Anthropogenic Global Warming ... how hot is it ?

[Shiftless2]

It's not just floodplains ...

The scramble to fix California’s home insurance mess failed. Here’s what will happen next​

BY SAM DEAN

The remains of a home smolders during the Caldor fire in Twin Bridges, Calif., on Sept. 1, 2021. Since the beginning of the year, companies representing more than half of California’s $12-billion home insurance market have stopped or limited new policies, citing ballooning costs and risks.

New home buyers — and people getting dropped from their existing coverage — have had a tough time finding homeowners insurance this summer in California as more and more major insurers stop writing new policies in the state.

State lawmakers spent recent weeks trying to piece together a deal that would make it easier for companies to charge higher prices, in the hopes of enticing carriers to reopen for new business. As the clock struck midnight on Monday night, marking the final deadline for introducing a new bill to be voted on before Thursday’s close of the legislative session, a deal had failed to materialize.

But major changes to the state’s current regulatory regime could still come this year, whether by action from Gov. Gavin Newsom or, more directly, from Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, who oversees the state’s insurance regulatory system. The state Assembly will also hold more hearings on the topic this fall, which could set the stage for legislative change next year.

“We just couldn’t find that sweet spot in protecting our consumers and creating a stable insurance market,” said Sen. Bill Dodd (D-Napa), who represents a wine region that has seen ...

The scramble to fix California's home insurance mess failed. Here's what will happen next

The deadline for a deal to address the home insurance market came and went in the California Legislature, but the problem persists.

www.latimes.com

 

[sear]

"It's not just floodplains ..." S2 #21

Indeed, it's global. Animal habitat ranges are shifting to accommodate.

I'm OK w/ letting the market handle this. It's beautiful to live in the forest, but far from risk-free. Perhaps that burned out house was (amateurishly) made of CMU (ceramic) in the hope that if a tree fell on it, the exterior walls of the home would protect the inhabitants. I wouldn't bet my life on it.
Such building material is also flame retardant, as the picture demonstrates. Metal roof seems a good choice. So what caught fire?

 

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Looks like the interior as well as the roof trusses

 

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The Crisis in Flood Insurance​

We may finally see consumers start to change their behaviors, either leaving risky areas or fortifying their homes and businesses.
Paul Carroll

The flood insurance crisis in the U.S., which has been described as a "slow-moving hurricane," has made landfall, hitting Louisiana especially hard.

Rising premiums, to reflect soaring claims from natural catastrophes, are now hitting consumers hard enough that Louisiana and nine other states have sued to block increases in national flood insurance rates. Those increases are limited to "only" 18% a year but could eventually total more than 700% for many homeowners and businesses and cause an exodus from southern Louisiana, according to testimony at a hearing last week.

Politicians can be expected to use regulation to protect consumers -- also known as voters -- as long as possible, but, beyond some short-term issues, insurers can't be forced to lose money. Government officials may also decide to subsidize homeowners' insurance policies, but that isn't a long-term strategy, either. Those taxpayers whose flood insurance premiums stay the same or even decline will resist subsidizing those who choose to live with greater risks.

Something has to give. We may finally see consumers start to change their behaviors, either leaving risky areas or fortifying their homes and businesses.

The stats show why push has finally come to shove. Swiss Re reports, "From 2017 onwards, average annual insured losses from natural catastrophes have been over USD 110 billion, more than double the average of USD 52 billion over the previous five-year period.... In the coming decade, hazard intensification will likely ...

The Crisis in Flood Insurance | Insurance Thought Leadership

The flood insurance crisis in the U.S., which has been described as a "slow-moving hurricane," has made landfall, hitting Louisiana especially hard.

www.insurancethoughtleadership.com

 

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The Swiss Re report linked in the above article makes interesting reading

In 5 charts: continued high losses from natural catastrophes in 2022​

In 2022, around 45% of USD 275 billion in global economic losses from natural disasters were covered by insurance. We see a long-term growth trend of 5-7% in annual insured losses, mainly driven by rising loss severity of individual catastrophe events.

Continued

 

[sear]

"what caught fire?" s #22

"Looks like the interior as well as the roof trusses" #23

Yes but there must be a path of combustion / ignition to get from the flame-retardant outside to the combustible components inside. Perhaps the windows were wood-frame, or if vinyl, they melted or burned, breaching the masonry.
Being flame retardant might have been the design intention in #21. Almost.
That seems to be why it almost didn't catch fire.

#24
I slept on a water bed. This water-floor idea is news to me.

"Politicians can be expected to use regulation to protect consumers -- also known as voters -- as long as possible, but ..." #24

Inevitable I suppose. I'm opposed to it.
If it's too expensive to live there, don't live there.

