Anthropogenic Global Warming ... how hot is it ?

S2 #38, #39, #40

If a despicable evil-doer were implementing a diabolical plan to acquire as much coastline as humanly possible for the most despicable reason I'd be more sympathetic.

Fact is these specific Louisiana residents probably shouldn't have been there in the first place.

Misunderstanding of holy scripture may suggest money is "the root of all evil *". Not at all clear to me how our modern society could operate successfully without money.
Money is a practical way to quantify risk. We even handicap horses and golfers.

If a despicable evil-doer were to issue a command that no habitation is permitted in these lowland locations, I'd be delighted to lead the parade for his ouster. BUT !!

To my knowledge these people aren't being told where they can or can't live.
This seems to be about money. DANDY

If Elon Musk & Jeff Bezos want to move there, magnificent. They can insure themselves.
If the most impoverished most destitute person in the nation wants to move in next door to them there, spectacular (provided he / she / it resides there uninsured).

Unless there's an insurance swindle going on here, seems to me S2 #38, #39, #40 are simply reporting that insurers are finally catching up with reality.

'bout time

* Ecclesiastes 5:10 and 1 Timothy 6:10

It is a classic if oft' repeated blunder to static model a dynamic situation. Even without global warming, and even if mean sea-level never varied by more than a millimeter, this policy tilt toward rationality might be overdue.
Sea level seems to be rising. How far how fast, not sure. We are obliged to accommodate / adapt to change, as we already have with the Emerald Ash Borer, COVID-19, and ...
 

Florida home insurance costs unlikely to fall despite reforms to reduce lawsuits, analyst says​

Ron Hurtibise, South Florida Sun Sentinel

Home insurance costs in Florida are unlikely to fall even as reforms enacted by the state Legislature last year drive down litigation rates, a national insurance analyst predicted in a newly released report.

The report by Karen Clark & Company, titled “Managing Expectations: Why Florida Homeowners Insurance Premiums Are Not Likely to Go Down,” says rising inflation rates, reinsurance costs and effects of climate change will keep insurance losses — and rates — climbing as litigation costs taper off.

Karen Clark & Company provides catastrophe risk assessments with models that cover hurricanes, earthquakes, severe convective storms, wildfires and floods in more than 50 countries. The company’s models are used by global reinsurers, insurers and investors.

Litigation has been identified as a significant cost driver in Florida and contributed to “significantly inflated” losses in the state over the past several years, the report said. For example, the percentage of litigated claims from Hurricanes Irma and Michael have been 10 times higher than those from storms that did not hit Florida, including Laura and Ida. Those higher rates made claims from Irma and Michael 30% to 50% higher than they would have been without the excess litigation, the report found.

A series of reforms enacted in 2022 by the Florida Legislature sought to preserve the state’s private insurance market by making it more costly to sue insurance companies. The reforms included eliminating the ability to assign insurance benefits to third parties, such as contractors and eliminating attorneys’ ability to obtain legal fees from insurers when settling claims for as little as $1 over insurers’ original offers.

But litigation, the report said, is the only major insurance rate factor that can be reduced by lawmakers. And while legislation reducing litigation may eventually prevent higher rate increases, the other factors “will continue to influence future home homeowner premiums, and it is unlikely these costs will go down,” the report said.

Those factors are: ...

finance.yahoo.com

Florida home insurance costs unlikely to fall despite reforms to reduce lawsuits, analyst says

Home insurance costs in Florida are unlikely to fall even as reforms enacted by the state Legislature last year drive down litigation rates, a national insurance analyst predicted in a newly released report. The report by Karen Clark & Company, titled “Managing Expectations: Why Florida...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
S2 #42
I may simply seem fatalistic to some.
Actually on this I'm rather more an economic pragmatist, leaning laissez-faire.

Apply the same formulae that produce equitable insurance $premiums with standard profit margin for the insurer elsewhere, and then let the consumer decide whether they can afford to live there or not.

What we certainly must not do is force sensible tax payers that choose safer, lower risk environments, to subsidize the fools that choose to reside where it isn't.
 

Farmers in Illinois and around the country seek more protections under new farm bill as climate change threatens livelihoods, health and crops​

Adriana Pérez, Chicago Tribune

Vast fields of corn line the roads near the village of Beecher. Over one hill, the landscape shifts, revealing plots studded with medicinal and industrial hemp plants.

First-generation farmers Rachael and Jesse Smedberg grow hemp on their 120-acre organic and regenerative farm, Tulip Tree Gardens. Five years ago, the couple decided to buy the farm near the Indiana border, and they have since been experimenting with sustainable techniques.

“We feel like this is our purpose, to restore soil together,” Rachael Smedberg said. “This is our purpose, to educate our community. And it’s our purpose to raise up our kids and teach them that we need to protect the Earth.”


