Will Russia's military invasion of Ukraine include a nuclear disaster?

[Wolf]

mark, you're right that history books written in the West seem to downplay Russia's contribution to the Allied effort during World War Rampage
However we should also remember, before the main War in Europe started, Russia and Germany were sort of Allies and did carve up Europe. Then when Hitler decided that Russia could become a threat to his plan, he invaded Russia. In part the reason Hitler lost in the end, was because the huge cost in Men and war equipment he used to attack Russia drained his war effort, It should so be remember had the War in general lasted a couple more years already Hitler had advanced Rockets (which he used to attack England V1 and V2), and just may be had time been on his side he would have "copied" the U.S.A and developed an Atomic Bomb.

However as Putin has now realized to his cost, once a Nation was put under threat, and the population "rallied" to defend themselves (as happened in the UK at the start of WW11 ) his problem was not defeating an Army but a Nation. But, and this is the biggest threat the World has seen since the Cuben crisis, if Putin in an act of "desperation" were to use a so called Tactical Atomic weapon, how the West reacts will answer "who was left after WW111?"

 

[mark mywords]

before the main War in Europe started, Russia and Germany were sort of Allies and did carve up Europe. Then when Hitler decided that Russia could become a threat to his plan, he invaded Russia.

Whatever the position before the war and whatever the reasons for it Russia still engaged with Germany whilst our "friends" in America profiteered from our need and used German aggression as a tool to lift themselves out of financial depression.
America NEVER declared war on Germany - it was Germany who declared war on America (Dec 1941)
Admittedly this decision of Hitlers was of such mind blowing stupidity it was worthy of field marshal Putin

 

[sear]

"had time been on his side he would have "copied" the U.S.A and developed an Atomic Bomb." W #61

I've read Germany was working on it. I think the history I read of it called it "heavy water" experiments.

"Whatever the position before the war and whatever the reasons for it Russia still engaged with Germany whilst our "friends" in America profiteered from our need and used German aggression as a tool to lift themselves out of financial depression." m #62

FDR. The bloke rocks. From a subsequent Democrat administration decades in FDR's future: - never let a crisis go to waste -

"Admittedly this decision of Hitlers was of such mind blowing stupidity it was worthy of field marshal Putin" m #62

Ha !
BTW Craig Ferguson (Glasgow) says if you're going to mock a people on broadcast television, mock the Amish / Pennsylvania Dutch / Mennonites. They don't have televisions.
Smash Putin all you like. He doesn't post here.

 

[Rampage]

‘Sabotage’ to blame for major German rail disruption
NATO has stressed the need to protect critical infrastructure after what it called acts of gas pipeline sabotage during the Russia-Ukraine war.

An act of “sabotage” targeting communication infrastructure was to blame for a major disruption on the German railway network.
Federal police are investigating the incident, Minister of the Interior and Community Nancy Faeser said on Saturday, adding the motive for it was unclear.
The apparent attack brought train travel to a standstill throughout northern Germany and the capital Berlin at the start of the weekend, before it was fixed a few hours later.
The disruption raised alarm bells after NATO and the European Union last month stressed the need to protect critical infrastructure after what they called acts of sabotage on the Nord Stream gas pipelines.
“It is clear that this was a targeted and malicious action,” Minister for Transport Volker Wissing told a news conference.
Operator Deutsche Bahn (DB) earlier said the disruption was caused by a technical problem with the digital train radio communication system.

‘Sabotage’ to blame for major German rail disruption

NATO has stressed the need to protect critical infrastructure after what it called acts of gas pipeline sabotage.

www.aljazeera.com

Who were the saboteurs? Russian government agents? Russian sympathizers? Pranksters trying to spark a war?

Detonating explosives under sea requires resources.
This rail sabotage requires much less budget.

 

[mark mywords]

This rail sabotage requires much less budget.

Indeed any fool with access to a truck and a farm supply (ask Timothy Mc Veigh)

 

[Victor Danilchenko]

t #1,
I've puzzled over why Putin doesn't temporarily impose a military draft, to increase his troop strength. Oddly (for a dictator) it seems Russian public opinion may be a factor.

