Election 2024

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Remember, it's only gerrymandering if the other guy is doing it.

a) Since there's more than one congressional district, there must be borders between them.
b) In principle, sincerely well-meaning citizens may site a congressional district's borders based upon common interests that fall along demographic rather than geographic lines, thus our non-orthogonal congressional district maps. Example, voters residing along the shores of a confluence of two rivers have riverfront interests in common. BUT that can result in a congressional district that looks more like a capital T than a square.

In principle I'm not opposed to unifying a voting district by common interest. THE PROBLEM IS:
the evil-doers abuse this authority for partisan advantage, to the detriment of the voting tax payers the re-districtors betray.

Thus, as stated in post #41 so far it's a socio-political problem. What I'm suggesting is to address the socio-political adversity by excluding the socio-political.
One way to do that is to use simple geometry, the ~90 degree angle.

If not that, what?

Remember, it's only gerrymandering if the other guy is doing it.

If the district looks like a salamander on the map, for the purpose of disenfranchising an already disempowered minority, that's bad. BUT !
If the district looks like exactly the same salamander, but for purpose of more effectively providing governance to district residents?

 

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Full story here

Gov. Greg Abbott vetoes bill that would give people with disabilities new option to vote by mail

The bipartisan legislation was long sought by advocates for disabled voters, including some of the governor’s own allies.

www.texastribune.org

 

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S2 #42
I didn't see it disclosed in "Full story", but iirc Gov. Abbott is wheelchair bound. Right?
I don't know what the governor's objection is to this specific legislation. But it does at least superficially look like a treacherous betrayal.

 

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Donald Trump makes it crystal clear that he will attempt another coup attempt in 2024 by appearing at a fundraiser for treasonous Jan. 6th insurrectionists. The MAGA movement sees the violent criminals who attempted to overthrow our democracy as heroes and they will gladly repeat the capitol attack if given the chance.

The disgusting anti-American fundraiser was held at Trump's Bedminster golf club on behalf of the odious "Patriot Freedom Project," a group specifically dedicated to helping the insurrectionists. At least one defendant was present at the fundraiser.

During his remarks, Trump promised to make a personal contribution to the group.

If he follows through it will be as if he literally paid these people to attempt the insurrection. Trump has already vowed to pardon a "large portion" of the Jan. 6th traitors if he wins back the White House, which is a bit like a mafia boss promising to protect his enforcers.

It can not be made any more clear. Donald Trump is an unrepentant criminal who belongs behind bars. If he wins the presidency, America as we know it will end.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672373830629863424

 

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Trumpworld Rages at McCarthy: ‘Kevin’s in Trouble Now’​

The speaker (briefly) said he wasn’t sure who the strongest GOP candidate was in 2024. That was too much for MAGAworld
NIKKI MCCANN RAMIREZ, ASAWIN SUEBSAENG

HOUSE SPEAKER KEVIN McCarthy sent Donald Trump’s allies into a rage Tuesday when he questioned whether the twice-impeached, twice-indicted former president was “the strongest” candidate to beat President Biden in 2024.

“Can he win that election? Yeah he can,” McCarthy said of Trump on CNBC. “The question is, ‘Is he the strongest to win the election?’ I don’t know that answer.”

The often very pro-Trump House speaker added: “Anybody can beat Biden. Can Biden beat other people? Yes, Biden can beat them. It’s on any ...

Trumpworld Rages at McCarthy: 'Kevin's in Trouble Now'

The speaker (briefly) said he wasn’t sure who the strongest GOP candidate was in 2024. That was too much for MAGAworld

www.rollingstone.com

 

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Pro-RFK Jr. Super PAC Has Deep Ties to Marjorie Taylor Greene, George Santos​

The Super PAC is just one example of the nominally Democratic candidate running a campaign that's awash in support from backers of Donald Trump
ADAM RAWNSLEY, ASAWIN SUEBSAENG

LAST MONTH, SUPPORTERS of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential bid created a Super PAC titled Heal the Divide. On its website, the group — whose name is borrowed from Kennedy’s own campaign slogan — advises voters that “Only Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. can unite the Nation to start healing America,” and allows visitors to donate both in dollars and cryptocurrency.

There’s nothing abnormal about a candidate getting a Super PAC, even a candidate making a long-shot bid like Kennedy’s. What is abnormal, however, is that Kennedy is running as a Democrat in the Democratic primary, while the creators of the Super PAC have a deeply pro-Donald Trump bent — including ties to arch-MAGA officials such as ....

