Could this strategy shut down Putin's aggression at Ukraine?

sear

sear

Administrator
Staff member
Russia's Vlad Putin has massed troops along Ukraine's border, an obvious threat of armed invasion. The threats are many, including "false flag" pretext to echo Putin's Cold War preferences.
Reports of it circle the globe:

Ukraine tension: Urgent US-Russia talks in Geneva as invasion fears grow BBC News ​


Blinken warns any Russian 'invasion' of Ukraine would be met with a 'severe and a united response' following Lavrov meeting CNN​


What options does the peace-loving West have to discourage Putin's forces in this case?

- President Obama imposed sanctions against Russia for the Russian incursion into Crimea. But does such sanction tend to reward rather than punish?

Vladimir Putin is a former Cold War KGB Colonel. Evidently Cold War is Putin's comfort zone, his actions reflect this aversion to Western prosperity.

Reports indicate Putin has interfered with U.S. electoral process, as Putin disliked presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, & favored Trump.
How then could it be argued that it would be unfair for the West to report in Russia to Russians the truth about Putin, and why they are being denied a generous share of Western Prosperity?

TOPIC QUESTION:
Should the U.S. / NATO / West diplomatically, behind closed doors, inform Putin if the aggressive military forces Putin has amassed against Ukraine are not immediately removed, the good People of Russia will receive the following message:

Dear People of Russia:
Your brothers & sisters of the West, in NATO, the E.U., U.K., & U.S. enjoy unprecedented prosperity.
It is not necessary for your government to become like ours to benefit from this increased standard of living, as China has demonstrated.
Your leader Vladimir Putin is KGB trained, and understands Cold War dynamics better than he understands the benefits of Western prosperity for the masses, for you.
We're eager to welcome you.

Obviously Putin could counter. BUT !!
Might such option be better than adjusting to Ukraine run by a Russian puppet?
 
Putin is playing a high stakes gamble. Russia is a nuclear superpower. He might be smart enough to not risk nuclear blackmail. But he seems to have gotten what he wanted by annexing Crimea. Whatever is done to contain Putin / Russia it should be done with care.
 
The U.S. got the information on the Russian troop movement, & President Biden may get partial credit for preventing a war. That's better than winning a war, according to Sun Tzu.
"risk nuclear blackmail" R #2
Click to expand...
I acknowledge your point regarding M.A.D.
The West has options as well. One possible sanction: disconnect Russia's banking contact with the rest of the world. The problem with that is Putin retains his Cold War concept of money. When Mitt Romney ran the winter Olympics in Utah it turned a profit. When Putin hosted the winter Olympics in Sochi it cost him $20 $Billion $dollars.
Putin might believe Russia can endure without banking ties with the rest of the world. Potentially worse, Putin might believe plunging Russia into a steep downward economic spiral could benefit him (Putin) politically. Putin is obviously most comfortable in Cold War mode.
You lost!
Get over it you twit.
 
But he seems to have gotten what he wanted by annexing Crimea. Whatever is done to contain Putin / Russia it should be done with care. Ramage
I agree, more so because as we are seeing his (Putin) gamble is not paying off in any where like he expected as to a Fast take over of Ukraine . Plus being able to control what the Russian people can learn as to the War in Ukraine IMHO, there has to come a time when because the Russia people have for a number of years, enjoyed what we in the West take for granted. That again IMHO is going to put an increasing strain on keeping the Russians under control.
Two points. it appears the UK Government are paying for adverts on Russian controlled media, telling the truth as to whats happening in Ukraine. Second and I find this totally out of order, the French have made no move to stop trading with Russia and are still running shops and outlets even though UK and U.S.A. have closed or stopped supplying and owned shops in Russia. So much for France helping to put pressure on Russia. It seems that Putin has the French in his pocket.
 
