When tanks roll, currencies stampede. How deep into your pocket can Vlad Putin reach ?

T

titan

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Bloomberg

Dollar Surges Versus Almost Everything on Ukraine Conflict Risks​

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar is rising against virtually every peer as fallout from the deepening conflict in Ukraine supercharges demand for the world’s reserve currency. Most Read from BloombergEU Discusses Sanctions on Tycoons; Euro Slides: Ukraine UpdateU.S., Europe Cut Some Russian Banks From SWIFT:

There are numerous complications. One potentially overlooked:
- The U.S. $Dollar is often used as safe haven for overseas money. A problem for Putin, U.S. dollar assets traced to Putin / Russia are now subject to being frozen. Fine. In short term it may seem expedient.

But long term?
If foreign wealth doesn't want to risk such "temporary" blocked access to their own money, they may be smart enough to park such sums elsewhere in the future.
That would not merely be a shift of wealth, away from the U.S.
It would also be a loss of coercive power.

The short term seems reliably predictable. But what of the longer term?
 
You read the same papers I read T-man. The Rubble dropped below one U.S. penny a few days ago.
$110 / bbl petroleum seems to be the new normal, until it goes higher.

Most of our merchandise in stores is delivered by truck. When the cost of truck fuel increases, so does the retail price of the merchandise the trucks deliver to store.

The question has already arisen here. -Would you pay more if it also imposed more influence on the Russian economy?
 
The short term seems reliably predictable. But what of the longer term? titan
If the sanction's which are being imposed at this time against the Rich Russians, do take effect in making them very much less wealthy, then "the buck" has to stop some where, and if that leads to Putin all so well and good. But as he (Putin) at this time see's himself beyond mire wealth and is looking way into the future when he hopes things will settle, the only effect they will have is making ordinary Russians very much less wealthy and starts to put pressure on their life's. It could bring about a growing resentment which in terms could see an uprising. After all if you can't feed and cloth your family what is there to lose.
 
W #3

Grim, if irrefutable.

Bizarrely, these Western / civilized sanctions may inadvertly be playing into Putin's hands. For when these sanctions are imposed, the result will be similar to the Cold War itself, a political climate Putin seems to prefer to cinderella Russia scrimping by in the shadow of Western prosperity.
 
t #4

"Better to rule in hell than serve in Heaven" Dante

It's surely not a universal preference. But Vlady seems OK w/ it.
 
Interesting, but what if Putin, as time ticks by and he realises that he is no longer able (even if people move out of the way and let him score) to influence those around him.
A little like the Proud and ruthless Wolf, who controlled his empire saw his power grow, then suddenly wakes up and see "Young bucks" start to take his Kingdom away. Does he roar through a mouth with less teeth, does he struct while looking for a handle to hold on to, no if he is able, escapes with a bow and smile and settles into a life where his females make allowance's making sure his hearing aid is working,
While he (Putin) now enjoys being waited on and bowed too we hope that in a short time Putin will look, see he is not able to :-
Cry "Havoc", and let slip the Dogs of War.
Yet another thought came to me (later in the day).
What really has happened, those in the West have forgotten as to the Wolfs (not myself) inner power. When the Wolf comes to your door, you can feed it, water it, and treat it kindly. But as we have seen and we are seeing Putin as the Wolf, will never change it's temperament, the Wolf is predator and will always be one.
 
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Basically, yes.
There's room for hope.

Romania's General Secretary Nicolae Ceausescu was captured by the Romanians Ceausescu had ruled so ruthlessly.
They tried Ceausescu & convicted him of genocide and executed him Dec. 25, Christmas 1989
I like stories with happy endings. But I believe it's a rare exception. Putin's not the sharpest knife in the drawer, though Putin tries to make up with ruthlessness what he lacks in intellect. I don't expect the Russian People to capture Putin, and hold him for Ukrainian / Western authorities. But it would be a nice reason to celebrate next weekend.
 