Pro-RFK Jr. Super PAC Has Deep Ties to Marjorie Taylor Greene, George Santos

The Super PAC is just one example of the nominally Democratic candidate running a campaign that’s awash in support from backers of Donald Trump

www.rollingstone.com

 

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Even worse - Trump likes him

RFK Jr.: ‘I’m proud that President Trump likes me’​

RFK Jr.: ‘I’m proud that President Trump likes me’

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to criticize former President Trump on Wednesday night and said he was flattered by recent comments from Trump praising him as a “common-sense guy.” Asked …

thehill.com

 

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And the solution has nothing to do with adopting policies those young voters approve of. Instead it's to increase the voting age. And shut down polling stations on university campuses. And ban the use of student ID as proof of residence.

 

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It's easy to understand why so much attention goes to the GOP.
It's unprecedented.
Trump seems to be the most criminal U.S. president in history, apparently rivaling Nixon, the only U.S. president to resign in disgrace. BUT !!

Remember 1992? U.S. President Bush (elder) had just scored a stunning military victory in Kuwait / Iraq. Bush (elder) had unprecedented high popularity ratings, above 90%. That was when Governor Bill Clinton announced he would challenge GHWB for the presidency in the 1992 election.
Some may forget, H. Ross Perot's third party candidacy siphoned off enough "conservative" votes to split the Republican electorate, giving Clinton the win.

Fast forward 3 decades.
If Cornel West runs 3rd party, and splits the Dem vote, the Republican nominee may win the election. Right now, Trump is not only more popular than any other Republican candidate. Trump is more popular than all the rest of them combined.

Politics / CNN

Poll shows why Biden should be ‘a little concerned’ about Cornel West​

Former Obama senior adviser David Axelrod tweeted that third-party presidential candidate Cornel West could swing the 2024 election to former President Donald Trump. Democratic strategist Basil Smikle explains why President Joe Biden and Democrats should be ‘a little concerned.’

 

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Trump seems to be the most criminal U.S. president in history, apparently rivaling Nixon, the only U.S. president to resign in disgrace. BUT !!

I'm not sure I'd use the word "seems" but I do have to say that as long as I've been following politics I always thought the sitting POTUS had the best interests of America and Americans at heart. That even goes for Nixon - as unethical (and illegal) as his actions may have been I always thought he was doing what he thought was best for America.

That didn't mean I agreed with their policies and actions and I definitely does not mean that I approved. Just that I always felt they were doing what they thought was right.

Then along came Trump and everything changed - Donnie has never been interested in what was good for anyone but Trump. The country be damned.

 

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I'm not sure I'd use the word "seems" but I do have to say that as long as I've been following politics I always thought the sitting POTUS had the best interests of America and Americans at heart. That even goes for Nixon - as unethical (and illegal) as his actions may have been I always thought he was doing what he thought was best for America.
That didn't mean I agreed with their policies and actions and I definitely does not mean that I approved. Just that I always felt they were doing what they thought was right.
Then along came Trump and everything changed - Donnie has never been interested in what was good for anyone but Trump. The country be damned.

BUT !!
That explains Trump.
What plausible explanation can we slap together for how Trump swept the 2016 primaries, & then won the election (but not the vote)?

MILLIONS voted for this guy! WHY ?!
Either they're so stupid they don't know what a swindler Trump is, or they're so indifferent to the unprecedented privilege of being a citizen of our Constitutional republic that they simply don't care that Trump fomented insurrection. MILLIONS !!

 

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The obvious answer to your question includes a couple of things.

First is that Hillary had too much baggage. And her public persona was that of a very unpleasant person. So that turned off a lot of voters and you have to ask how many of the votes for Trump were really votes against Hillary (after all, she was going to win so why not cast a protest vote). But the DNC was determined to put her on the ballot and did everything in their power to engineer the results of the primaries to ensure that.

Second, the media made it clear that Trump was going to go down in flames. It wasn't even going to be close. So why bother voting. I know I talked to a number of people who didn't like either candidate and, since the election was a foregone conclusion, why bother.

Of course Trump promised to "drain the swamp" and Hillary was definitely part of it so why put her in a position of power?

And Hillary ran a crappy campaign.

That's an oversimplification but I think it hits some of the high points.

 

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That's an oversimplification but I think it hits some of the high points.

It might explain 2016.
An enormous amount of superlative history has transpired since then.

The most recent polling data corroborated by other polls & previous polls indicate Trump is the leading contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Trump has dozens of felony indictments. If nominated, if elected Trump might have to serve some or much of his "4 years" from the federal pen.

In a population of 300+ million we expect a few oddballs. BUT !! This madman was actually elected president.

"I will build a great, great wall on our Southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall, mark my words." Republican primary presidential candidate Donald J. Trump 15/06/16 www.DonaldJTrump.com

They know he's a compulsive liar.
They know he fomented insurrection and tried to extend his own expired presidential term by overturning the election and Trump is STILL the Republican front-runner !!

