Putin, Ukraine, and what next?

[sear]

"Will he or won't he" seems to be a prominent question.

Has Putin extracted enough gun-to-the-head concessions to return his troops to permanent station?

Is "saving face" now an issue for Putin, not wanting to appear to have "backed down"?

If the obvious war commences there, how many human corpses will be created there?

Will such war be containable even if only in short term? Or will it spiral outward into conflict involving NATO?

 

[Rampage]

"Will he or won't he" seems to be a prominent question. s #1

He did. Yesterday.

“Here's the deal: Biden's got to make the case to the American People for why Ukraine matters. But he's actually been setting this up for a long time. He's been very consistent in saying the challenge of our time is democracy vs autocracy.

That's what's happening right now. [Hours earlier President Biden made a brief televised address on Russian military incursion into Ukraine.]

This is Vladimir Putin moving against the international order, everything from self-determination to laws, decency and democracy and saying that might makes right. And that it's up to the democracies of the world ... to stand up, stand together and say no. This aggression will not stand. And we'll see if sanctions in a targeted way are enough to deter him, as long as the elites in the Kremlin, those kleptocrats feel the pain. We don't want a hot war. We're not gunna have one here. But this is an affront to democracy. And this is a test case for the trajectory of the rest of the century, make no mistake. Ukraine today. Taiwan tomorrow. So watch out.”
CNN Sr. Analyst John Avlon 22/02/22 on CBS Late Show w/ Stephen Colbert

This is a really big deal.

 

[Wolf]

He did. Yesterday.

“Here's the deal: Biden's got to make the case to the American People for why Ukraine matters. But he's actually been setting this up for a long time. He's been very consistent in saying the challenge of our time is democracy vs autocracy.

That's what's happening right now. [Hours earlier President Biden made a brief televised address on Russian military incursion into Ukraine.]

This is Vladimir Putin moving against the international order, everything from self-determination to laws, decency and democracy and saying that might makes right. And that it's up to the democracies of the world ... to stand up, stand together and say no. This aggression will not stand. And we'll see if sanctions in a targeted way are enough to deter him, as long as the elites in the Kremlin, those kleptocrats feel the pain. We don't want a hot war. We're not gunna have one here. But this is an affront to democracy. And this is a test case for the trajectory of the rest of the century, make no mistake. Ukraine today. Taiwan tomorrow. So watch out.”
CNN Sr. Analyst John Avlon 22/02/22 on CBS Late Show w/ Stephen Colbert

This is a really big deal.

 

[Wolf]

Hi, as to the central question as "what next", well some, many years ago (I grew up in the Last World War) Hitler had a very similar aim and view point as it appears Putin has. The result is now history but for those that grew up with the threat hanging over them this present situation brings back the horror.
Putin has been planning this present Horror for some years, and because he has played "softly softy catchy Monkey," approach, the West has not only ignored the threat but has in many ways "encouraged it".
Now the World faces a situation where all of Europe is under threat.
To say he (Putin) is mad, is wrong he is if the truth is known a very clever person. He has as posted waited until he has made Europe to a large extent reliant on Russian energy, he has waited until a USA President appears to be too weak to cause him any great worry, and finally another great ally namely China to take his side.
So my opinion, one of three things will happen. The first and most lightly IMHO he will "crush" any resistance in Ukraine, set a puppet government up and wait, second, he will stop now and negotiate a peace with the West, because he knows that if the West does not let him off the hook, total war is possible, and third the resistance he is meeting will persuade him that "it's not worth it". I think in my view the first is most lightly because he holds a large number of options as to the West. I hate really to say this but having lived "three score and ten plus" I have had a good free life but do feel very sad for those still growing up.
Finally I remember something that was told me many years ago about the World in general,
95% of the World populations are inept, leaderless, 1% are Saints, !% are rear-end people, 3 % are Leaders.

 

[sear]

"He did. Yesterday." R #2

There were doubters R. Surely not much doubt now.
Thanks for the Avlon quotation. "Taiwan tomorrow"? - ugh -

Greetings W #4. Welcome to cv.

"the West has not only ignored the threat but has in many ways "encouraged it"." W #4

The example that comes to mind is President Trump, seemed to admire Putin. Perhaps Trump wanted to build a hotel in Moscow. Considering the sanctions, perhaps it's lucky for Trump he failed.

"he will "crush" any resistance in Ukraine, set a puppet government up and wait" W #4

I agree that's Putin's intention. Problem for Putin is, reportedly his invasion isn't well executed, or successful. Reportedly Putin has not yet taken a major city.
Other reports filter in about his convoys stalled at roadside, out of fuel. Should have topped off before leaving home.

