increases as well.

'We do not have insurance. We have an insurance bill': Condos hit with 563% rate increase

Mark Harper, USA TODAY

DAYTONA BEACH SHORES, Florida – Tom Baker lives in a retirement dream building: A spacious three-bedroom beachside condo with unobstructed morning sunrises, waves marking the time and the soft sand of comfort.

The retired Marine and Army veteran and his wife Joan moved here from the Tampa Bay area. She had a Daytona Beach timeshare they regularly visited. Ten years ago they moved to their retirement home: a fourth-story condo on the Atlantic Ocean.

“I absolutely love Daytona Beach,” he said. “I absolutely love where I live, and I love this building.”

Daytona Beach Shores condo owner Tom Baker sent a six-page memo to all of Florida's senators and representatives, seeking help to rein in property insurance costs. He said one of the 160 legislators, Sen. Jason Pizzo, D-Sunny Isles Beach, responded to him.

Daytona Beach Shores condo owner Tom Baker sent a six-page memo to all of Florida's senators and representatives, seeking help to rein in property insurance costs. He said one of the 160 legislators, Sen. Jason Pizzo, D-Sunny Isles Beach, responded to him.

So why does he seem so angry? Two words: Property insurance.

For Baker and many other Florida condo owners, the very concept of insurance – to ease worries during times of distress – seems lost, especially after ....


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If these are the increases that the insurance companies asked for (and that were approved by the Department of Insurance) my gut feel is that the raw actuarial numbers were significantly higher.
 
So if inflation is wobbling around 4% * not clear to me why condo insurance would climb orders of magnitude faster.
Because losses are increasing at a far higher rate than inflation.

It is true that inflation is one of the drivers of the increase in claim costs (and hence premiums) but it's far from the only one. Or even the biggest one.

An increase in the number AND severity of natural disasters is likely the biggest contributor (read some of the earlier posts on that topic). And it's worth noting that the condo in the headline is a beachfront property. That means that in addition to being exposed to the wind it's also exposed to the storm surge. Not a good thing.

 
sear blurted out his amorphous puzzlement. With professional expertise and clarity S2 enlightened:
Because losses are increasing at a far higher rate than inflation.
My real bad.
That is indeed the case. BUT !
By conventional standards of meteorological quantification, the affects of global warming are not orders of magnitude worse. But the insured losses may be. How is that possible?

It seems, when we build hotels a foot or two above the high-water mark, such structures are intrinsically vulnerable.

Thus (apparently) a change of just a few percent by conventional meteorological standards (4% more rain) seem to have resulted in a shift of orders of magnitude in insurance operations.

I apologize S2. I should have thought it through.
 
Think about a "simple" example. In 1992 Hurricane Andrew caused $27.3 billion in damage (equivalent to $57 billion in 2022). That's inflation.

And don't forget that as cities expand, what was once vacant land is suddenly a fully developed city so the identical storm is going to level far more buildings today than 30 years ago.

But think what would have happened if that storm had made landfall 100 miles farther north - that would have hit Miami and the damages would be far larger (at the time the best estimates were north of $100 billion in 1992 dollars).

And the various catastrophe models take that sort of thing into account.
 
Floridians were none too happy with Allstate following Andrew. Policy holders are at the mercy of claims adjusters.
 
Andrew actually put some smaller players out of business. And some of the big national players ended up contributing serious money (as in a billion plus) to their Florida subs.
 
"Andrew caused $27.3 billion in damage (equivalent to $57 billion in 2022). That's inflation." S2 #77
I'm not trying to ignore the important point here, but this suggests to me inflation has cut $buying $power in half in 3 decades. That doesn't help assuage my climate change woes. That's big.
"Allstate" t #78
- snicker -
I don't mean to make mirth t #78. There are clichés about Florida, "snow birds" for example. You've got me mentally adding Allstate to AAA to my mental list.
"Andrew actually put some smaller players out of business. And some of the big national players ended up contributing serious money (as in a billion plus) to their Florida subs." S2 #79
Not seeking a tar-&-feather overcoat here, but "insurance" is now gaining my interest on sociological scale, historic scale. It reminds me of what Tyson said:
"As the area of our knowledge grows, so too does the perimeter of our ignorance." Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson
One of the signs reminding me of my own aging, the broadening scope of things I find "interesting".
 
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