Long View:
Putin seems to have believed, and openly claimed Putin's / Russia's military adventure in Ukraine would be fast & easy. Putin might have had some basis for this belief, his rapid conquest of Crimea for example.
Ukraine didn't work out that way. A year & a half later, Russia is bogged down.
The punchline for this: Russia's military was presented as the 2nd strongest military in the world. Turns out it's the 2nd strongest military in Ukraine.
"In the critical hours of Prigozhin’s insurrection, Putin’s Russia turned out to be what its critics had long claimed: a mafia state lacking robust institutions – but, unfortunately, one with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal."
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2023/07/4/7409775/
Putin won't live forever, and he may not even be able to cling to power much longer.
So what's to become of Russia after its War in Ukraine is over?
"The Berlin Wall" fell during the GHWB (the elder President Bush) administration. GHWB was not only president. He'd also been a master spy, head of the CIA.
The world has suffered a gargantuan blow as a result of the following GHWB administration failure. The U.S. president did
not send Gorbachev a formal head of State to head of State letter:
Dear President Gorbachev:
For decades the U.S. and U.S.S.R. were locked in a mutually depleting Cold War that threatened our mutual annihilation.
That War is now over, and some might expect the victor to harvest the spoils.
But the United States of America maintains a proud tradition of welcoming our former adversaries as friends, as we have with both Germany and Japan after WWII.
Not a mere rhetorical welcome without substance or concern, but genuine, substantial peace and prosperity.
The Soviet economy was a zero sum game. For government to have more, the good people of the Soviet Union had less, and for the Kremlin to keep pace with the Pentagon, the good people of the Soviet Union were forced to have a great deal less.
As president of the United States I offer to you, to Russia and the good people that populate her, the same determined hand of friendship that it is our tradition to extend.
It will be a very long road Mr. Gorbachev, measured not in miles, but decades. Many challenges and obstacles await us in our mutual effort to welcome Russia to a far more prosperous, more comfortable, more secure future.
"A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step." There is no benefit to delay. The sooner we begin to rebuild, to modernize, to benefit all of Russia the better.
I have appointed a liaison team to establish communications with their counterpart working group in Russia.
This combined team can begin by establishing the objectives Russia chooses to achieve, prioritized to your preference, to be executed only upon your approval.
If any time you sense a snag in their progress, or if you simply wish to touch base to solidify mutually beneficial diplomatic relations, please feel free to contact me directly.
Both our nations have paid a price. But the wisdom of your world-class leadership is surely equal to this task that lays before us. Our liaison team has communication keys to share with yours, for their consultation with Germany, Japan, and other Western nations eager to offer constructive suggestions on how to optimize Russia's post War transition.
All best to you and and Raisa.
Your partner in Russia's prosperity, with kindest regards
United States President George Herbert Walker Bush
202-456-1111
Apparently such letter was never sent.
The Cold War ended.
The former Soviet Union was allowed by the West to languish.
All that has lead to where we are today.
So what ?
Russia reportedly has the largest nuclear weapons arsenal on Earth.
Were it not so the prosperous West might simply prepare the gradual process of preparing Russia's economy and People to enter the E.U., to join in the global prosperity. BUT !!
Russian nukes are a problem.
What's the solution?
After the dust has settled in Russia's Ukraine War, is there a rational reason the West including the E.U. should not make an offer reflecting the spirit of the letter example above,
with one substantial condition ?
That the West extend to Russia a transition to Western prosperity akin to that provided to former East Germany after reunification, ON THE CONDITION that Russia and her satellites including Belarus surrender their WMD including 100% of their nuclear arsenal.
Is there a rational reason this offer should not be extended?
