Overlapping bell-curves. Probably so. I'm not quite sure it's a paring suited to comparison.
bets vs polls
- Thread starter b23zombie
- Start date
i blame the GOP because they have controlled the state of florida and everything that happens there for decades, and it's not likely to change anytime soon. i ALWAYS blame those in control, no matter where they land politically. dukakis was the governor of mass. twice, the first time when i was in high school, the second not long after we moved to kansas. in my 61 years, he was by far the worst governor i've seen there, and he is a democrat.
i phrased that badly, i should have said bookies instead of bets.
Blast from the past. I'd forgotten.
Bummer about Florida. I (like most New Yorkers) have friends down there. I've worn blinders to help me forget, since Bush v. Gore. That was decades ago. I suppose it's time for me to pull a Rip van Winkle.
b #22, I'm dismayed by the GOP. It's unrecognizable to what it was in the previous millennium.
I wouldn't sweat the bookie deal. I still haven't quite sorted out the logical continuity of the topic question. No worries. It's all statistics. I try to stick to arithmetic. Easier.
BTW
Here's a consecutive integer problem that can make a head ache.
Add all the consecutive integers together, from 1 to 100.
With a calculator it takes a long time. And one mistake and it can blow your answer. Pencil and paper it takes forever, using serial addition. Know how to do it easy peasy? 3 minutes? DONE !
Know the secret?
Yes, please do.
I offered the example in #24 not because some day you might encounter a consecutive integer problem you don't have the patience to solve.
Instead I offered it because it's a concept, a mental insight that once acquired can remain poised in your mental arsenal for use in an application you can't yet anticipate.
A novice can play chess by learning how each piece moves, the horsie moves three spaces this way, and one space that way. But most chess grand masters don't trifle with that.
I offered the example in #24 not because some day you might encounter a consecutive integer problem you don't have the patience to solve.
Instead I offered it because it's a concept, a mental insight that once acquired can remain poised in your mental arsenal for use in an application you can't yet anticipate.
A novice can play chess by learning how each piece moves, the horsie moves three spaces this way, and one space that way. But most chess grand masters don't trifle with that.
b #25
Please pardon my mental lapse. The consecutive integer solution requires a simple perceptual leap. Works out easy. If the challenge, the sum of positive integers between zero and one hundred one:
Write these 100 numerals down in ascending order.
Then on the next line, write the same 100 numerals down, but in descending order.
In simple addition, the sum of the first vertical pair, 1 + 100 = 101
The sum of the second, 2 + 99 = 101
The third, 3 + 98 = 101
All 100 pairs of numerals total 101.
We know there are 100 pairs. And we know 100 x 101 = 10100
We also know that's not exactly the sum of the integers, it's twice the sum. so divide 10100 by 2 = 5050
Easy.
Only takes a minute or two.
Slogging through it with serial addition could take hours, and is highly error prone.
I'd welcome the catering math b #25. Fact is, I've long wondered.
When it's a painting job, the estimate factors in the number of square feet to be painted. A little more complicated with mouths to feed.
Please pardon my mental lapse. The consecutive integer solution requires a simple perceptual leap. Works out easy. If the challenge, the sum of positive integers between zero and one hundred one:
Write these 100 numerals down in ascending order.
Then on the next line, write the same 100 numerals down, but in descending order.
In simple addition, the sum of the first vertical pair, 1 + 100 = 101
The sum of the second, 2 + 99 = 101
The third, 3 + 98 = 101
All 100 pairs of numerals total 101.
We know there are 100 pairs. And we know 100 x 101 = 10100
We also know that's not exactly the sum of the integers, it's twice the sum. so divide 10100 by 2 = 5050
Easy.
Only takes a minute or two.
Slogging through it with serial addition could take hours, and is highly error prone.
I'd welcome the catering math b #25. Fact is, I've long wondered.
When it's a painting job, the estimate factors in the number of square feet to be painted. A little more complicated with mouths to feed.
okay, i'll give you one of my yearly puzzles, ducks unlimited. the production guy is ernie, his assistant is charles, and ernie's wife is dolores. that's important.
date of event is 10-29, ticket sales begin 10-1 and "end " 10-22. member count is 550, so we start with that number to create a budget, knowing it will change. portions are these( per person)- crudites-4 oz.
dip-2 oz.
cheese cubes/slices-4 oz.
crackers-10 each
mini quiches-2 each
salad mix-3 oz.
dressing( 3 kinds) -1 oz.
tomato wedges-2( there are 12 wedges per tomato)
entree( rolled smoked brisket, each roll is 4 oz) -2
roasted baby red potatoes- 4 oz.
buttered corn-4oz.
dinner rolls- 2 each
butter pats-2 each
now, this is NOT a plated dinner, it's a buffet, and anyone can go back for seconds or more after the initial first serve, we serve out nothing, it's serve yourself. and these are hunters and their wives , so it's an auto add of 10% to your initial numbers. that's your bid, 25 bucks a person for this setup to start. BUT. then dolores decides she wants to add swedish and bbq meatballs and cocktail buns to the after app table, that's 4 meatballs and 2 buns a person.
then charlie remembers the chocolate pie i made him for his birthday, adds that to the after apps too. 6 slices per pie, and 1 oz of whipped cream.
2 weeks later, you get your initial ticket count of 375. we know ernie, he ain't done selling yet, so we add another 10% to the adjusted original number.
a week later , we get " the final " ticket count for ordering, 566. yes, above the bid number. again, we know these people, so we add another 20% to cover overages on all items, then we start prepping.