Blame Hillary if you like.
Seems to me indisputably clear that something far more sinister than Hillary Clinton is causing this. "It's INSANITY!" Andre Marrou

 

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Tatyana Tandanpolie
Thu, July 13, 2023 at 10:23 AM EDT

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., has officially been removed from the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., confirmed to NBC News Wednesday, citing the right-wing Georgian's clashes with her colleagues. Greene is the first lawmaker to be booted from the ultraconservative group since it was started by Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and then-Reps. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., and Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., and others in 2015.

Other Freedom Caucus members had said the group voted on June 23 to oust Greene in part due to her argument with Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., on the House floor last month and vocal support of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., during his bid for the speakership and trillion-dollar debt deal with President Joe Biden. But confusion about her status in the group has mounted over the last few weeks after Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry, R-Pa. declined to comment on the matter, and Greene insisted she was not informed she was removed. Some members suggested Greene has been dodging Perry's attempts to deliver the news. By Wednesday, she told NBC News that she and Perry still had not spoken personally about the issue.

Buck said the Georgia conservative was removed because of her repeated "attacks" on her GOP colleagues, not her political views. "She has consistently attacked other members of the Freedom Caucus in an irresponsible way, and as a result of that she was kicked out of the Freedom Caucus," he said, "and she should not be, she should not be a member."

House Freedom Caucus members say MTG dodging GOP chairman to avoid getting kicked out

Despite congresswoman's efforts, she has officially gotten the boot from the far-right group, Rep. Ken Buck says

news.yahoo.com

Their objection isn't Greene's politics, it's her manners.

 

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An experienced team of 25 Mennonites can build a barn in a weekend.
A single talentless drunkard can set that same barn alight, destroying it in less than an hour.

Thus doing what is constructive requires much more talent, and produces far richer rewards than what is destructive.

For centuries even destructive U.S. politics was a tactic, a means of one political party undermining a political status quo, to be replaced with an opposing party's preferred policy.

In the Donald J. Trump era of U.S. politics, destruction has become an end in itself. There are numerous examples.

President Trump criticized the 7 party nuclear agreement with Iran, also including Britain, France, Germany, China, Russia, & U.S.
But rather than replacing the Obama administration agreement with an ostensibly superior Trump administration treaty, Trump merely withdrew the U.S. from nuclear control of Iran.

Similar story with healthcare.

"I am going to take care of everybody. I don't care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody's gunna be taken care of much better than they're taken care of now." Candidate Trump 15/09/27 to CBS Scott Pelly
"You're going to have such great healthcare at a tiny fraction of the cost." candidate Trump 16/10/25 from campaign podium

But Trump's major contribution to fulfilling this campaign commitment was to do what he could to dismantle Obamacare.

How corrosive, how destructive has this destructive Republican party methodology become?
The January 6 insurrection was an attack on the United States Constitution, the Republican party's attempt to replace the duly elected President Biden with President Trump.

But this Republican compulsion to destroy has become so volatile, it is now even directed inward, to the GOP itself.

'Clowns': GOP primary a fruitless exercise in shadow of Trump's dominance​

While the political press dilligently goes through the motions of reporting on the Republican primary as if there's an actual contest, Donald Trump is so clearly the party's chosen leader that the primary seems hardly a worthy exercise.

'Clowns': GOP primary a fruitless exercise in shadow of Trump's dominance

While the political press dilligently goes through the motions of reporting on the Republican primary as if there's an actual contest, Donald Trump is so clearly the party's chosen leader that the primary seems hardly a worthy exercise. The hosts of Showtime's The Circus, John Heilemann, Mark...

news.yahoo.com

President Biden has announced his intention to run for re-election in 2024.
And Joe Biden has already beaten Donald Trump in the 2020 election.
Yet for reasons antithetical to cognitive thought, despite Trump being the most indicted presidential candidate in U.S. history, not only has D.J. Trump amassed / retained more support than any other candidate in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
Trump has more support than all of the numerous other Republican presidential candidates combined.

Apparently this newfound Republican compulsion to destroy has reflected inward, preferring to support a candidate that has already lost to his Democrat opponent.

"I will build a great, great wall on our Southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall, mark my words." Republican primary presidential candidate Donald J. Trump 15/06/16 www.DonaldJTrump.com

 

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fifth column n. A clandestine subversive organization working within a country to further an invading enemy's military and political aims. [First applied in 1936 to rebel sympathizers inside Madrid when four columns of rebel troops were attacking that city.] fifth colum·nism (kŏləm-nĭz′əm) n. fifth columnist n. The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition copyright ©2022 by HarperCollins Publishers. All rights reserved.