After the expiration of the 2018 federal farm bill last month, those involved in the nation’s agricultural industry are pushing for the new bill to better protect crops and the people who grow them as a rapidly changing climate threatens livelihoods, human health and, consequently, the entire food system.

In their short time farming, the Smedbergs noted how so much has changed and even more is in question about the future.

Crops across Illinois were affected by unprecedented drought at the beginning of the summer, and days of bad air quality from Canadian wildfires presented an unusual problem for those who rely mostly on outdoor work.

“The month of June, we didn’t see any rainfall. And June is so critical for crop production; plants are super small, they don’t have established roots,” Rachael Smedberg said. “So the June drought was awful, not only for organic farmers, but row crop conventional farmers too — that’s soy and corn.”

Later in the summer, many faced ...

news.yahoo.com

Farmers in Illinois and around the country seek more protections under new farm bill as climate change threatens livelihoods, health and crops

Vast fields of corn line the roads near the village of Beecher. Over one hill, the landscape shifts, revealing plots studded with medicinal and industrial hemp plants. First-generation farmers Rachael and Jesse Smedberg grow hemp on their 120-acre organic and regenerative farm, Tulip Tree...
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
 
Notice this only refers to insured losses - economic losses are far higher ...

Insured catastrophe losses $93bn to end of September: Gallagher Re​

Natural catastrophe losses covered by public and private insurance or reinsurance have already reached US $93 billion by the end of September, putting 2023 on-track to be another year with over US $100 billion of insured catastrophe losses, Gallagher Re has said.

The reinsurance broker cites “record-setting weather/climate events and extreme temperatures,” which it says have elevated natural catastrophe losses around the globe.

For the period of January to September 2023, Gallagher Re estimates economic losses to have reached US $290 billion and insured losses US $93B, putting 2023 on track to become the sixth year since 2017 to exceed US $100 billion in annual insured losses.

Of those, $86 billion are from the impacts of weather and climate related catastrophe events.

CONTINUED
 
S2 #44 & #45

I've long been skeptical about insurance. How could it be anything other than a per capita $loser for the insured population? Insurance premiums must cover losses, AND the administrative costs of the insurance policies.

From vague and fading memory:
Hurricane Andrew / Allstate. The destruction was so extensive, a substantial portion of Florida, the insurer simply wasn't prepared.

Well ?!
Hurricane Andrew might have busted up a substantial portion of Florida. Do they think global warming will only affect a substantial portion of Florida? It's called "global" for a reason.

I have wondered whether natural / wild species can simply migrate their habitats, so the mean temperature remains the same, even if the habitat band is shifted toward the pole.
That might work for geese, and other animals that can migrate. For ocean coral it's apparently more complicated.

And how the miraculous migration of the Monarch Butterfly will be affected, anyone's guess. Some authorities claim it takes 5 generations of Monarch Butterflies to complete their migration cycle.

Nature will either adapt, or not.
Kansas farmers may do well with crops that thrive in Mexico. Whether we can keep productivity gains ahead of the population explosion as we adapt crops to changing conditions, TBD.
 
For those who wonder why insurance companies are worried about climate change. And why they're taking action by pulling out of some areas:

Allstate reports estimated pre-tax catastrophe losses of $317 mln for September
Allstate Corp, an insurance firm, on Thursday reported estimated catastrophe losses for the month of September of $317 million or $250 million, after tax. For the third quarter, the company posted total catastrophe pre-tax losses of $1.18 billion.

Travelers posts wide earnings miss as catastrophe losses expand
Catastrophe losses were $850 million, far larger than the $512 million from a year earlier, mainly due to "numerous severe wind and hail storms in multiple states."

The list goes on ....
 
358027943_6693271314099073_7346820403593011509_n.jpg
 
Shiftless2 said:
358027943_6693271314099073_7346820403593011509_n.jpg
S2 #49
Click to expand...

For centuries newspaper editors have prioritized the news they report.
News consumers are therefore influenced by this prioritization. Marshall McLuhan provided a shred of plausibility to the notion that the medium is the massage. Biased news sources masquerading as legitimate news sources complicate this further. There are after all "climate-change deniers".

Not sure what's in her hand is her shopping list, or her priority list. I'm guessing it's the latter, due to the content of her cart in proportion to the length of the list.
 

No Calm Before the Storm: U.S. Coastal Communities At Risk Of Becoming Uninsurable As Storm Activity Scares Insurers​

DBRS Morningstar published a commentary examining the effect of large weather systems on U.S. coastal regions and the risk of certain properties becoming uninsurable. Some of the key highlights of the commentary include:

-- The effects of climate change have elevated the impact of tropical storms by increasing ocean temperatures, and raising sea levels, a major factor that determines the intensity and devastation of tropical storms.
-- Significant development in hurricane-prone areas is contributing to greater economic and insured losses, as coastal states continue to attract new residents, a trend that could be curtailed given the rapid increase in insurance premiums and relatively high mortgage rates, making affordability an issue.
-- Insurance companies are exiting catastrophe-prone regions, leaving homeowners and businesses with limited coverage options. This may lead to a decline in property valuations in the long term if owners are unable to secure insurance.
-- Reliance on government programs, like the National Flood Insurance Program, is expected to continue growing as private sector insurers restrict coverage or exit high-risk regions.