This AM I learned Ukraine is desperate for ammunition. Why NATO isn't shipping it to Ukraine by the train load I can't imagine.

And now Putin reportedly has his nuclear weapons on alert.
I trust the West is smart enough to not allow that to draw them into a nuclear war against Putin.
BUT !!
So far "sanctions" have been the reply Putin has received from civilization. What sanction is appropriate for starting a nuclear war?

Glad to bring you a bit of cheer this March #1, 2022.
Visit often. Post a lot. Crank up that computer! Remember, they're our servants, not our masters.

 

[Wolf]

Thanks Sear for your welcome. As for the Nuclear threat, well news today the Russian Defence Minster has stated that all Nuclear weapons should be removed from Europe. Whether that includes the UK not known, But as posted he will crush all those against him in Ukraine and then sit and wait. The sanction's imposed may well cripple the Russian people, but he has control so why should he worry. Those that have been brave enough to go on the streets with "NO WAR" signs have been arrested and if larger numbers appear well he killing innocent people in Ukraine so what.
As posted the West has gravely under estimated what he will do, now is the time too dare I say "Pray".

 

[sear]

pray (prā) ​ v. prayed, pray·ing, prays v.intr. To utter or address a prayer or prayers to a deity or an object of worship, often as an entreaty: people praying in the pews of the church; people praying for divine guidance; people praying for their loved ones. v.tr. 1. To use prayer to request (that something may happen): The congregation prayed that the drought would end soon. The child prayed to be more considerate of others. 2. To say (a prayer or group of prayers): pray the rosary. 3. To make a devout or earnest request for: I pray your forgiveness. 4. To utter or say a prayer or prayers to; address by prayer: "I pray Heaven that I never may forget the dear girl" (Charles Dickens). 5. Archaic To ask (someone) imploringly for something; beseech. Used chiefly in the phrase I pray you to introduce a polite or urgent request or question: I pray you be careful. adv. Used to make a polite or urgent request or question: Pray don't apologize. [Middle English preien, from Old French preier, from Latin precārī, from precēs, pl. of *prex, prayer; see prek- in the Appendix of Indo-European roots.]

---

prey (prā) intr.v. preyed, prey·ing, preys 1. To hunt, catch, or eat as prey: Owls prey on mice. 2. To victimize or make a profit at someone else's expense: swindlers who prey upon the weak. 3. To plunder or pillage: Vikings preying on coastal settlements. 4. To exert a baneful or injurious effect: Remorse preyed on his mind. [Middle English preie, from Old French, from Latin praeda, booty, prey; see ghend- in the Appendix of Indo-European roots.] preyer n.

---

The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language https://www.ahdictionary.com/word/search.html?q=prey





Perhaps both? PS pending

 

[sear]

You're right to draw the distinction between sanctions against the Russian economy, and harm directly to Putin, by some reports Putin one of the wealthiest humans on Earth.
It's not practical / possible for a nation to outspend its own GDP on military. The Soviets tried it, and spent themselves out of existence.

If Putin is willing to put the good People of Ukraine through this disastrous ordeal, how delicate can we expect Putin to be with Russians?

And if I may twist the knife a tad:
there've been recent questions in the U.S. press about Putin's sanity.
Some mistake this to mean irrational. Example:

"I've been to jail, and I've been to a mental institution. ...
I would much rather be in jail. ...
In jail you can at least have a conversation. Jail people think logically.
In mental institutions they don't think logically. ...
In jail people think:
- I needed money, so I stole a car. -
In a mental institution people think:
- I needed money, so I jerked off at the mall. - " Artie Lange

Putin may be rational enough to know how to invade & occupy Ukraine (even if unsuccessful in fully conquering).
Problem is, Putin is unmistakably unhinged enough to attempt it.

I've seen soap-opera fans apparently suffering withdrawal while awaiting the next broadcast of their favorite series.
I recognize similar motive in my own vigilance, awaiting latest word from the battle front. It goes beyond simple morbid curiosity.

Can this be the last gasp of autocracy, introducing a new era of global peace & prosperity? Or instead is it merely a reminder that megalomania will never be gone or forgotten?

 

[Wolf]

To plunder or pillage: Vikings preying on coastal settlements. Sear.
I used the word "Pray" as a term of "Hope". Hope that those near Putin or under his control will (Dare I say) "see the light".
By that I mean it's possible a peaceful solution will be found in that the Russian people will "speak",
As for your quote Sear, well I had my DNA scanned. All my Kin and myself were born in or around London.
However my DNA tells me I have a large part made up Scottish-Walsh German and Swedish.
This might mean I have Viking Blood in my present form. Which could mean I am more European. Which further means although age might be against fighting for the freedom to choose I will if needs be "fight". Odin speaks

 

[sear]

"I used the word "Pray" as a term of "Hope"." W #9

For as many years as I've cyber-known you Mr. W I don't recall you being a pessimist.