1) Russia historically has a problem with conscription imposed to sustain foreign wars; see WWI for example.
2) Russia may in fact lack logistics and materiel capacity to sustain a large-scale conscription -- anything from winter uniforms to heavy artillery is simply not available in sufficient quantity and quality.

This is why putin was so reluctant to impose conscription; and this is why I don't think it will make much of a difference at the front, but it MIGHT may a big difference (against putin) within russia.

 

[sear]

m #65
Fun things to do with a truck-load of Ammonium Nitrate.
mm, not sure m/any remember. iirc McVeigh seemed to want revenge against federal authorities, perhaps for the immolation of the Branch Davidians of Mt. Carmel, Texas. (or was it for Lon Horriucci's murder of Vicky Weaver in Ruby Ridge, Idaho?).
That's why McVeigh targeted the Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City.

Regarding the sabotage of the bridge, if I understand the TV news report I caught a glimpse of while distracted by multi-tasking, preliminary investigation suggests the bridge may have been attacked by floating bomb from water level directly below the bridge(s). I'm not sure fertilizer was used, rather doubt it with the flood of Western matériel flooding in, if Ukraine was involved.

Unanswered questions remain, both about the gas pipeline, and now the bridge(s). Was there a highway (automobile on rubber tires) bridge running parallel to a rail bridge (steel wheels)? Both were broken?

 

[mark mywords]

Russia historically has a problem with conscription imposed to sustain foreign wars; see WWI for example.

As compared with America where young men couldnt wait to fly off to die in Vietnam (bone spurs permitting)

 

[Victor Danilchenko]

As compared with America where young men couldnt wait to fly off to die in Vietnam (bone spurs permitting)

Yes. A revolution, as compared to peaceful protests and draft-dodging in US.

I thought my reference to WWI made the difference clear.

 

[sear]

m #68 & D #69
I'm far short of the gravitas needed to break that tie. BUT !!
I find very interesting the power of what seems to me to be an unwritten rule in Russia, "1) Russia historically has a problem with conscription imposed to sustain foreign wars" D #66

Normally I'd not have thought the people would be coordinated enough to muster the collective power to resist. Perhaps I'm wrong-headed about it, that it's not despite their totalitarian past, but in part because of it that the Russian people's underground network has the strength to do this.
Mr. D, I'm apparently missing a key detail on you WWI point. I deduce it's the missing puzzle piece here.
Can you throw us a vowel, a sentence or two to direct us to further investigation?

"When the picture doesn't make any sense, a piece of the puzzle is missing." psychologist Joy Browne

 

[Victor Danilchenko]

Discontent with mass conscription was a key factor in enabling russian revolution. Specifically, bolshevik agitators were able to turn entire units' bayonets inwards at the government rather than outwards at german lines -- largely due to the fact that russians couldn't stand mass conscription.

This was a major reason why putin dragged his feet for so long with announcing mobilization: it was bound to have (and is having) a catastrophic effect on russia. Support for the war has plunged, conscripts who have already been sent to war are surrendering en masse, people are fleeing russia by any means possible (over a million have left by now).

Conscripts to foreign wars make for a very low-quality military force, while placing additional unsustainable strain on russian logistics capabilities and materiel reserves.

Russians are very well aware what effect was produced by mass conscription to support a foreign war. In 1917 it brought about a revolution (WWI), in 1989 it was a major contributor to the dissolution of USSR (Afghanistan war).

Russians are willing to put up with loss and privation, as long as it feeds their sense of imperial grandeur; as long as they keep winning. But when there is no victory in sight, conscription becomes a fuse.

 

[sear]

D #71
Jeepers Mr. D.
That's an insight into today's Russian status quo, with stunning clarity & historic depth.

You have me wondering:
Might it substantially affect (shorten) the duration of the War if Ukraine elaborately called attention to how well Russian surrenders would be treated?
Of course, it might take costly collaboration / coordination with the West to fund, perhaps host the Russian POW's.

BUT !!

If it was made clear that all Russian POW would be treated very well, fed well, housed at least as well as they were before their entry into Russian military service, and perhaps if affordable, given access to educational or perhaps job training opportunities, that Russian battlefield surrender could snowball, and put a stop to this senseless carnage & destruction?
I realize that might mean $Billions, and might require serious help from many NATO & EU member nations, to host Russian POW in dormatory-like setting.

