Putin, Ukraine, and what next?

"War does not determine who is right. War determines who is left." R #61
- thud -
R #61,
I do get the feeling Putin's style of war is obsolete.
Capitalism proliferates prosperity due to the efficiencies of division of labor, etc.
Putin's a troglodyte. And he knows he can't compete economically.
So he reverts to his personal comfort level, Cold War style. Futile.
Your point I suspect, though Crimea does seem to have rewarded Putin richly.

Nice to read you again R.
 
Associated Press

European Union pushes ahead with a plan to buy weapons for Ukraine with frozen Russian asset profits​

LORNE COOK / Tue, March 19, 2024 at 9:46 AM EDT
BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union is pressing ahead with a plan to use the profits generated from billions of euros of Russian assets frozen in Europe to help provide weapons and other funds for Ukraine, a senior official said Tuesday.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell got a green light for the plan from most of the bloc's foreign ministers this week, and he hopes that EU leaders will endorse it at a summit in Brussels starting on Thursday. The move comes as Ukraine runs dangerously low on munitions, and U.S. efforts to get new funds for weapons have stalled in Congress.
The 27-nation EU is holding around 200 billion euros ($217 billion) in Russian central bank assets, most of it frozen in Belgium, in retaliation for Moscow’s war against Ukraine. The bloc estimates that the interest on that money could provide around 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) each year.

“The Russians will not be very happy. ...” Borrell told reporters.

Follow AP’s coverage of Russia's war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine


- and -

US defence chief says Washington will not let Ukraine fail​

W.G. DUNLOP / Tue, March 19, 2024 at 7:27 AM EDT
... The Republican-led House of Representatives has been blocking $60 billion in assistance for Ukraine, and the United States has warned that a recent $300 million package would only last a few weeks.
The "United States will not let Ukraine fail", Austin said at the opening of a meeting in Germany of Ukraine's international supporters, at which he is seeking to secure further assistance for Kyiv.


note: Secretary Austin seems to be losing weight, and has recent history of secretive visit to hospital for G.I. issue (not what you may think).
How much longer will he live?
 
The Telegraph Opinion

Putin is now openly planning for war against Nato​

Con Coughlin / Thu, March 21, 2024 at 2:00 AM EDT

Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has secured his historic fifth term in office, it is patently clear that he will devote his next six-year spell at the Kremlin to pursuing his paranoid obsession of confronting the West.
Having recorded a post-Soviet era record of winning nearly 88 per cent of the votes, Putin used his victory to remind Russians that they would never be intimidated by the West.
“No matter who or how much they want to intimidate us, no matter who or how much they want to suppress us, our will, our consciousness – no one has ever succeeded in anything like this in history,” he said. “It has not worked now and will not work in the future. Never.” ...

According to Putin’s narrative, he is fighting Western attempts to diminish Russia through a relentless effort to persuade countries, such as Ukraine, that previously fell under Moscow’s sphere of influence to join Nato and the European Union.
This means the 71-year-old Putin will feel fully justified in exploiting his massive election victory to continue pursuing his agenda of trying to rebuild Russia into a global superpower, even if it runs the risk of provoking a major conflict with the West.
The Russian president certainly did not shy away from the issue when asked a question about the possibility of becoming involved in a direct confrontation with the West during his post-election press conference.
“I think everything is possible in the modern world … it is clear to everyone that this will be one step away from a full-scale Third World War.”
Putin’s remarks vindicate recent comments made by Nato leaders warning that the full extent of the Russian leader’s territorial ambitions extend far beyond the confines of Ukraine.
The US president, Joe Biden, stated back in December that Putin is planning to attack a Nato country once he has finished in Ukraine, while in January Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of Nato’s military committee, called on the alliance’s member states to be ready to fight an all-out war with Russia within the next 20 years.
Nothing Putin has said in the wake of his election success should disabuse anyone of the view that the Kremlin clearly means business in terms of escalating its confrontation with the West.
It is quite remarkable that, with Putin now openly threatening Europe’s borders, and Trump questioning Nato’s future, there are still countries that remain unwilling to fulfil their defence responsibilities. If Putin’s re-election fails to stir them from their torpor, perhaps nothing will.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-now-openly-planning-war-060000849.html


The obvious question:
can / will Putin / Russia be capable of restraining their own first use of nuclear weapons?
Putin has already threatened this, for example falsely claiming Ukraine territory Russian troops occupy is subject to Russian military protection, including nuclear weapons. Don't buy any green bananas?
 