I hope you'll pardon my word-play with the dictionary homonyms.
It was my oblique suggestion that:
imagine how many Ukrainian lives would be saved if Putin was to by whatever means suddenly find himself guest of honor at a funeral.

Not sure how much U.S. history has to do with it, but it seems the assassination of JFK put off the appeal of thwarting a madman like Putin via 50 calibre long range (500 meter) "diplomacy". The reason:
if the U.S. is party to assassination of world leaders, the U.S. may then be subject to its own leaders (president, supreme court justice, member of congress, State governor, etc) being treated that way by foreign actors as well.

And so the carnage continues.

 

[titan]

"Odin speaks" W #9

There's more than one way to understand this.

Of course, the obvious:
- supernatural deity incarnate, wielding power far beyond human capacity.

But if we relax the definition to closer to metaphor level, it's no longer a machination of the supernatural alone.

O·din (ōdĭn) Share: n. Norse Mythology The god of wisdom, war, art, culture, and the dead, and the supreme deity and creator of the cosmos and humans. The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition copyright ©2022 by HarperCollins Publishers. All rights reserved.

---

If we had to choose a divine ally, we could do worse than Odin.

note:
Interesting that you recognize this kinship in your own background W #9, and yet Putin who argues that Ukraine are kindred Russians expresses his appreciation for this fraternity by slaughter.
I like your way better than Putin's.

 

[Wolf]

For as many years as I've cyber-known you Mr. W I don't recall you being a pessimist. Sear
Yes we have had a relationship over some years, but as for my being a "Pessimist" may be as age is beginning to effect, then it's possible I am now becoming aware that if there is an "here after" one must look back, and possibly reflect as to what as gone before. One shortened theme does echo in my mind,
"when the looms grow silent, and the shuttles cease to fly,
then the being unrolls the canvas and gives the reason why .
The dark threads are as needful in the weavers skilful hands,
as the threads of gold and silver in the Patten that is planned".
Something that has effected my reasoning and sometimes actions.
interesting that you recognize this kinship in your own background W #9, titan
I not certain it's recognising a sort of Kinship "titan" more a reflection on how I have lived and have fought the battles I have during my "aging " life, and seeing now during that refection of how they have effected my thinking.
But I am mindful of what has happened in the history of the UK.
Back at the end of the 1930's we were on the edge of an invasion, we have a leader who had tried to appease the then Dictator who was threating us. Our leader at the time (on reflection) does remind me of your at present President in some ways. However a new UK leader immerged and took command. That with the the joining and great help of the U.S.A. , won the day and for sometime, the peace. So on looking at effects and events, it's possible that peace loving people will try to appease those with conquest in their hearts only time will tell.
My own view of Putin is simply he has over the 20 odd years he has "held the power" in his Russia, he has had this thought in his mind of "Power" above all that gone before. Whether that has given him a sense of supreme power, and because those he has chosen to "by his side" has given him a view of total leadership, as yet to be seen. My post as to "whether" the people of Russia will turn against him, remains to be seen, I hope so or dare I say "Pray for". I will add I am no believer in any Man made Religions, but do believe in a "Being" that made the Universe.

 

[titan]

Chamberlain to Churchill, quite a leap in style, & Statecraft.
I know little about Chamberlain. I gather Chamberlain was a good man, but lacked the Machiavellian ruthlessness necessary to subdue a megalomaniac like Hitler. Reminds me of our President Carter, a very good man but not a very good president.

"he has had this thought in his mind of "Power" above all" W #12

This may over-estimate Putin.
I prefer an explanation less flattering to Putin.
Remember how the "G7" became the "G7 + 1"?
Putin's / Russia's economy simply didn't measure up to G7 standards. BUT !! Perhaps more for reason of unadorned vanity economic merit the G7 allowed Putin to audit a G7 meeting. And look at the advantageous payoff the West got in return. NOT !

note:
Between Putin's initial invasion of Ukraine, and last night's President Biden State of the Union speech I might have thought Biden the mentally feeble one, and Putin to be the keen if diabolical operator.
Reports from the battlefield indicate Putin has not yet taken a major Ukrainian city, and that his long-planned invasion is conspicuously ill-conceived politically, economically, and militarily.
In stark contrast I thought Biden's SOU was quite well delivered for a man Biden's age.