2 days before the gig, in walks dolores in tears, ernie just sold another 50 tickets, please don't kill him, can you fix it, barri? yes, dear, i can, we'll just add 2 chicken tenders , 4 oz. mashed potatoes and 1 oz. gravy, and up the rest of the numbers. frantic call to greenlee, who takes care of me by bringing the extras herself.
during the gig, we run out of brisket, steal 20 pounds of pulled pork from another upcoming gig, pull an extra 10 pounds of cheese cubes from yet another one, and 6 pies from that one too.
so we add 16% to the total original bill for the whole cost .
how much food did we end up selling, and what was our ending price per person? and bonus questions, why did my boss put me through this every year for 11 years, and why do i still do that math for the new company running my old kitchen, lol?
date of event is 10-29, ticket sales begin 10-1 and "end " 10-22. member count is 550, so we start with that number to create a budget, knowing it will change. portions are these( per person)- crudites-4 oz.
dip-2 oz.
cheese cubes/slices-4 oz.
crackers-10 each
mini quiches-2 each
salad mix-3 oz.
dressing( 3 kinds) -1 oz.
tomato wedges-2( there are 12 wedges per tomato)
entree( rolled smoked brisket, each roll is 4 oz) -2
roasted baby red potatoes- 4 oz.
buttered corn-4oz.
dinner rolls- 2 each
butter pats-2 each
now, this is NOT a plated dinner, it's a buffet, and anyone can go back for seconds or more after the initial first serve, we serve out nothing, it's serve yourself. and these are hunters and their wives , so it's an auto add of 10% to your initial numbers. that's your bid, 25 bucks a person for this setup to start. BUT. then dolores decides she wants to add swedish and bbq meatballs and cocktail buns to the after app table, that's 4 meatballs and 2 buns a person.
then charlie remembers the chocolate pie i made him for his birthday, adds that to the after apps too. 6 slices per pie, and 1 oz of whipped cream.
2 weeks later, you get your initial ticket count of 375. we know ernie, he ain't done selling yet, so we add another 10% to the adjusted original number.
a week later , we get " the final " ticket count for ordering, 566. yes, above the bid number. again, we know these people, so we add another 20% to cover overages on all items, then we start prepping.
2 days before the gig, in walks dolores in tears, ernie just sold another 50 tickets, please don't kill him, can you fix it, barri? yes, dear, i can, we'll just add 2 chicken tenders , 4 oz. mashed potatoes and 1 oz. gravy, and up the rest of the numbers. frantic call to greenlee, who takes care of me by bringing the extras herself.
during the gig, we run out of brisket, steal 20 pounds of pulled pork from another upcoming gig, pull an extra 10 pounds of cheese cubes from yet another one, and 6 pies from that one too.
so we add 16% to the total original bill for the whole cost .
how much food did we end up selling, and what was our ending price per person? and bonus questions, why did my boss put me through this every year for 11 years, and why do i still do that math for the new company running my old kitchen, lol?
- oh -
I thought you were going to educate me on how to proportion the buffet to the number of persons, in the Goldilocks amount, so you don't have too much left over, and you don't run out, and have people stampeding for the McD's drive-through near by.
This was a fund-raiser? For a hunting club / gun club?
b #28
I haven't cyber-known you long. But you seem to have a substantial empathic streak. I'm guessing when at a party, good cheer revolves around you. I'm sorry I missed the dinner, my loss I imagine.
ps 375 people, 6 people per pie, that's 60 pies.
Try that in a home oven, and the first few to be baked would have gone moldy before the last one has cooled. You make me glad I keep away from the kitchen. Knowing you were there would stiffen my spine considerable.
I thought you were going to educate me on how to proportion the buffet to the number of persons, in the Goldilocks amount, so you don't have too much left over, and you don't run out, and have people stampeding for the McD's drive-through near by.
This was a fund-raiser? For a hunting club / gun club?
b #28
I haven't cyber-known you long. But you seem to have a substantial empathic streak. I'm guessing when at a party, good cheer revolves around you. I'm sorry I missed the dinner, my loss I imagine.
ps 375 people, 6 people per pie, that's 60 pies.
Try that in a home oven, and the first few to be baked would have gone moldy before the last one has cooled. You make me glad I keep away from the kitchen. Knowing you were there would stiffen my spine considerable.
yes, actually, you have, it's just been a decade or so since we last chatted is all. and i ran a catering kitchen in a convention center when this function happened, and had ...let me think... 3 cafeterias close by, and another 30 or so at air craft plants.
you DID say you wanted the actual math, lol! but the proportions are there, if you look a little closer at the varied amounts of product. ALWAYS add at least 15% unless your client is willing to deal with HIS/HER clients screaming because the food runs out. and then another 10% available, just in case. the goldilocks amount doesn't exist, and the better you know your production managers, the easier it is to project the REAL money involved.
and i owe you an apology for not including real pricing per serving, sorry!
and yes, it's for one of the hunt clubs, there are several, ducks, pheasants, geese, etc, all called unlimited. it is the annual banquets that i worked, their fundraisers are strictly volunteer, last i knew. gotta say, i also bartended for these, made HUGE money and had a blast, they're FUN folks!
What interests me about catering to a banquet crowd that size is bell-curving the probabilities on the buffet selection of each item on the menu. As you suggest, adding 15% here, 10% there, and still I imagine you'd run out now & then.
Gotny anecdote about either the owner (your boss, or your boss's boss) or a government official, such as a Board of Health kitchen inspector?
Gotny anecdote about either the owner (your boss, or your boss's boss) or a government official, such as a Board of Health kitchen inspector?
mark mywords
Active member
broad to broad (AOU) slender to slender (IE)