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BREAKING The "social contagion" line politicians have used to strip trans kids of health care just ran into 463 sets of twins.
The research pooled 463 twin pairs in which at least one twin was trans, the most comprehensive analysis on this question to date. Among identical twins, who share 100% of their genes, both twins were trans in 21.2% of pairs. Among non-identical twins, who share about half their genes, it was 8.7%. In the general population the rate sits at roughly 1%.
The team at the Murdoch Children's Research Institute in Melbourne recruited 27 twin pairs through two Australian gender clinics, confirmed who was identical with DNA testing where they could, then combined their results with three earlier twin studies.
That step-wise pattern, where the chance both twins are trans rises with genetic similarity, is not what a social trend picked up from friends or the internet looks like.
Most identical pairs in the data were not both trans, which is also true of height, personality and sexuality. Almost every human trait is shaped by genes and environment together.
The 2024 Cass Review in the UK, used by governments to justify restricting gender care for young people, leaned on a single Swedish study to argue that environmental influences during pregnancy were a more likely explanation than genetics.
That Swedish study never tested whether its twins were identical. The new analysis, with 335 same-sex pairs against Sweden's 40, found NO support for the prenatal hormone theory at all.
The belief that being trans is purely social is the rationale behind conversion therapy, a practice condemned by EVERY major Australian and US medical association.
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