My most sincere best wishes to the good People of Ukraine. And to Putin, a large malodorous cloud of concentrated methane, straight from the elephant.

 

[sear]

Putin, Ukraine, and what next?​

Putin is a madman. The deliberate mass slaughter of innocent civilians is as unspeakable a crime as I can imagine.

Saint Thomas More taught through his own self-sacrifice he believed it is during adversity that we must cling most tenaciously to our highest standards.
And Hank8 set More's head on a pike on the gate. Sucks really hard for that guy!

A good civics teacher understands that tax payers pay tax in exchange for governance.
So U.S. tax money should be spent to defend U.S. tax payers. Not Ukrainians.

"American people are friends of Liberty everywhere, but custodians only of their own." John Adams

If there was nothing that could be done, it'd be a non-issue. But
It is a new millennium.
And NATO has the capacity to flick Putin in the forehead, for good if they like.

If NATO did put a stop to the carnage by destroying Russian forces in Ukraine until the last Russian military was killed or captured, what would Putin do?
Putin has already put his nuclear forces on alert. That's considered common knowledge, mainstream media reported it.
Is the U.S. / NATO / West already under veiled Russian threat of nuclear weapons?

What are the options?
- Witness the slaughter until former Ukraine becomes an enormous Russian ghetto.
- Launch an all-out military attack on Russian forces in Ukraine.
- There are of course other possibilities. NATO alone might be able to save a million human lives, by preventing Russia from exterminating them. By refusing to stop Russia and save Ukrainians at what point are we obliged to demand a candid answer from ourselves?
> Who is the greater barbarian? Putin, unmistakably a madman, and thus in some sense not responsible for his crime? Or NATO member nations for refusing to demand a stop to this? <

This is a very, very big deal. We have the power to STOP it.

"My most sincere best wishes to the good People of Ukraine. And to Putin, a large malodorous cloud of concentrated methane, straight from the elephant." T #13

Thanks for mental imagery T-meister.

 

[Wolf]

"American people are friends of Liberty everywhere, but custodians only of their own." John Adams :-Sear
An important statement, one that should be the watch word of all.
As for what Putin will do next after he has crushed Ukraine, well that depends on how long it takes him to "finish the job" and how deep the growing sanctions "bite".
We should remember that :-
"you can fool some of the people all the time, you can fool all the people some of the time, but can't fool all the people all the time".
I can't remember when I have seen people come on to Russian streets and protest, even though they know there is a good chance (as is happening) they will be arrested. So could it be there is the beginning of a "voice" in Russia which has tasted freedom.
Also again if sanctions start to effect the "ordinary people" and because many of the people who are daring to voice their views are of a generation which has never seen or felt the effect of total War and have enjoyed what we in the West take for granted a moment starts.
Our, Present rulers in the West, are in some confusion as to what to do, but as always some one will "arise" and lead.
Mean time we need to become more focused, and not as happened when the U.S.A. President at an important meeting while addressing the meeting confused Ukraine with Iran.
As for as posted after Ukraine has been over whelmed, the other past states who were once part the then U.S.S.R. should start to look at their own vulnerability. I note India has not "climbed aboard the Waggon of the West" in criticising Russia.

 

[Wolf]

An important update.
Today I read that Putin has "decried" he will take the whole of Ukraine and further will place his Russia under Marshall Law. So it looks like it's goodbye any freedom in the Russia.
Plus the a Germanys Minister has warmed of social unrest if Germany ends it's reliance on Russian Gas.
This Man Putin has certainly done his homework, if I lived in any of the once Soviet countries I would taking up Russian Language courses.

 

[sear]

"American people are friends of Liberty everywhere, but custodians only of their own." John Adams :-Sear
An important statement, one that should be the watch word of all.

I'm not a historian. But I sense NATO has a rare if not historically unique situation here W.

In so many battles / wars, seems to me those not directly party to the conflict were inert observers, able at best to nibble around the edges, for example the way U.S. did with Lend / Lease during WWII.

BUT !!

NATO may be the single most powerful military entity ever known to humanity in all history.
And NATO was designed as an antidote to Russian military aggression / expansionism.

I'm not asserting without reservation that it is NATO's obligation to inject itself today.
But every day NATO delays, the more innocent Ukrainians will be slaughtered. Will we then be able to honestly say that their blood is not on our hands?

HYPOTHETICAL:
Suppose NATO proposes a trade to Ukraine:
a) We (NATO) will remove, destroy, send packing back to Russia the invading forces in Ukraine. In exchange for this life-saving service NATO asks from Ukraine in return:
b) ?