“In what some are referring to as a real estate "climate bubble," there are concerns that dwellings located in high-risk communities may experience a decline in value in the long run if something is not done to adequately fill the coverage gap left by departing private insurers,” says Steven Jellinek, Vice President, Head of Research, North American CMBS. “The exit of insurers from catastrophe-prone states in the U.S. creates an insurance coverage gap. We anticipate that this could eventually be a trigger for declines in property valuations in the affected regions in the absence of alternative sources of insurance protection,” says Victor Adesanya, Vice President, Insurance, Global Financial Institutions Group.

www.dbrsmorningstar.com

No Calm Before the Storm: U.S. Coastal Communities At Risk Of Becoming Uninsurable As Storm Activity Scares Insurers - 2023-10-21T12:00:00.000Z | DBRS Morningstar

DBRS Morningstar published a commentary examining the effect of large weather systems on U.S. coastal regions and the risk of certain properties becoming uninsu
www.dbrsmorningstar.com www.dbrsmorningstar.com

There is a link to the actual report at the bottom of the page but you do need a free account to access it.
 
Shiftless2 said:

"U.S. Coastal Communities At Risk Of Becoming Uninsurable" #51​

Click to expand...
Excellent.

We ought not have needed cataclysmic anthropogenic climate change to catalyze this benevolent improvement. BUT !! Call it the silver lining of a very dark, very sinister grey cloud.
If they want to build / own a lavish McMansion on a coastal floodplain, there should be nothing beyond their own common sense to prevent them. AND

if they want insurance, splendid.
Government is obligated to regulate commercial insurers so they don't plunder their policy holders. But that government charter must never be used to compel commercial insurers to serve any region or area at a loss.
 

Forecasters were caught off guard by Otis’ growth. But warming means more hurricanes like it​

BY SETH BORENSTEIN

Hurricane Otis turned from mild to monster in record time, and scientists are struggling to figure out how — and why they didn’t see it coming.

Usually reliable computer models and the forecasters who use them didn’t predict Otis’ explosive intensification, creating a nightmare scenario of an unexpectedly strong storm striking at night. At least 27 people are dead and four missing in the destruction along Mexico’s Pacific coast, with devastation that extends for miles.

All this after Acapulco was told to expect a tropical storm just below hurricane strength. Just 24 hours later, Otis blasted ashore with 165 mph (266 kph) winds, the strongest landfall of any East Pacific hurricane.

In just 12 hours, Otis’ strength more than doubled from 70 mph (113 kph) winds to 160 mph (257 kph), also a record, as it neared the coast. And it got even stronger before it struck. Storms typically gain or lose a few miles per hour in 12 hours, though some outliers gain 30 to 50 mph (48 to 80 kph) in a day.

What happened with Otis was just plain nuts, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. But it coincides with a documented trend of hurricanes rapidly intensifying more often in recent decades because of warmer water connected to climate change, scientists said.

Five different hurricane experts told The Associated Press they weren’t quite sure what set Otis off and why it wasn’t predicted, especially since ....

apnews.com

Forecasters were caught off guard by Otis’ growth. But warming means more hurricanes like it

Hurricane Otis unexpectedly turned from mild to monster in record time, and scientists are struggling to figure out what happened. Usually reliable computer models and the forecasters who use them didn’t see Otis’ explosive intensification coming as it approached Mexico's Pacific coast.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
Shiftless2 said:
"The mantra is that premiums should be "adequate, not excessive, and not unfairly discriminatory"." S2 #53
Click to expand...
"Adequate"?
Meaning, revenue positive?

I'm a little skeptical about insurance. It seems to me like a financial buffer, a kind of lottery of misfortune. Everybody buys a ticket, but you only get a $payoff if your house burns down.

S2 #54
I sense there's a key detail omitted here. There's more to this story than - oh, ain't it awful! -

The explicit message is, storms are growing in both severity and unpredictability.

AND ?

Therefore what?
Sell the Hummer, buy a Prius?
Government should coordinate a more aggressive response?
Too late to rely on government, time for citizens to act on their own?

Meanwhile, oh, ain't it awful.
It's why I live on a hilltop.
 

Otis teaches a terrifying lesson in rapid hurricane intensification​


This is a scary new paradigm in the tropics. And we all need to worry.