Wolf said:
"it appears the UK Government are paying for adverts on Russian controlled media, telling the truth as to whats happening in Ukraine." W #4
Click to expand...
I'd like to see those.
Wolf said:
"the French have made no move to stop trading with Russia and are still running shops and outlets even though UK and U.S.A. have closed or stopped supplying and owned shops in Russia. So much for France helping to put pressure on Russia. It seems that Putin has the French in his pocket." W #4
Click to expand...
Reportedly hundreds of companies with commercial presence in Russia have shut down their operations there.
Putin has threatened to turn these assets over to anyone that will run them in the absence of their rightful owners. That may have been a week ago. No news yet on whether there will be any volunteers competent enough to succeed.
 
Wolf said:
"it appears the UK Government are paying for adverts on Russian controlled media, telling the truth as to whats happening in Ukraine." W #4
Click to expand...
I'd like to see those. Rampage.
I read the article in my Sunday Paper "Sunday Telegraph", it appears although the Russian state has closed all "Western news agents" as to the internet, there is a private Russian agency that still post's, and this is the agency the UK Government is posting to. I will try to find out more.
Plus, news today is that Russian forces are "gathering up some Ukrainian's" and sending them to Russian cities where they are forbidden to leave and have stay for at least 2 years. It's also reported, that a growing number of "academic's" are leaving Russia for European country's and a News article states that in one collage, where a Teacher was reported to have voice disagreement with with the War in Ukraine was told to told to stop telling Students the truth or would be sacked. He refusing so was sacked but when on leaving a crowd of students cheered him. The "peace in Ukraine is growing" but the Russian is not only telling those that defy it's version of events. punishment for disagreeing is 15 yrs in jail.
I watched a history of when Hitler attempted his Invasion of Europe back in 1920-1930-1940's, it remarkable how similar the Ukrainian invasion by Putin strikes a similar message. Both Dictators have the same "I have a vision" approach.
 
The news from Ukraine: Russia has lost 10% of its military complement. Ukraine's counter-offensive showing some modest success.
The news from Russia not encouraging. Reportedly over 10,000 have been arrested in Russia during the first two weeks of the war. Navalny already in prison just got 10 more years added to his sentence, allegedly for embezzling from his own campaign fund.
And it seems the 5 or 6 general officers Russia has lost in battle may have been sent into combat by Putin, punishment for what Putin perceived to be disloyalty. Your Hitler comparison makes some sense. Putin's made many textbook blunders, including obvious things like not relying on tanks during mud season, and supply problems, etc.

I can easily understand why some might wish to leave Russia. Surprising there aren't more of them departing.
And why hasn't Ukraine flattened Moscow? They're stuck on defense?
 
I learned today, that Russian Football Union, has applied to hold the U.e.f.a. Finals for 2028-2032 in Russia. Could this be a "look ahead" for the Russian Union thinking that in the next 5 to 6 years sanctions will be on the "wane".
Secondly it appears the cost of living in Russia, has risen by near 18%. That surely will "focus Russian people minds" to what the invasion is really costing "Mother Russia".
 
"Could this be a "look ahead" for the Russian Union thinking that in the next 5 to 6 years sanctions will be on the "wane"." W #8
Click to expand...
Could be.
I suspect it's Russia's attempt to insinuate that it will be so. Alarmingly, Russia may be right about it. As a layman I'd say any such suggestion should be rejected as long as Putin is in charge. And who's next after Putin? Medvedev again?
 
And who's next after Putin? Sear
An interesting point. I read yesterday that certain so called Top advisers to the Kremlin have strangely gone missing for the media and in one case has "left Russia".
Plus, it now appears that Iran is "making a closer friendship with Russia" as not only to be able to channel Oil profits Russia is making, into Iran Banks so to be able to allow use of those Profits in the World economies. In exchange for Russia helping Iran to "clinch a new Nuclear Deal", which has been held up due the Western sanitations. But, also Russia has made a new deal with Iran to supply War planes and Tanks.
As for the Saudi's not opening up further supply's to the West as to Oil, again it could be that the Saudi's see away's, of not only making more profits then before, but IMHO keeping Russia on side.
 
Politics has had the capacity to be ugly since the ancient Roman senate. BUT !!
In this case humanity hangs in the balance. The fantasy is that Putin be forced to back down. But Putin's prior behavior pattern is not backing down, but doubling-down. That's what the alarm about escalating to chemical weapons is about. Evidently it's Russia that's raised that issue. Reportedly Russia brought up the topic of Ukraine introducing chemical weapons. This is standard authoritarian practice, to telegraph their escalations by preemptively blaming -the other guy-.

