HEADLINES: 2026

This article is old (2009) but the situation has only gotten worse since it was first published

 
This article is old (2009) but the situation has only gotten worse since it was first published


Two points to consider.
One is that this article was in 2009, which was right during the 2008 recession Obama was desperately trying to deal with.
That recession was caused by irresponsible real estate deals financed by short term loans with balloon payments.
And it was car makers who needed bailing out the most.
The only complaint I had against Obama's strategy is that he bailed out mortgage lenders instead mortgage buyers.
The cost would have been the same, but would have avoided the evictions.
The other point is that the Boomer generation with its large demographic started around 1950, so then obviously would then impact SS around 70 years later, in 2020.
So the article was anticipating a theoretical, which is now 5 years into this being actual.
And it does not look so bad any more, in my opinion.
We have not had a SS shortfall of significance yet, one is not estimated until 2033, and should only last 5 years or so.
So I am not too worried.
I think it is going to just be a short and small blip.
 
When did you qualify as an actuary?

For the record, you're wrong on all counts.

The Social Security Trustees Report is available on line.


The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than projected last year. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 78 percent of total scheduled benefits.
 

Abdulloi Toshpulodzoda was found not guilty by reason of insanity in the 2019 killing of his landlord​

A Virginia man found not guilty by reason of insanity in a 2019 killing fled the United States on a one-way flight to Tajikistan while on an approved 48-hour pass from a state mental health facility, according to court records.
Abdulloi Toshpulodzoda left the Northern Virginia Mental Health Institute (NVMHI) on July 6 for an authorized 48-hour pass. He was required to return two days later, but he never did, FOX 5 reported, citing court documents.
Systemic failure?
How many safeguards failed here?

Was he wearing an ankle monitor?
Did he use a passport to board the one-way flight?
Did he forfeit bond?
How do we know his real name isn't Abdulloi Toshpulodsoda ?
 
Wrong in my opinion.
Having to supplement 22% of SS payments for 5 years is not a deal breaker.
We saved a hundred times that by using the SS surplus to finance the national debt for almost a century.
In your opinion? Tell us when you qualified as an actuary. When you've earned your designation you can come back and we can talk.

Depending on your mathematical background and how hard you're willing to work it shouldn't take you more than eight to ten years to do so.

 
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"Having to supplement 22% of SS payments for 5 years is not a deal breaker.
We saved a hundred times that by using the SS surplus to finance the national debt for almost a century." R5 #364
R5,
please pardon my simple-minded intrusion.
I reduce this issue to mathematical simplicity.

Ratio of Social Security Covered Workers to Beneficiaries Calendar Years 1940 - 2013

According to ht tps://www.ssa.gov/history/ratios.html
in 1940 the ratio was over 150.
It reached 4 by 1965.
By 2013 it was at 2.8

Recognize the trend? Check the link, the chart is a breeze to review, from an authoritative source.
"Ponzi"
 

Abdulloi Toshpulodzoda was found not guilty by reason of insanity in the 2019 killing of his landlord​

A Virginia man found not guilty by reason of insanity in a 2019 killing fled the United States on a one-way flight to Tajikistan while on an approved 48-hour pass from a state mental health facility, according to court records.
Abdulloi Toshpulodzoda left the Northern Virginia Mental Health Institute (NVMHI) on July 6 for an authorized 48-hour pass. He was required to return two days later, but he never did, FOX 5 reported, citing court documents.
Systemic failure?
How many safeguards failed here?

Was he wearing an ankle monitor?
Did he use a passport to board the one-way flight?
Did he forfeit bond?
How do we know his real name isn't Abdulloi Toshpulodsoda ?

Surprised they let someone who committed a murder, out for 48 hours?
They said he already got the passport earlier.
After being found insane, there likely no longer was a bond.
 
In your opinion? Tell us when you qualified as an actuary. When you've earned your designation you can come back and we can talk.

Depending on your mathematical background and how hard you're willing to work it shouldn't take you more than eight to ten years to do so.


Social Security is not complex and does not require certification to understand.
It is just tax deferred income for retirement.
It is essentially just your own money.
If they did not pay any interest back at all, it would still be worth it.
 
R5,
please pardon my simple-minded intrusion.
I reduce this issue to mathematical simplicity.

Ratio of Social Security Covered Workers to Beneficiaries Calendar Years 1940 - 2013

According to ht tps://www.ssa.gov/history/ratios.html
in 1940 the ratio was over 150.
It reached 4 by 1965.
By 2013 it was at 2.8

Recognize the trend? Check the link, the chart is a breeze to review, from an authoritative source.
"Ponzi"

I disagree.
If you start your career around age 20 and do not retire until around 72, that is 52 years of paying in.
Average life expectancy in the US for males in 76.
So that means SS only has to pay out on the average, for 4 years.
Which means that SS will get to keep the vast amount of pay-ins and never pay-out nearly as much as paid-in.
And that does not even include all the money SS saves or earns by being able to invest in interest bearing things like treasury bonds.

What you are referring to is just liquidity of immediate pay-ins being able to cover immediate pay-outs.
And that shortfall is only expected to be less than 20% and last less than a decade.

Overall, SS is a huge money maker for the government.
 
Check the link.
The statistical trend is unmistakable.
Occasionally in statistics there can be a deviation, one data point that is not consistent with the general trend.
I don't see that in the chart displayed at: https://www.ssa.gov/history/ratios.html


Then you disagree with facts, public information, bipartisan agreement.

You miss the point.
Which that the ratio of people paying into SS does not really at all matter.
SS is useful and balanced even if you only got paid back exactly what you paid in and no more.
A one to one ratio is still perfectly successful, valid, useful, and sufficient.
The only reason you would like more than a one to one ratio is if there is high inflation and longer lifespans

Think about what happens if a person pays into SS all their life but then dies before applying for any SS payout?
Their heirs get nothing.
SS just keeps all that money paid in.

Remember that that actual purpose of SS is just to allow you to defer some taxes for awhile.
That really should be all your money they retain out of every paycheck, and if they gave you all of it back, no one else has to be taxed for you at all.
 
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You miss the point.
Which that the ratio of people paying into SS does not really at all matter.
SS is useful and balanced even if you only got paid back exactly what you paid in and no more.
A one to one ratio is still perfectly successful, valid, useful, and sufficient.
The only reason you would like more than a one to one ratio is if there is high inflation and longer lifespans

Think about what happens if a person pays into SS all their life but then dies before applying for any SS payout?
Their heirs get nothing.
SS just keeps all that money paid in.

Remember that that actual purpose of SS is just to allow you to defer some taxes for awhile.
That really should be all your money they retain out of every paycheck, and if they gave you all of it back, no one else has to be taxed for you at all.
Everything you've said about SS so far is wrong.

I've asked before - when did you qualify as an actuary because so far all you've managed to do is demonstrate that you know nothing about Social Security and pensions in general.
 
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