Opinion
The window for US-China nuclear weapons negotiations is shrinking
Brian Simboli, opinion contributor / Sat, September 20, 2025 at 1:00 PM EDT
At an August
meeting with South Korea’s president, Trump again expressed his vision for drawing down U.S., China and Russia nuclear stockpiles. A few days later, the Chinese foreign ministry
balked at this goal.
Trump
reportedly has been talking to China about the TikTok deal; perhaps this openness to talks can eventually lead to serious denuclearization talks.
As with
Russia, there are many reasons to commence negotiation with China. Given China’s growing nuclear stockpile, the window of opportunity is quickly closing.
The history of nuclear deterrence suggests that entrenchment effects — strategic, economic, political — make significant arms drawdowns extremely difficult. It is, therefore, foresighted and proactive to negotiate now.
China’s foreign ministry
claims that Trump’s goal is “neither reasonable nor realistic.” One reason is that “China’s nuclear capabilities are not on the same scale as those of the U.S.”
While China’s nuclear posture is not currently on the same scale, in 2024, the Defense Department
said China “will have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels.”
Assuming this assessment is correct, China’s trajectory belies its claim about not being involved in an arms race. This gives reason to negotiate with China before the odds of success in doing so diminish further.
At an August meeting with South Korea’s president, Trump again expressed his vision for drawing down U.S., China and Russia nuclear stockpiles. A few days later, the Chinese foreign ministry balked at this goal. Trump reportedly has been talking to China about the TikTok deal; perhaps this...
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