Additional reports indicate Putin may be sick. You've probably already seen pics of Putin at a 20' long table with Putin at one end, and the other/s at the other end. Could be he's spooked by COVID-19. Or who knows. This AM I heard a news report about perhaps something wrong with one of his eyes. Still other reports indicate Putin may have some neurological or other disease, common to those his age.
 
Additional reports indicate Putin may be sick. Sear
Not physically sick, but like all so called "Despots " he has started to understand Human nature, when put to the test as the Ukraine's are doing now, people start to rise against "People with a Grandeurs view of themselves and or their country"..
But news this morning it appears those running the War, have come to realise "they not going to win" in so far as taking over the whole country. They are now pulling troops from much of the Ukraine and sending them to the East where they will re-enforce those who at present are in semi-control of parts of the country. But, again they are underestimating the Ukraine defiance, which will continue to fight. Now that the West is taking this "invasion" much more seriously, by supplying the Ukrainians with weapons etc. it will mean that the attacking forces of Russia are going feel the growing need for a "new ace" to play. Much talk as to the possible use of Chemical weapons is being made. However because now your President has made it clear if these weapons are used it will open up a new view as to this war and serious consequence will occur.
That sort of statement is exactly what is needed, further it equals the statement Putin made when he first ordered the invasion. Your President is playing the beginning of a very good hand of cards he holds.
But above all the World in general and the West in particular needs to start to become self reliant on Energy and food supplies, and slowly "wean" it's self away from depending on China and Russia for it's "needs".
 
New Flash news. "Mutinous Russian troops run over a over their Commander using a Tank in protest of losing many of their comrades in the failed invasion". Could be we will see more Troops revolting against their commands due to the on going heavy loses being suffered
 
"Not physically sick, but ..." W #12
Click to expand...
Perhaps both.
But my intended meaning relates to one radio report I heard that some that have observed Putin lately suspect an illness beyond the mental disease of megalomania. The mentioned one of his eyes (a symptom). I didn't get further details, and haven't gotten corroborating reports since then.

Though perhaps not common, in the U.S. military, we've lost unpopular troops to "fragging". Shoot the guy, and forensic investigation can determine the murderer. So they'd use fragmentation weapons which can't be traced to one murderer.

I can't deny the charm & appeal of W #13. Problem is, it's an anecdote. What's needed here is for the entire Russian army to pack up & go home. Not many scenarios to get there. A palace coup d'état would be lovely, particularly if the put manacles on Putin and let him rot in an obscure frigid gulag someplace.
It would be foolish to hold our breath awaiting such good fortune.

I heard a report just a few days ago that one of the reasons the Russians aren't handling the cold very well is because their commanders told them victory would be swift & certain. So the troops instead of packing for extended mortal combat they packed their own dress uniforms, so they could march in their victory parade in style. Apparently Russia's supply-line issues are related. They were lead to believe victory would be swift & easy, so no need to even plan for extended supply-line operations.
Putin has bungled from start to finish. And the brave, heroic, dauntless good People of Ukraine are paying the penalty. tragic
 
At last, the President of the U.S.A. Mr. Biden has called for a Regime change in Russia. It was said to be an un-official comment but it's what is needed. The response for the Kremlin was ;-
" Regime change can only happen if by choice of the people of the Russian
Federation" .
Since when have "People of Russia" been given a real choice.
I have no doubt that such a statement will be interpreted by so call "advisers" as a comment by an old man who should have known better, but I for one think his statement is "true blue" in that he is speaking for sane ordinary Humans.
 
W #15
It may seem I'm straddling the fence here. I believe I'm not. But I agree with what Biden said. But I do not support what Biden said.
In fact I'm troubled if not alarmed by it. If it were some impromptu comment offered casually to a reporter that caught Biden's attention as he walked past, the comment might be dismissed as ill-considered.

But Biden said this on open mic, on camera, at the podium, during his formal address at a wartime NATO meeting in Europe. How the %$#@ could such an obvious blunder find its way into such an important speech on such an important occasion?

