News Related To The Ukraine / Russian War

There's dispute about the idea that a military ... travels on its belly. Some credit Napoleon, others, Frederick the Great.
In any case it's an acknowledgement of the military importance of supply lines, and logistical support.

In the new millennium military power is fueled with money. And Vlad Putin's shenanigans in Ukraine (along with associated sanctions) are bleeding the Russian economy dry.

Phil Rosen / Sun, July 16, 2023 at 4:15 PM EDT
  • Russia's economy has deteriorated since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
  • Its current-account balance has crashed, the ruble is weakening, and it's status as an energy superpower has crumbled.
  • At the same time, Russia's domestic consumption and production are low.
Russia's economy is a shadow of what it was 16 months ago.
Before Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and prior to the onset of historic sanctions, Moscow commanded the world's 11th largest economy and played a key role as a reliable, wide-reaching energy exporter.

Now however, from a weakening currency to tepid trade, all signs point to a sharp deterioration with no end in sight. ...
Russia has permanently forfeited European market share and is down to just two primary buyers of its oil, India and China.

Brain drain and emigration​

Millions of Russians have emigrated since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to Yale data, with Uzbekistan alone taking in more than 400,000 fleeing citizens.
The flight of capital and talent out of Russia is illustrated in the surge of money transfers to neighboring countries that aren't normally seen as financial hubs, according to Yale, such as Armenia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan.
"While there is no concrete measure of how much capital flight has taken place, proxy measures, such as the explosion of non-resident deposits in UAE bank accounts, suggests that Russians of means are taking their productive capital out of Russia at a dramatic clip," Yale researcher Jeffrey Sonnenfeld said.


Will Putin salvage some semblance here?
How many more will die before this meat-grinder is shut down?
 
The Telegraph
Opinion

Nato may be about to sell Ukraine short – and make itself irrelevant​

Colonel Richard Kemp / Sat, August 19, 2023 at 1:03 PM EDT
NATO Secretary General Stolenberg

Nato appears to have abandoned hopes of a Ukrainian victory. Speaking in Norway, secretary general Jens Stoltenberg’s chief of staff, Stian Jenssen, said that a peace deal might involve Kyiv ceding territory to Russia in return for Nato membership.
His comments sparked fury in Ukraine, and rightly so. While Jenssen later apologised for the way he had expressed his views, he did not retract them. Stoltenberg’s subsequent insistence that peace talks will happen on Kyiv’s terms will not have quashed suspicions that Jenssen has revealed how the West really sees the war.

 
The New Voice of Ukraine

‘$500 — Ukrainian drone, $3 million — Russia’s most advanced tank, a skilled operator’s hands — priceless’​

The New Voice of Ukraine / Sat, September 2, 2023 at 10:45 AM EDT

Ukraine showed why Russia is hesitant to deploy its most advanced military hardware in Ukraine in a viral video posted on Facebook by the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Hetman Bohdan Khmelnytskyi on Sep. 1.
The video shows two Ukrainian FPV kamikaze drones taking turns striking a Russian T-90 Proryv tank — Russia’s most advanced — and reducing it to a pile of scrap metal.

 
 
The burdens of national leadership are not trivial.
But in time of War, invasion by a global superpower Zelenskyy's burden must be only more abrasive.

70% of Ukrainians believe Zelenskyy should stay in office until end of martial law​

Roman Petrenko — Monday, 17 June 2024, 16:39
70% of the respondents in a recent poll agreed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy should remain president of Ukraine until the end of martial law.
Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)
Details: 22% of respondents disagreed with this statement.
The percentage of respondents who agreed varies between 65% and 74% depending on the oblast where they live, meaning that the vast majority of Ukrainians do not question the president’s legitimacy, sociologists say.
More than half of Ukrainians approve of the leader's performance in office.
The majority of Ukrainians (58%) also agree that the Ukrainian government should not compromise in negotiations.