What has Ukraine to offer that would make NATO's Ukraine rescue option attractive enough to execute on it successfully, in a manner timely enough so that Ukraine hasn't suffered $Hundreds of $Billions in damage from Russia?

"As for what Putin will do next after he has crushed Ukraine, well that depends on how long it takes him to "finish the job" and how deep the growing sanctions "bite"." W

It seems rather than pressuring Putin directly, the West is trying to make life more difficult for Russia's oligarchs, upon whom Putin is dependent for economic guidance. Vlad Putin may be all kinds of capable of many things. BUT one thing Putin does not get is economics. It's a black box mystery to him.

Problem is by the time such strategy works, Ukraine may be rubble.

"you can fool some of the people all the time, you can fool all the people some of the time, but can't fool all the people all the time".
I can't remember when I have seen people come on to Russian streets and protest, even though they know there is a good chance (as is happening) they will be arrested.
W #15

The twist I heard was that Putin is having Russian protestors arrested. Then Putin sends them to the Russian war zone in Ukraine, essentially a death sentence.

"So could it be there is the beginning of a "voice" in Russia which has tasted freedom." W

Deciphering a coherent picture from there isn't easy.
For one thing, the "news" filtering in to the Russian populace is pro-Russian propaganda, portraying Ukraine as a danger justifying Putin's aggression there. Not easy to draw sensible conclusions when the "information" it's based on are lies.

"Our, Present rulers in the West, are in some confusion as to what to do, but as always some one will "arise" and lead." W

Many used to rely on the United States for that. But particularly during the Trump administration seems to me Germany's Chancellor Merkel filled that role.
I consider her an unusually wise and effective leader. Not sure the new guy is up to it.

"I note India has not "climbed aboard the Waggon of the West" in criticising Russia." W

An energy issue?

I doubt the world's largest democracy secretly favors Putin over civilization. So I deduce it's something else. Probably essential trade.

 

[Rampage]

The news has been grim for a week. But dodging the nuclear power-plant bullet so narrowly today: the Russians fired at, and reportedly started a fire at what is reportedly the largest nuclear power installation in Europe. Nearby Chernobyl widely regarded as the worst nuclear accident in history. The power-plant in danger today?
It's been called "6 Chernobyls".

Can't just pull the plug on a nuclear reactor of that size, and then just walk out of the control room. The invading Russians don't know how to operate the equipment. So it seems the Ukrainian nuclear workers that know how to prevent a reactor melt-down etc are doing so at Russian gunpoint.
So like sear said in #17, is there no limit to what must be tolerated? If Putin causes the worst nuclear disaster in all human history, is Putin to pay no price for it?

Should Putin be told: if you cause as much trouble as a nuclear power-plant creating a dead zone, Moscow will be bombed.

Or just calm reassurance to Putin: anything goes buddy. Nobody's going to stop you.

 

[Wolf]

One quote I did quite excited about this morning, from one U.S.A Ministry Guy,:-" Ukraine could win this War". Whether that is just Hope or the Guy knows something we are not party too, remains to be seen.
But the facts are that Russia is having growing problems in "Conquering" Ukraine, and the resistance his army is encountering could be his un-doing.
But I still believe that Putin is not by definition, Mad. He has IMHO a sense of purpose as to bring back in his view a Russia with all it's power and Grandeur of the once U.S.S.R.
But as we have seen and History shows, Hitler had similar views as to what Germany was like before 1918, when it was crushed and it's people made to suffer. The Human mind is a very complexed organ, and as Putin was a KGB Officer and had no doubt been indoctrinated to believe in the USSR and it's power, this could be why his mind is "disturbed". We should realise that when he took the Crimea, it was a "walk over" so he no doubt and was assured by his "Yes Men" the same would happen with Ukraine.
Now the problem is "how to escape with Honour". Hitler when he realised all was lost, sent himself to here after, I don't think Putin will follow the example, sadly.

 

[sear]

"One quote I did quite excited about this morning, from one U.S.A Ministry Guy,:-" Ukraine could win this War". Whether that is just Hope or the Guy knows something we are not party too, remains to be seen." W #19

Reports & estimates vary. Russia's greatest gains are reportedly to the Southeast.

One question I'm left with: 6 months from now, as Russia tries to occupy Ukraine, what level of attrition will the Ukrainian insurgency impose on Russia?

"But I still believe that Putin is not by definition, Mad. He has IMHO a sense of purpose as to bring back in his view a Russia with all it's power and Grandeur of the once U.S.S.R." W #19

That might get a little tricky.
Certainly if international conquest is the objective, military invasion is a history records some successes with that method.
For me what exposes Putin as a madman is the methods, the tactics Russian troops are using, including war crimes.