Anyway, the white house has tried to unring the bell by "clarifying" that what Biden meant applied to Putin's influence in Ukraine, not Russia.
Everybody including Putin knows the "clarification" was a lie.

So now my deeper concern is: how could Biden have made such a conspicuous blunder. There's more than one plausible explanation, none of them particularly reassuring.

And by the way.
If I were Biden trying to warn Putin & Russian forces safely away from NATO territory, I'd have considered warning Putin: If any harm comes to ANY NATO territory during Russia's invasion / occupation of Ukraine, NATO is prepared to project equal harm on Russia starting with the Kremlin. Perhaps that's why I'm not president.
 
So now my deeper concern is: how could Biden have made such a conspicuous blunder. Sear
May be it was a "Blunder" but IMHO it's about time our so called leaders spoke with out worrying.
Putin is slowly "going down" the sanctions are biting and judging by what Putin has done so far and he seemed not to have looked at the possible his actions may have had or or having so what say you may be, some look and Biden and say "old fool" but looking at Putin we need to reassure our self's he is from this planet.
 
One must read the Russian tea leaves carefully here.

If Putin had consulted cooperatively with his military commanders, and formulated a fool-proof battle plan, and was executing on it with ruthless disciplined precision we might be able to base certain reasonable expectations on that.

Unfortunately it instead looks like Putin failed to demonstrate leadership among his senior commanders, resulting in divisions within the Russian military both about what to do, and how to do it.

Bottom line it seems obvious to me Putin has based this on his own emotional acquisitive desires, not on scholarly mastery of the leadership and strategic military skills necessary to complete a successful military campaign, such as General Schwarzkopf's Desert Shield / Desert Sword / Desert Storm.
Putin is a pathetic poseur. Putin covets greatness, but hasn't the wherewithal to earn it. Instead he wants to snatch it on the cheap, with the blood of Russians and Ukrainians alike.

How may have already died there? I've seen estimates of 10,000 or more dead Russian troops. We may never know the death-toll of either Russians or Ukrainians. It ain't over yet.

Biden's right. This solar system doesn't need Putin. Problem is, it seems unlikely internal Russia has the spine to take Putin down. Compounding that, at this point: in for a penny, in for a pound. Russia has gone this far. If Russia sticks with it, it may be able to capture and hold some of what it wants in Eastern (Russian border) Ukraine.
If Russia's generals stuck Putin in a gulag, there'd then be an internal Russian power struggle. Not inconceivable that such struggle could be as bad or worse.
And the coup plotters / conductors know, they may get stuck holding the bag for Ukraine's reconstruction. If Putin succeeds, Russia dodges that bullet.
 
Putin is a pathetic poseur. Putin covets greatness, but hasn't the wherewithal to earn it. Instead he wants to snatch it on the cheap, with the blood of Russians and Ukrainians alike. Sear
I think that statement sums up the present situation, rather well.
But, musing and reflecting, back some 150 yrs. (not long in world history) the two very different parts of America fought a bloody and passionate civil war. Both sides had their views of how America should grow. The same has happened to many other country's including the UK although "the space between" has a baring.
Putin and have posted before is not Mad in sense of the word or meaning, but he has, as we have seen and are seeing a sort view as to how he will be remembered and seen in years to come. He is IMHO trying model himself on Stalin, but has failed to understand or realise the advance in warfare in general and in technology in particular. Those who were seen as ADVISERS, have in the real world turned out to be just "Yes men/women"
As for what is being discussed now, which is a "Divided Ukraine" well IMHO as the Ukrainian defenders have done so well and are continuing to hold and in some case's push back their Russian foes, "why should they". Although Russia is a powerful country how long before the Sanctions really start to "bite" and how long before the "Russians put up"with the lowering of the standard of living, which over the last years they have become accustomed too.
Putin is powerful but like all people who have dreams of success, may be this dream will turn into an on going Nightmare.
 
It's been reported that Russia has lost 5 general officers in Ukraine so far.
My guess is the dead ones are the general officers that were not the yes men you mention. So Putin got rid of them.

depressing
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top