It may be an unusual proposal. But I'm wondering if it has potential. We're spending $Billions there anyway. Better spent on beds & books than bullets & bombs?

 

[sear]

PS
It hadn't occurred to me when I posted #72.
But it now reminds me a little of Peter Sellers' The Mouse That Roared.

It's obviously not a flawless option. But I wonder what the nations that have already supported Ukraine in this War would have to say about it.

 

[mark mywords]

Yes. A revolution, as compared to peaceful protests and draft-dodging in US.

"peaceful protests" which resulted in mass shootings of the protestors by government agents

Conscripts to foreign wars make for a very low-quality military force,

and yet time after time in war after war countries (including the US) conscript their young men to fight

 

[Victor Danilchenko]

and yet time after time in war after war countries (including the US) conscript their young men to fight

And time and time again, it works well either for defensive wars, or for quick-n-easy offensive wars -- but not for long, drawn-out offensive wars.

And in russia in particular, given its autocratic culture and imperial geopolitics, such things tend to work our particularly bad.

 

[mark mywords]

And time and time again, it works well either for defensive wars, or for quick-n-easy offensive wars

Into which of those categories would you place Vietnam and the wide SE Asian war?
or the first and second world wars?

Strange (I think) that "democratic" America has much less opposition in conscripting its young men than autocratic Russia

 

[Victor Danilchenko]

Strange (I think) that "democratic" America has much less opposition in conscripting its young men than autocratic Russia

Not strange at all. Democratic societies are inherently much more stable than autocracies. They can endure much harsher stress than autocracies can.

 

[sear]

And time and time again, it works well either for defensive wars, or for quick-n-easy offensive wars -- but not for long, drawn-out offensive wars.
And in russia in particular, given its autocratic culture and imperial geopolitics, such things tend to work our particularly bad.

"and yet time after time in war after war countries (including the US) conscript their young men to fight" m #74

Seems to me you guys are on the same page, trying to make more of a difference than your true positions warrant.

I think D #75 is addressing the unusual vulnerability Putin has in this specific case.
It seems not merely Putin but the entire Kremlin OD'd on their own poisoned Kool-aid; deluding themselves Ukraine would be as easy a plum to pick as Crimea.

I deduce from D #75 & other D's that Russian sentiment was: we won't pass judgement either way. Maybe Ukraine will fall easily, maybe not. BUT !! Either way, keep us out of it.
And I gather Putin was so hypnotized by his own propaganda that he figured it wouldn't matter.

Wrong again Vlady.

It's now a genuine class-A fuster-cluck. And Putin is throwing one temper tantrum after another. The under-sea gas pipeline sabotage? Putin I suspect. Motive? His KGB mantra: Do something. What else could he do?
He rattled the nuclear sabre.
Didn't work.

So now he's launching rockets, killing civilians. Somebody's gotta thump this guy on the noggin, real real hard!

 

[Victor Danilchenko]

The under-sea gas pipeline sabotage? Putin I suspect. Motive?

I suspect the motive was to destabilize the european economies, bring the inconvenienced burghers out into the streets, thus forcing them to abandon the anti-russia coalition and focus on addressing the domestic unrest.

This is his only promise of success, however false that promise is -- set off a chain of chaotic events, fracture the anti-russia coalition, and make them turn their gaze away from russian atrocities.

 

[sear]

I suspect the motive was to destabilize the european economies, bring the inconvenienced burghers out into the streets, thus forcing them to abandon the anti-russia coalition and focus on addressing the domestic unrest.
This is his only promise of success, however false that promise is -- set off a chain of chaotic events, fracture the anti-russia coalition, and make them turn their gaze away from russian atrocities.

Thanks for that Mr. D. I've been puzzling over that one from the moment I first got news of it. Might seem rude of me to say it's the best explanation so far. It's my only explanation so far. BUT !

I think it was Art Doyle that said, rule out all the other possibilities, and that one remaining possibility no matter how seemingly improbably is the correct explanation.

Desperation. "A drowning man will clutch at a straw." Sir (Saint) Thomas More