But it would be a nice reason to celebrate next weekend. Sear
Yes, it would be (if we could dare use the words) a very Happy ending. But after what we have seen as to the total horror which has happened and still happening in Ukraine, I just wonder if the World (apart from the equals as to Putin which are just lap dogs in reality) will allow Putin to escape the Hook.
I have a feeling which is not based on any facts, if the World will unite, and not allow Putin to escape a punishment which would not include Russia with regards the people. China tells the World she is rock solid behind Russia. But as again we are told if Putin did (he still might) crushed the Ukraine would the World still be united in Punishing him? China is number 2 (behind the U.S.A. )as to her economy, but that is only because the free World buys her goods. What if sensing as we are, that the World are "stirring" and starts to "Make at home"?. After all, Japan even after the Second World, did survive and did become a Suppler to the World, so may be China is "eying the World" and waiting to see how things will turn out, before she also "jumps Ship".
 
You're right. Russia invading Ukraine is huge. But what China feels empowered by it to do later may well be huger.
It's so depressing W, it's almost as if I have a limit, and beyond the limit I change the channel. I do get a glimmer of good news now & then. But it seems Russia / Putin is determined, and doesn't care about the slaughter.
 
Putin's not the sharpest knife in the drawer, though Putin tries to make up with ruthlessness what he lacks in intellect. Sear
I am after thought, inclined to agree.
However what was to me a "Fantastic" piece of news, last night. While a News caster on a Russian Government controlled TV show was broadcasting the so called news, a Female Editor suddenly appeared behind the News castor with a sign which read "No War, End the War", she than sat down to give further No War News.
Two points, the first what courage and intellect did the Editor show, knowing she would be arrested and serve time. But also it is the start I believe of a growing dissatisfaction as to what is happening in Russia. It's a sign which the West should start to take on board. The U.S.A President has told the Chinese government that any help including supplies and Soldiers it should think about sending Putin, then China will be subjected to same type of sanctions Russia is experiencing.
May be your President is showing a much more realistic view as to the possible harm Putin is doing to not only Russia, but the World.
Just may be again from reading that Putin has given his so call Intelligent agency, who gave him an assessment as to "yes the Ukraine people will welcome you" a very large kick up the rear-end, things could, may be in the short term change, as in "Putin will be given orders to leave Ukraine or a new entry point will happen as to his head". Who knows we can but Hope.
 
I've seen the same video from Russia.
The update I got was that she got a slap on the wrist, rather than 10 years in a gulag.
BUT !! I doubt she has long to live. Putin's enemies generally have a tendency to die in or near Moscow, or vanish mysteriously.
 
I think your right Sear as to the fate of the young Lady, but again what courage and what now?. But the mood in Russia seems to be changing and just may be there is "a Light at the end of the tunnel". I might be just a Hoping, but the World seems to be starting a new direction, and may be "Peace will break out".
 
Putin knows how to run a propaganda campaign.
Not sure how he'll explain the troop losses Russia is suffering there. Not yet 7PM here, but the news from Ukraine is as grim as ever.
 
- update -
Apr. 08, 2022 12:43 PM Summary
  • On March 25, 2022, the Bank of Russia announced that it would set a fixed price for gold purchases made with rubles beginning March 28th through June 30th, 2022.
  • London markets have refused to accept Russian bullion for some weeks now.
  • Despite the clamor of incorrect headlines regarding Russia’s embrace of gold, it remains a positive step.
By Peter C. Earle

After ten days of offering to purchase gold for a fixed number of rubles, the Russian central bank has announced that going forward it will pay negotiated rates in future purchases of gold in rubles.
On Friday, March 25, 2022, the Bank of Russia announced that it would set a fixed price for gold purchases made with rubles beginning on Monday, March 28th through June 30th, 2022. (Also, on March 28, the Russian government further announced that international commodity purchases may no longer be made in dollars or euros, but rather that everything from oil and natural gas to grains and industrial metals must be transacted in rubles.)
At that time, the Bank of Russia stood willing to purchase gold from Russian banks at a fixed 5,000 rubles per gram, which set an effective “floor” on the ruble. At 31.1 troy ounces per gram, with the Russian central bank bidding for gold at 5,000 rubles per gram, one ounce of gold would be purchased for 155,500 rubles.
The Kremlin’s goals are obvious: They seek to force nations to transact in their currency which, owing to a comprehensive and growing array of Western sanctions, had been steeply devalued. They also, by demanding payment in rubles, are attempting to increase demand for their currency while spurning trade in the familiar medium of US dollars.
London markets have refused to accept Russian bullion for some weeks now. Nevertheless, the ruble has recovered from its lows of 138.93 to $1 on March 7, 2022 to between 78 and 82 to the US dollar over the last few days. The exchange rate now sits roughly where it was when the invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.

seekingalpha.com

A Note On The New Russian 'Gold Standard'

On March 25, 2022, the Bank of Russia announced that it would set a fixed price for gold purchases made with rubles beginning March 28th through June 30th, 2022. Read more.
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com

Putin's mad scramble is obvious. His 3 day conquest is obviously not going well for him. Putin's front line troops are not getting resupplied. So Russian troops have been stealing food from Ukrainians. And now it seems, Ukrainians have been poisoning the food Russian troops have stolen.