 

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"If you wanna be the nominee you need to defend your record. And he has a record, 4 years as president where he didn't deliver on a lot of issues that Republicans care deeply about.
- He didn't repeal & replace Obamacare like he said he would, even though he had a Republican congress.
- He said he was gunna balance the budget, he added six $Trillion to the national debt.
- He said he was gunna build a wall in Mexico, he built 47 miles of new wall. ... At that pace ... he'd need 110 years as president to be able to finish the wall." former New Jersey Governor and current Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie on ABC-TV this week 23/07/16 commenting on the viability of candidate Trump for the nomination, and a second term as president

 

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"If you wanna be the nominee you need to defend your record. And he has a record, 4 years as president where he didn't deliver on a lot of issues that Republicans care deeply about.
- He didn't repeal & replace Obamacare like he said he would, even though he had a Republican congress.
- He said he was gunna balance the budget, he added six $Trillion to the national debt.
- He said he was gunna build a wall in Mexico, he built 47 miles of new wall. ... At that pace ... he'd need 110 years as president to be able to finish the wall." former New Jersey Governor and current Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie on ABC-TV this week 23/07/16 commenting on the viability of candidate Trump for the nomination, and a second term as president

Unfortunately, even with that, Trump's faithful are still convinced he's the best president ever.

 

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"One of the differences between reality & fiction is, fiction has to make sense." fiction author Thomas Leo Clancy Jr.

Unfortunately, even with that, Trump's faithful are still convinced he's the best president ever.

Not plausible, BUT evidently practically true.

"Oh woe is everything!" Grace06

S2,
I thought I'd posted this already. Maybe not.

"Donald Trump is not just a candidate, he's a social club. And my colleague David French made this point this week, that when you're in the Trump rally or you're in a Trump caravan, or one of the boat crusades it's fun, they're having fun. They enjoy it. They're around people who agree with them. Ah they have a beer. And it's a sense of belonging. I think we've under-covered that element, and so for a lot of people signing up for Donald Trump is not just this policy or that policy. It's not an attachment to a normal political candidate. It's a movement that provides them with a sense of belonging.
And so despite all that happened, Donald Trump now among Republican voters has 78% approval." NYT columnist David Brooks on PBS/NH 23/07/07

That doesn't justify it. But it may help explain it,
President Trump: a social club. [get close enough to the podium, might get a free MAGA hat!]

 

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Then there's "the other candidate"

Private GOP Polling Data Reveals Why DeSantis’ Campaign Is Sputtering​

The Florida governor wanted to unseat Trump in part by harnessing voters' rage over Covid and vaccines. Internal data reveal that's a losing bet
ASAWIN SUEBSAENG, ADAM RAWNSLEY

RAGE AGAINST COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine mandates accelerated Ron DeSantis’ rise to the top of the Republican Party. It was supposed to be a key part of the governor’s plan to outflank Donald Trump in the 2024 primary.

But here’s the problem: Republican voters, at this point, largely just don’t care — at least not when they’re picking a candidate.

Six different Republican operatives, campaign officials, and pollsters described or shared with Rolling Stone internal data and surveys they’d conducted or reviewed last and this year. Some of these sources are Trump-aligned, some support DeSantis, and others back different 2024 GOP presidential hopefuls. Across the board in the surveys, Covid-related policy — including vaccines and vaccine mandates — did not rank as an item of high concern for voters. That held true even when voters were specifically given the option of Covid policy when asked about their concerns. Since the middle of last year, Covid-related policy did not show up in conservatives’ top 10, or top 15, issues in any form, leading various campaigns and consultants to declare it, for the most part, unuseful.


The DeSantis campaign did not respond to a request for comment on this story.

“We don’t agree on much in American politics these days but there’s one thing everyone agrees on: They’re pretty much over talking about or thinking about Covid-19,” says Kristen Soltis Anderson, a longtime Republican pollster who adds that she and her firm are not affiliated with any 2024 presidential campaigns. “So much so that [my firm] barely asks questions about [it] in our research anymore trying to understand the Republican primary electorate. While we know there’s lingering frustration over things like mandates and closures, this pales in comparison to issues like immigration and the economy.”

There is a small but vocal cadre of online vaccine obsessives, but polling suggests their numbers are far too small to swing a primary — and certainly not one in which DeSantis, according to ...

Private GOP Polling Data Reveals Why DeSantis' Campaign Is Sputtering

The Florida governor wanted to unseat Trump in part by harnessing voters’ rage over Covid and vaccines. Internal data reveal that’s a losing bet

www.rollingstone.com