Putin says Russia will not attack NATO, but F-16s will be shot down in Ukraine 5:53 AM GMT-5
Putin talks to military pilots in the town of Torzhok, Russia March 27, 2024. Sputnik/Sergei Karpukhin/Pool via REUTERS
Russia has no designs on any NATO country and will not attack Poland, the Baltic states or the Czech Republic but if the West supplies F-16 fighters to Ukraine then they will be shot down by Russian forces, President Vladimir Putin said late on Wednesday. https://www.reuters.com/

I'd wondered about that Vlad.
The F-16 is a capable aircraft, but has been in our inventory for a half century. It is not stealthy, & is thus vulnerable to Russia's advanced air defense systems.
Ukraine's pilots are in training for this aircraft, but aren't scheduled for combat deployment until Summer.

Reading between the lines, Putin's concerned. Why else mention it?

The decisive factor: what weapons will this capable weapons platform carry into combat.

Meanwhile separate headlines announce a 100,000 troop Russian combat initiative against Ukraine pending. Will congress get Ukraine's troops the bullets they need?
Or will Republican common cause with dictators strangle that infant in the crib?
 
Trump's already given him permission to do whatever he wants to NATO countries so, if he ends up back in the Oval Office, watch this space.
 
" if he [Trump] ends up back in the Oval Office, watch this space." S2
Watch the computer screen, instead of out the window, at the mushroom clouds blossoming across the horizon?
One of the fabulous things about Trump, he seems to shrink anthropogenic climate change down to size.
 

Donald Trump’s Reported Peace Plan In Ukraine Is Revealed. Expert Says It’s ‘Terrible’​

Ron Dicker / Mon, April 8, 2024 at 7:53 AM EDT
Donald Trump’s claim that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours apparently involves pushing the country to surrender Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia, sources familiar with the plan told The Washington Post in Sunday’s edition.
Trump has privately asserted that Russia and Ukraine “want to save face, they want a way out” and that some Ukrainians “would be OK” with belonging to Russia, a person who spoke directly with Trump told the Post.

"I will build a great, great wall on our Southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall, mark my words." Republican primary presidential candidate Donald J. Trump 15/06/16www.DonaldJTrump.com
 
"Longtime conservative commentator George Will pulled no punches as he tore into who he described as the “112 ignoble House Republicans” who voted at the weekend against sending aid to Ukraine.
Instead, they voted “to endanger civilization,” Will wrote in his latest column for The Washington Post published Wednesday.
“Hoping to enhance their political security in their mostly safe seats, and for the infantile satisfaction of populist naughtiness (insulting a mostly fictitious ‘establishment’), they voted to assure [Russian President] Vladimir Putin’s attempt to erase a European nation,” Will fumed.
The bill was passed this week after months of deadlock.


Yes by George. AND
how many heroic Ukrainian frontline defenders of Europe were murdered by the Russian onslaught while the cowardly congressional Republicans obstructed?

Note:
Speaker Johnson has no easy task in his new house leadership role.
Not only must Johnson attempt to legislate with a slim Republican majority.
Speaker Johnson must also preside in an era of highly intensified partisan antagonism, to the degree
that Speaker Johnson risks ouster by the "ignoble House Republicans" Will mentions above. For what?
For the unpardonable sin of Johnson's own skillful bipartisan leadership, thwarting Republican obstructionists on this primary U.S. national security priority.
Ironically, isn't it those same Republican obstructionists that pressured Johnson into accepting the role of speaker in the first place?
 
The Russian bear has a tiger by the tail.

Business Insider

Russia's economy is so driven by the war in Ukraine that it cannot afford to either win or lose, economist says​

Jennifer Sor / Thu, April 25, 2024 at 7:24 PM EDT

  • Russia's economy can't afford to win or lose the war in Ukraine, one economist says.
  • That's because Russia can't afford the cost of rebuilding and securing Ukraine.
  • The cost of repairing its own nation is already "massive," Renaud Foucart says.
Russia's GDP grew 5.5% year-over-year over the third quarter of 2023, according to data from the Russian government. But most of that growth is being fueled by the nation's monster military spending, Foucart said, with plans for the Kremlin to spend a record 36.6 trillion rubles, or $386 billion on defense this year.
"Military pay, ammunition, tanks, planes, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers, all contribute to the GDP figures. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main driver of Russia's economic growth" Foucart said in an op-ed for The Conversation this week.

 
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