Hurricane Otis struck very near Acapulco, Mexico, on Tuesday night as a monster 165 mile-per-hour category 5 cyclone. On Monday night, about 24-hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was predicting it would do so as 70 mile-per-hour tropical storm.

With the energy content (and destructive potential) of the wind increasing with the cube of the windspeed, that means that Otis reached Mexico with 13 times more destructive potential than what had been expected! Even when the hurricane warning was issued at 4 a.m. local time on Tuesday, the hurricane center was still forecasting just an ordinary category 1 hurricane to reach Mexico’s Pacific coast. For a region of Mexico that had never experienced anything stronger than a category 1, getting hit by a cat-5 with little to no warning has led to severe consequences.

I want to be clear that this is not an article about the skill of the National Hurricane Center. The collection of experts at their offices in Miami is the best in the hemisphere at analyzing and forecasting tropical cyclones. In recent years, I’ve seen them become less hesitant to forecast rapid intensification of hurricanes‚ as they correctly did for hurricanes Idalia and Lee in the Atlantic this year.

In the case of Otis, the hurricane center first noted in its Sunday advisories that the waters were “very warm.” While the statement was certainly correct, that characterization of the sea surface temperatures could be a candidate for the understatement of the year. Water temperatures across the world’s oceans aren’t just very warm. They’re record-hot. In the Pacific, short-term climatic variations like el Niño have a lot to do with the elevated surface temperatures. The phenomenon is causing readings 3 degrees Celsius warmer than average in the equatorial Pacific. Closer to the Mexican coast near Acapulco, the water was above 31 °C (88 °F) on the eve of Hurricane Otis. Generally, tropical storms only need the water to be 27 °C or warmer to support strengthening, so the hot pool of water near Mexico was premium fuel for Otis.

Rapid intensification for Otis was first contemplated late on Monday night based on the low-level structure of the tropical storm at the time. On Tuesday morning, the hurricane center indicated that models showed a 1-in-4 chance of Otis undergoing rapid intensification (RI), and by midday that chance was characterized as “greater than normal”.

But rapid intensification was never explicitly called for.

Otis then proceeded to go from a 50-mph, low-end tropical storm at 11 p.m. Monday to a 160-mph, category 5 hurricane 24 hours later. Just on Tuesday afternoon, Otis grew from a tropical storm into a category 3 hurricane in the span of ....

Otis teaches a terrifying lesson in rapid hurricane intensification

What’s been happening lately cannot be sugarcoated. Since the beginning of the century, 16 category 5 hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic—a rate slightly higher than one every year-and-a-half.
www.preventionweb.net www.preventionweb.net
 
Shiftless2 said:

Otis teaches a terrifying lesson in rapid hurricane intensification​

"Hurricane Otis struck very near Acapulco, Mexico, on Tuesday night as a monster 165 mile-per-hour category 5 cyclone. On Monday night, about 24-hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was predicting it would do so as 70 mile-per-hour tropical storm." #57

Otis teaches a terrifying lesson in rapid hurricane intensification

What’s been happening lately cannot be sugarcoated. Since the beginning of the century, 16 category 5 hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic—a rate slightly higher than one every year-and-a-half.
www.preventionweb.net www.preventionweb.net
Click to expand...
Two issues:
a) severity

b) accuracy of prediction

What can be done about "a" is atmospheric de-Carbonization.
"b" requires updating the computer weather models with this new information.

The purpose of this post is not to dismiss severity, but instead to remind that while this example in #57 is indeed cause for alarm, there are more severe consequences of anthropogenic global warming.
 
Adequate means that premiums have to be high enough to pay claims and cover operating expenses. If they aren't the insurance company goes bust and policy holders are SOL when it comes to getting their claims paid.
 

Extreme Outcomes—A warming climate and stronger storms, floods, and wildfires are causing insurability concerns​

By Michael G. Malloy

It’s been hard to turn on the news this year and not see prominent stories about extreme weather and climate-change issues. Intense heat blanketed much of the South for most of the summer, with heat indexes holding near or above 100° F in many states. Phoenix had the highest temperature on record for any U.S. city in July, averaging 102.7° F.[1] In the same month, torrential rains in Vermont and New York’s Hudson Valley led to widespread flooding that rivaled the damage from Hurricane Irene, which drenched the area in 2011. Extreme weather in other parts of the world—including India, Japan, and China—were part of a pattern in which scientists cited an atmosphere that’s becoming warmer and wetter.[2]

And it wasn’t just the heat, or the humidity. Much of the U.S. was blanketed this spring and early summer with smoke from Canadian wildfires drifting down over the border. Heading into the heart of hurricane season, an enormous mid-August wildfire devastated the town of Lahaina on the Hawaiian island of Maui, with a mix of man-made electrical wires and high winds from an offshore hurricane fanning the flames that killed more than 90 people[3] The cause of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century was still under debate as of .....

 
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