Ukrainians can choose any leader they like (sadly, so can the U.S.).
Presuming Zelenskyy means well, is there no thought to giving this heavily burdened head of State a vacation?
 
Ukraine is desperate. Metaphorically it's scraping the bottom of the barrel, transferring inmates, ex-cons into mortal combat against Russia.
Why?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy President of Ukraine since 2019, the entire duration of the Russian invasion.
U.S. military combat troops at war are rotated in and out, a "tour of duty". The U.S. preferred to keep it short.
But during Bush / Cheney tour duration was extended, because the U.S. military was over-extended. Two Wars.
One in Afghanistan.
Another in Iraq.
Zelenskyy's current adversity is likely to be worse. Does Ukraine have combat troop rotations at all?

Ukrainian ex-convicts seek second chance in army service​

A Ukrainian prisoner who signed up under a new law granting them amnesty in exchange for army service during training near a front line in Kharkiv region
By Volodymyr Pavlov
KHARKIV REGION, Ukraine (Reuters) - Former car thief Bohdan Filonenko had a simple response for fellow inmates who criticized his decision to join Ukraine's military.
"I'm not going off to die," he recalled telling them. "I'm going to serve and change my life."

Filonenko, 32, is among thousands of Ukrainian prisoners who signed up under a new law granting them amnesty in exchange for army service.
Kyiv has struggled to recruit enough troops to fend off Moscow's full-scale invasion, which is grinding into its 30th month and showing no signs of ending.
In addition to overhauling the draft, authorities have also courted convicts like Filonenko, who is now training with the 57th Motorised Infantry Brigade, to boost their ranks with motivated men.
Filonenko and others interviewed by Reuters while training in the northeastern Kharkiv region said they leapt at the opportunity to fight.
Pavlo, who only gave his first name, had one year left to serve for assault but signed up the day after the new law was enacted in May.
"Why should some strangers come to my country and destroy my land?" asked the 46-year-old steely-eyed squad leader, who has already been wounded in the leg after a Russian drone dropped an explosive near him.
Under the new rules, prisoners will have their remaining sentences cleared if they agree to serve without leave until the end of the war. They would then be granted parole.
More than 3,000 ex-prisoners have joined various military units, the General Prosecutor's Office said earlier this month. Justice Minister Denys Maliuska said in May that up to 20,000 could be eligible.
Those convicted of certain offences, like the murder of two or more people and sexual crimes, are barred from serving.
Filonenko said he felt motivated after hearing of massacred civilians following Russia's occupation of two Kyiv suburbs early in the war.
Clutching his automatic rifle inside a hollowed-out building on the training ground, the repeat offender beamed while recalling his mother's pride. He said she did not believe he would be able to leave prison to join up.
"When I finally called and sent her a couple photos, then it became lighter on mum's soul."
(Reporting by Volodymyr Pavlov; Writing by Dan Peleschuk; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)

 
Ukraine is desperate.
Hasn't Putin already been doing this since the victory in a few days he was expecting never materialized?

Even if so I'm not sure that's a reliable measure of desperation between Moscow & Kyiv.
 
The arrival of the jets is a milestone for Ukraine after many months of waiting, though it remains unclear how many are available and how much of an impact they will have in the fight against Russia.
Ukraine finally deploying US-made F-16 fighter jets, https://www.reuters.com/


Better watch out Ukraine.
a) F-16's are NOT stealthy, thus vulnerable to radar-equipped weapons systems.
b) Much has been made of them, and thus an artificially high value target for Russian morale.
 