 

[Shiftless2]

... but there must be a path of combustion / ignition to get from the flame-retardant outside to the combustible components inside. Perhaps the windows were wood-frame, or if vinyl, they melted or burned, breaching the masonry.

And it's quite possible (probable?) that the metal roof got so hot that the wooden trusses supporting it caught fire. Reality is, it doesn't matter how it caught on fire just that it did.

 

[sear]

In the case of #21 I'm guessing combustibles near the structure made flame that reached the eaves.
The heat doesn't seem to have been that intense there. I'm not sure the tall trees in the pic are dead, perhaps merely scorched.
If the fire didn't breach the tree bark, would it have breached corrugated roofing steel?

"And it's quite possible (probable?) that the metal roof got so hot that the wooden trusses supporting it caught fire. Reality is, it doesn't matter how it caught on fire just that it did." S2 #27

In the case of #21 we surely can't unring the bell. BUT:
My reason for the failure analysis is to raise the issue of whether it's purely (100%) a matter of location / habitat, or whether such losses result from inadequate design.
- If the issue is purely habitat, then we'll never be able to have permanent homes there (though perhaps a vacation trailer or tent).
- But if we learn what caused the failure in #21 we can build structures without that (wildfire-proof).

In the portion of New York State I live in we have building codes that require stronger roof structure than building codes in New York's Southern tier.
That's because we're in the lee of Great Lakes, Erie & Ontario. We get "lake effect" snow, over 100" of snow per year.
Roof collapse / structural failure is a common mode of failure for buildings around here. I lost a tool shed to it.

Bottom line:
if we perceive this as an insurance problem, we're stuck in an insoluble cycle. BUT !!
If instead we figure out a way to convert this into an engineering problem, it then becomes soluble, because:
the fabulous thing about engineering problems is they have engineering solutions.

Build structures there that are fireproof, and if falling trees are a risk, either cut the trees down, or insure the structure is strong enough to withstand both impact & weight.

 

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That works if the concern is lake effect snow or falling trees - doesn't stop droughts and extreme heat that set the forests on fire - doesn't stop flooding because of torrential rain - doesn't stop an increase in the number of hurricane and/or cyclones that are intensified because of global warming - doesn't stop whatever

So their is still an insurance problem - obviously part of the solution is to simply "not build/live there". But that doesn't solve the problem for areas that are already built up.

And it doesn't eliminate much (most) of the $275 million in global economic losses Swiss Re refers to since a very large part of that won't be insured - includes a lot more than just property damage.

 

[sear]

I'm striking out as a communicator here.
The purpose of my roof collapse example was merely to demonstrate building codes can vary. Obviously strengthening roof structure to withstand snowload wouldn't help much in a highly flammable ecosystem. THEREFORE
In flammable environments impose building codes that render architectural structures fireproof.

The premise here is that global warming (AGW) has driven insurance costs far higher than $inflation *. Part of that according to the illustration in #21 is a higher attrition rate for woodland buildings. BUT !!
Rendering all future buildings in such environment fireproof would reduce wildfire losses, if not to near zero, at least far lower than the rates causing these policy cancellations. Thereby solving the problem without creating a new government subsidy by the $poor, to the $rich.

* out of feasibility for insureds and insurers alike

 

[Shiftless2]

Rendering all future buildings in such environment fireproof ...

True - but unless the building literally qualifies as "pig iron under water" (old inland marine insurance term) there is no such thing as "fireproof".

And instituting rules for new construction doesn't resolve the issue for existing buildings.

 

[Shiftless2]

This is not good - be prepared for a bumpy ride

First ever images of Antarctica's 'Doomsday glacier' show melting from below

New studies of one of the most deteriorating antarctic glaciers have found new data on its melting.

abcnews.go.com

 

[sear]

"This is not good - be prepared for a bumpy ride" S2 #32

Pardon the resemblance to mixed metaphor,
a prominent feature of Trump / MAGA politics is making "appealing *" promises never to be kept.

Bottom line, they know they're being lied to, and they seem delighted about it.

That's an enlightening if alarming parallel to the deniers of anthropogenic climate change.
They're being lied to. BUT !! It ameliorates their guilt & shame for commuting to the coal mine in their Hummers.

Differences of opinion long pre-dated the U.S. Founding. But scientific reality does not require validation of public opinion.

“You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.” Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY)

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored ~ Aldous Huxley

* "appealing" to a simpleminded minority

 

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We were warned a long time ago (note the date on this article)

 

[sear]

AlGore (the one that won the vote but lost the Y2K election) was sounding the alarm on this since before the documentary An Inconvenient Truth, Gore's warning about global warming.

That's a practical distinction between what is un/popular and what is true.

