Anti-trans campaign against Spanberger in Va. governor race is failing. Poll shows why: people don't care
Erin Reed / Sat, October 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT
The
Virginia governor’s race is heating up, and one topic has been front and center in the political ad wars:
transgender issues. The contest pits
Democratic former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger against current Lt. Gov.
Winsome Earle-Sears. While Spanberger has centered her campaign on the economic fallout of federal cuts and the rising cost of living for Virginia families, Earle-Sears has saturated the airwaves with millions of dollars in anti-trans ads. Now new polling shows Spanberger pulling ahead — while also revealing that transgender issues sit at the very bottom of voter concerns in the commonwealth.
A new
Hill/Emerson College poll shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 10 points overall, a significant margin. Among independent voters, the gap widens even further, with Spanberger up by 19 points. The poll also offers important insight into why Spanberger may be pulling ahead. When asked about the issues that have played an outsized role in this campaign, large majorities ranked the economy, education, and healthcare as top concerns, with between 80 and 90 percent saying these issues were important. By contrast, the majority of respondents said that transgender issues were unimportant — the only issue in the race to receive such a rating.
When looking at the
crosstabs, the dynamic becomes clearer: transgender issues are unlikely to drive the outcome in Virginia in the direction of Earle-Sears. While a majority of voters overall find the issue unimportant, those who do prioritize it are not necessarily aligned with Earle-Sears. Many of them likely consider it important because they support transgender rights. In fact, 56 percent of Democrats said transgender issues are important — a higher share than
Republicans. Independents, meanwhile, overwhelmingly shrug off the issue, with 61 percent calling it unimportant. That lack of concern helps explain why independents are breaking so strongly for Spanberger, who has focused instead on core issues like the economy and health care.
This article originally appeared on Advocate:
Anti-trans campaign against Spanberger in Va. governor race is failing. Poll shows why: people don't care
A new poll released in the Virginia governor's race shows that the anti-trans attack ads led by Republican Earle-Sears are failing: Spanberger is up 10 points, and people don't care about trans issues.
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