Business Insider

US senator calls on retired F-16 pilots to come 'fight for freedom' in Ukraine after meeting with Zelenskyy​

Jake Epstein / Tue, August 13, 2024 at 1:17 PM EDT
US senator calls on retired F-16 pilots to come 'fight for freedom' in Ukraine after meeting with Zelenskyy

  • Ukraine is finally operating F-16s, but President Zelenskyy said Kyiv lacks trained pilots.
  • With this in mind, a US lawmaker is urging retired F-16 pilots from the West to go to Ukraine.
  • "They will hire you here," Sen. Lindsey Graham said during a visit to Ukraine this week.
A US senator who recently visited Ukraine has issued a call for retired F-16 pilots to join Kyiv's air force, where they can fly the American-made aircraft in a "fight for freedom" against Russia.
Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal met on Monday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who told the lawmakers that he wants to establish a program to enlist retired F-16 pilots from NATO countries to help strengthen his country's air force.
"We support this effort," the senators said in a joint statement on their trip published on Monday. "Ukraine is already fielding units of freedom fighters on the ground, and this volunteer force should be replicated in the air."
After a long wait, Ukraine finally received its first F-16s a few weeks ago. Zelenskyy unveiled the fighter jets at a public event at the start of August, calling the much-celebrated arrival of the aircraft a "new phase of development" for Kyiv's air force.

 
I've puzzled over why Ukraine hasn't inflicted a penalty on Russia by counter-attacking Russia, setting the Kremlin aflame for example.

Turns out what exceedingly few reports there are of it indicate many of the weapons Ukraine has been provided from the West were supplied on condition that they would NOT be used to counter-attack in Russia.
That seems for example to be a condition of Ukraine receiving the F-16 fighter jets it's been pleading for. s #16
At long last s #16 the Ukrainian counter-attack has begun. Attrition has taken a severe toll on both sides.
The Western friendly half of that story, Russia doesn't have enough reserve military to defend its own formerly sovereign territory.
The Western unfriendly half, Ukraine has similar manpower shortfall, thus the Lindsay Graham post above.
 
Two headlines, one on the F-16 crash, Ukraine's first, and Russian economy:

WTRF Wheeling

Ukraine says US experts have joined investigation into crash of donated F-16

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — U.S. experts have joined a Ukrainian investigation into why an F-16 warplane that Ukraine received from its Western partners crashed earlier this week during a Russian ...
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrFNvdx7NFmHQQA9NZXNyoA;_ylu=Y29sbwNiZjEEcG9zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Nj/RV=2/RE=1726243186/RO=10/RU=https://www.wtrf.com/news/international/ap-international/ap-ukraine-says-us-experts-are-helping-figure-out-why-a-ukrainian-f-16-crashed-in-the-war-with-russia//RK=2/RS=rslSD87OYzZFoHaVHpP5.Z2sGgo-

and some insight on the Russian war economy despite Western economic sanctions to punish Russia / Putin for the invasion of Ukraine:

Business· Reuters

Russian economy shows solid growth despite Ukraine war sanctions

The Russian economy has shown solid growth in many sectors while unemployment remains at a record low, new data showed on Wednesday, prompting officials to hint at a brighter outlook for the year despite Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Driven by military production, industrial output rose by 3.3% in July compared with a 2.7% increase the previous month, and by 4.8% since the start of the year, compared with 3.1% growth in the same period in 2023.
 
Sounds like Putin has gone from "we will conquer Ukraine" to "we will protect Moscow". S2 #33
Mentally Putin is a knuckle-dragger. His understanding of economics is rudimentary at best, and the only way Putin knows how to compete is Cold War style.

Vlad ! It's a new millennium. Get an idea !

iirc early in the conflict Putin dipped his own toe in the nuclear arena. iirc Putin's justification was:
- Russia's captured Ukrainian territory is Russia's to defend, and Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons to defend its territory.
Secretary of State Blinken & Secretary of Defense Austin seem to have smacked Putin down on that well enough.
I suspect / imagine that's why the U.S. & West wanted to keep Ukraine / Zelenskyy out of Russia for so long, BUT
they may have delayed too long.
Ukraine's front-line troops must surely by now be war-weary. Do they ever get R-&-R ?

And if Zelenskyy's terms for peace is Russia returning Ukraine's territory, including Crimea, Ukraine may have to gnaw off a whole lot more Russia to bargain with.
Given the depleted resources available, that may take years, if it ever happens at all.
 