The bigger picture tells an encouraging story.
Biden Seeks $33 billion More in Aid for Ukraine, on top of the $13.6 billion congress has already approved. Why so much?

Biden sees the broader issue as not merely Russia against Ukraine. Biden perceives this was as an existential threat, autocracy vs democracy. So Biden seems determined to make this Putin adventure in Ukraine a failure for Putin / Russia.

Hopefully if Putin's failure and humiliation are bad enough it will discourage if not eliminate future similar autocratic aggressions in the future. That's probably part of Biden's intention with the $33 billion.
 
Putin's mad scramble is obvious. His 3 day conquest is obviously not going well for him. Rampage
Totally agree, but. What now seems to be happening is he is "Tailoring his ambitions" by taking as much Territory he can before the 9th May when he makes his speech on the Anniversary of when Russia celebrated their Victory over Hitler's Germany at the end of World War 2.
But again he will continue to make up for the Disaster of his invasion of Ukraine.
Putin is again using the terms of Nuclear War to try and stop any N.A.T.O interference in Ukraine. But if he Putin to allowed to get away with this "Check Mate" play, we will never in the West be safe.
 
It's cliche' that an animal is most dangerous when cornered. Problem is, Putin has cornered himself. The U.S. didn't want this. Certainly Ukraine didn't. So now Putin is flailing, trying to find something he can declare a victory.

The hardship on Ukraine is severe. Whether that will influence the decision on how the final terms are negotiated, I'm not sure. I hope not. I'd like to see Russia kicked out of Ukraine without gaining a single square inch of territory. But that may not be an option.
"But if he Putin to allowed to get away with this "Check Mate" play, we will never in the West be safe." W #15
Click to expand...
You and R #14 seem to share that perspective. At this stage, I wouldn't know what to think, other than that. But it's grim.

Meanwhile, despite further Russian destruction, there's reports of efforts to open / keep open / re-open import - export operations at Odessa. Food is scarce enough in Ukraine. But reports indicate hunger may spread if Russia shuts down these ports.
 
The U.S. didn't want this. Certainly Ukraine didn't. So now Putin is flailing, trying to find something he can declare a victory. Sear
The real problem IMHO is that the West have allowed him "to think he is the one".
Putin has been no difference from another leader, who once thought to himself" I am the one" Hitler. Again IMHO, like Hitler he convinced others to believe he could work "Miracles". He "charmed the European country's by supplying cheap energy" making them dependant on Russia. He also had this dream of making Russia once again become the old U.S.S.R. which in the end collapsed, and allowed countries in Europe to lead a Democrat life. In the Ukraine he was told by his so called advisers "no worries once you march in people will welcome you". He was not only miss lead but in his mind again thought "Russia would rule".
The outcome as we are seeing has not only a growing "defeat of his plan" but has led to what could become a World faced with a World War 3.
On May the 9th he will address his "people" who have already seen the growing failure of his "Invasion", so he will have make a speech in which I have no doubt will contain a threat to the Western leaders "you take me on and I will Launch".
 
"He "charmed the European country's by supplying cheap energy" making them dependant on Russia." W #17
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In 20:20 hindsight, deliberately so. BUT !!

By invading Ukraine Putin has nailed that coffin shut, potentially with himself trapped on the inside.
Germany et al may not be able to ween themselves off the Gazprom nipple right away. But they're working on it, and they're serious about it.
And I believe & hope once long term alternate supplies are solidified to current Western European consumers of Russian fossil fuel will be a commodity available to only a small global market.
"The outcome as we are seeing has not only a growing "defeat of his plan" but has led to what could become a World faced with a World War 3." W #17
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It's like dominoes. A leads to Z. BUT !!

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is a former U.S. 4 star general, a massively impressive guy. Austin has been quite candid about wanting to see Russia's (Putin's) war-fighting capabilities substantially degraded.