 

[Shiftless2]

Gore's movie isn't as accurate as many seem to think

Truth is, Gore film has 9 errors, British judge rules

A british judge has ruled the Oscar-winning film on global warming, "An Inconvenient Truth," contains "nine errors. " High Court Judge Michael...

www.seattletimes.com

 

[sear]

Gore's movie isn't as accurate as many seem to think

Truth is, Gore film has 9 errors, British judge rules

A british judge has ruled the Oscar-winning film on global warming, "An Inconvenient Truth," contains "nine errors. " High Court Judge Michael...

www.seattletimes.com

I appreciate this clarification S2 #36.

BN offers several books listing AlGore as author: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/s/al gore/_/N-8q8

To be clear, Gore is rather more a politician than a scientist. Thus Gore's science may be more flawed than his politics.
Whether the "9 errors" / #36 were deliberately intended to swindle, or merely failures to accurately apply scientific prediction, not sure.

By & large anyone with as much political experience as AlGore has, knows that if their message is legitimate, factual error in communicating it does not promote the cause, but is instead a detriment to it.

However flawed the details of the message may have been, the overall message seems to stand up fairly well to intervening decades of well $monied scrutiny. BUT !

Thanks S2 #36

It may seem to some there's an agenda here prioritized higher than utilitarianism.
Generally no.

- A N D !! -

Any that question that are invited / urged to challenge it here. Aristotle said opposition is the path to truth.
It's why we have our political candidates debate issues before the election. A vibrant democratic republic requires an intelligent, informed electorate.

mer·i·toc·ra·cy (mĕr′ĭ-tŏkrə-sē) n. pl. mer·i·toc·ra·cies 1. A system in which advancement is based on individual ability or achievement. 2. a. A group of leaders or officeholders selected on the basis of individual ability or achievement. b. Leadership by such a group. merit·o·crat′ (-ĭ-tə-krăt′) n. mer′it·o·cratic adj. The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition copyright ©2022 by HarperCollins Publishers. All rights reserved.

 

[Shiftless2]

More on insurance

10,500+ Nationwide homeowners' policies in NC dropped, including some in OBX​

10,500+ Nationwide homeowners' policies in NC dropped, including some in the Outer Banks
Julia Varnier

NORTH CAROLINA — Nationwide will not renew homeowners insurance policies for 10,525 households in North Carolina, more than half of them due to hurricane risks, according to Jason Tyson, NCDOI communications director for the North Carolina Department of Insurance (NCDOI).

The majority are in the eastern part of the state, however, more than 1,000 of the nonrenewals are on the Outer Banks, with 838 in ...

10,500+ Nationwide homeowners' policies in NC dropped, including some in OBX

1,000 of the nonrenewals are on the Outer Banks, with 838 in Dare County, 220 in Currituck County and 52 in Hyde County

www.wtkr.com

 

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This article is behind a paywall so I can't access it

Intense Storms, Insurance Crisis Force Residents of a Louisiana Community to Consider Leaving​

Extreme weather has hurt home values and helped send premiums sharply higher​

Intense Storms, Insurance Crisis Force Residents of a Louisiana Community to Consider Leaving

St. John the Baptist Parish, west of New Orleans, has taken a pounding in recent years from extreme weather, hurting home values and sending insurance premiums sharply higher.

www.wsj.com

 

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More on the drivers of insurance costs

Ian revisited: Disentangling the drivers of US hurricane losses​

Insured losses from a storm like Hurricane Ian, had it struck Florida a half-century ago, would have been far lower than they were in the current environment.
Erdem Karaca, Elisabeth Victor

Even adjusting for inflation, the September 2022 storm, one of history's most-destructive natural catastrophes, would have been half or even a third as expensive in the 1970s, data shows. At its one-year anniversary, a new Swiss Re analysis pivots off the dynamic drivers behind Hurricane Ian's costs and offers insights for the US Southeast, Gulf Coast and Northeast, regions with diverse characteristics but something critical in common: the importance of adapting our built environment to a future of volatile weather.

When Hurricane Ian took shape off Africa's west coast in mid-September 2022, it was already late in the North Atlantic tropical cyclone season. Before it was finished, however, Ian inflicted about USD 65 billion in insured losses, much of them concentrated near Fort Myers. While Ian's dimensions weren't extraordinary as hurricanes go – it made landfall at Category 4 – several factors combined to make it the third most costly hurricane ever in the US, including a Florida population that's tripled to over 22 million since 1975 and the accompanying concentration of valuable, vulnerable assets in the storm's path.

Swiss Re's Natural Catastrophe models offer the opportunity to ...

Ian revisited: Disentangling the drivers of US hurricane losses | Swiss Re

1st anniversary of Hurricane Ian, Florida: Groundbreaking Swiss Re study unpacks loss drivers, including urbanization, mitigation, inflation & population growth

www.swissre.com