Sounds like Putin has gone from "we will conquer Ukraine" to "we will protect Moscow". #33
Ukraine targets Moscow in biggest drone attack yet
By Reuters / September 10, 20248:17 AM GMT-5
  • Ukraine attacks Russia with 144 drones
  • At least 20 drones downed around Moscow
  • Multi-storey residential buildings near Moscow on fire
  • Flights were suspended at Moscow's key airports
  • Russia attacks Ukraine with 46 drones
MOSCOW, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Ukraine targeted the Russian capital on Tuesday in its biggest drone attack so far, killing at least one and wrecking dozens of homes in the Moscow region and forcing around 50 flights to be diverted from airports around Moscow.
Russia, the world's biggest nuclear power, said it had destroyed at least 20 Ukrainian attack drones as they swarmed over the Moscow region, which has a population of more than 21 million, and 124 more over eight other regions.

At least one person was killed near Moscow, Russian authorities said. Three of Moscow's four airports were closed for more than six hours and almost 50 flights were diverted.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the drone attack was another reminder of the real nature of Ukraine's political leadership, which he said was made up of Russia's enemies.
"There is no way that night time strikes on residential neighbourhoods can be associated with military action," said Peskov.

 
"end the war ..." President Biden
That's fine Joe.
Your own military commanders have until Ukraine counter-attacked Russia, resignedly referred to this war as a stalemate.
Ukraine understands Putin is under less pressure to agree to reasonable terms when the war costs Putin / Russia little more than Russian soldiers.

My guess is the U.S. / NATO / West is providing Ukraine with barely enough matériel to minimize the risk of Putin escalating to nuclear war.

Well ?!

What are you waiting for "Western civilization"?
“If you are not a part of the solution, you are a part of the problem.” Eldridge Cleaver
Smacking Russia down hard enough so that Ukraine's sovereignty is preserved is acceptable, but not optimal.

If we're going to go to the trouble to smack Russia down, shouldn't we do so severely enough to discourage future Russian military adventurism?

How many more humans shall we allow to expire here? Why is the Kremlin still standing?
 
Reuters

Putin ally warns West of nuclear war over Ukraine​

Updated Thu, September 19, 2024 at 12:23 PM EDT

A satellite image shows ammunition bunkers on fire after the explosion, in Toropets
MOSCOW (Reuters) -A close ally of President Vladimir Putin warned Western governments on Thursday that a nuclear war would ensue if they gave the green light for Ukraine to use long-range Western weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia.
Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the lower house of parliament and a member of Putin's Security Council, was responding to a vote in the European Parliament urging EU countries to give such approval to Kyiv.
"What the European Parliament is calling for leads to a world war using nuclear weapons," Volodin wrote on Telegram.

His message was entitled "For those who didn't get it the first time" - an apparent reference to a warning by Putin last week that the West would be directly fighting Russia if it let Ukraine fire the long-range missiles onto Russian territory.
The Ukraine war has triggered the biggest confrontation between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, which is considered to be the time when the two Cold War superpowers came closest to intentional nuclear war.
The outgoing head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, told The Times this week that the Kremlin leader had declared "many red lines" before but not escalated conflict with the West when they were crossed. Putin's spokesman said his comment was dangerous and provocative.
 

Putin ally warns West of nuclear war over Ukraine #38

Possibly related, as reason Russia's military command may be getting increasingly desperate, enough to again threaten nuclear escalation. 70K dead, severe:

Volunteers dying as Russia’s war dead tops 70,000​

Olga Ivshina / BBC Russian
More than 70,000 people fighting in Russia’s military have now died in Ukraine, according to data analysed by the BBC.
And for the first time, volunteers - civilians who joined the armed forces after the start of the war - now make up the highest number of people killed on the battlefield since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022.
Every day, the names of those killed in Ukraine, their obituaries and photographs from their funerals are published across Russia in the media and on social networks.
 
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