I've not read a single syllable about it W #17. But the timing of U.S. aid to Ukraine troubles me, alarms me.
All of this aid could have been arranged months earlier, as Russian troops began massing on Ukraine's border. Instead it looks to me like the U.S. wanted Ukraine to get a bloody nose, and a broken arm first. After thousands were slaughtered, then the U.S. steps in.

There are multiple possible explanations for this, justification among them. In any case, the ensuing bloodletting has degraded Russia's war fighting capacity. But the cost to Ukraine is horrific.
"I have no doubt will contain a threat to the Western leaders "you take me on and I will Launch"." W #17
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Mexican standoff
"Confrontation amongst two or more parties in which no participant can proceed or retreat without being exposed to danger" - OR -
"A Mexican standoff is a confrontation in which no strategy exists that allows any party to achieve victory."

You're right of course. BUT !!
Due to the U.S. nuclear triad:
- land based MIRV-ICBM
- bomber-launched cruise nukes that fly under Russian defensive radar to target
- submarine-launched MIRV-ICBM that some accounts claim have multiple planetary overkill

Putin may be a half-wit. But I imagine he's smart enough to know for Putin to execute on such threat would be global suicide. So the West's loathsome task is to find a way to persuade Putin he can:
- back down from Ukraine
- suffer an indisputable defeat there
- and yet still appear heroic to Russia's propaganda-soaked masses.

I heard a chilling account of Ukrainian family members taking shelter in their basement, to avoid being killed by Russian shelling, and reporting their situation by telephone to family members inside Russia during the Russian attack.
That report claimed the family members in Russia simply did not believe what their own family members were telling them, because it was so contrary to the "news" they'd been getting from Putin's propaganda machine.
 
Putin may be a half-wit. But I imagine he's smart enough to know for Putin to execute on such threat would be global suicide. So the West's loathsome task is to find a way to persuade Putin he can:
- back down from Ukraine
- suffer an indisputable defeat there
- and yet still appear heroic to Russia's propaganda-soaked masses. Sear

It's my opinion that Putin is not a "Half Wit", what he has allowed himself to be is "deluded" by his close aids. This is not just now, it goes back sometime, with his aids over a period of time convincing him that by making "Europe" slowly become dependant on Russian energy, so the plan of taking Ukraine and possible other European countries has been on going for sometime. What does amaze me that no country in Europe and the U.S.A. have even thought that by slowly encouraging the West to believe that the leaders of Russia had become "sane and non aggressive". Surely History has taught us "to never hold the Tiger by it's tail", more, never trust those that have a very different way of life as how the population is controlled. Yet the West has allowed it's self not only to be "lulled" into believing Russia Leaders have become more Democratic but that the past has been forgotten. We must remember that at the beginning of the last World War, Russia leaders made a "deal " with the German leaders which allowed Russia to take Poland and other countries. The Russian people are no different from any people, it's just what they are taught and led to believe more or less the same which happened with the Germany people when Hitler rose to power.
 
"Due to the U.S. nuclear triad:" s #18
Click to expand...
Part #II
Due to the U.S. nuclear triad, a preemptive Russian nuclear strike to eliminate the risk of MAD retaliation is virtual zero.
"It's my opinion that Putin is not a "Half Wit", what he has allowed himself to be is "deluded" by his close aids." W #19
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Intelligence isn't quantified by a single criterion. For example, some school students test well in English, but poorly in math. In the extreme, an "idiot savant" may not be able to care for himself independently, but be able to play the piano as well as a concert musician.

There surely seems to be some things Putin has talent for. Bumping off his political opponents is an example that comes to mind. But Putin hasn't risen to the level of novice in economics, even if Putin coerced Russia's oligarchs to cut him in on their wealth.
"he has allowed himself to be is "deluded" by his close aids." W #19
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You present Putin here as victim.

Is there a reason you believe it's not:
- Putin surrounded himself with yes-men, to satisfy his autocratic ambitions, or
- Putin is coercing those under his command to take actions they vehemently oppose, but dutifully comply with, to keep out of the gulag?

I don't believe Putin is a puppet, or a victim. I think Putin is a Cold War has been, a second rate leader that's less interested in serving in Heaven than ruling in Hell. It's not merely controlling Ukraine Putin's after. Putin wants to blast Ukraine into submission.
 
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