Anthropogenic Global Warming ... how hot is it ?

[Shiftless2]

President Donald Trump's plan to begin "phasing out" the federal agency that responds to disasters after the 2025 hurricane season is likely to put more responsibilities on states to provide services following increasingly frequent and expensive climate disasters, experts said.

Trump plans to phase out FEMA after hurricane season, alarming experts​

President Donald Trump's plan to begin "phasing out" the federal agency that responds to disasters after the 2025 hurricane season is likely to put more responsibilities on states to provide services following increasingly frequent and expensive climate disasters, experts said.

"We want to wean off of FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) and we want to bring it down to the state level," Trump said on Tuesday in an Oval Office appearance with administration officials about preparations for summer wildfires.

Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have repeatedly signalled their desire to overhaul, if not completely eliminate, the 46-year-old Federal Emergency Management Agency. While there has been bipartisan support for reforming the agency, experts say dismantling it completely would ....

https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/trump-plans-to-phase-out-fema-after-hurricane-season-alarming-experts-125061200075_1.html

 

[Shiftless2]

As for the California wildfires, It's not over until it's over - and who knows how long this will drag on

Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara launches investigation into State Farm's handling of wildfire claims​

Urges wildfire survivors to submit formal complaints to the Department to strengthen the investigation and expedite recovery

Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara announced today a formal investigation into State Farm’s handling of thousands of insurance claims from wildfire survivors affected by the Palisades and Eaton wildfires. The California Department of Insurance has initiated a Market Conduct Examination of State Farm General Insurance Company, expanding its ongoing investigation into consumer complaints against the insurer.

"Californians deserve fair and comprehensive treatment from their insurance companies. No one should be left in uncertainty, forced to fight for what they are owed, or face endless delays that often lead consumers to give up," said Commissioner Lara. "While there are national standards for insurance claims handling, they can be vague and inconsistently applied, especially during large-scale, climate-driven disasters. This examination will assess whether State Farm has complied with California's consumer protection and claims handling laws and will help determine if further reforms are needed as natural disasters increasingly disrupt insurance markets across the country."

A Market Conduct Examination is one of the Department's most effective tools, involving a thorough, fact-based review that typically takes several months. The Department is currently at a different stage in the claims process for these wildfires, which allows for a more comprehensive regulatory review for an examination of this magnitude and importance. Insurers are now making payment decisions, enabling the Department to evaluate .....

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It's probably safe to say that the investigation is going to extend to other insurance companies as well

 

[Shiftless2]

Property insurer asking state to allow 31% rate increase when policyholders renew​

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/weather/hurricane/2025/06/19/true-property-insurer-asking-florida-31-percent-rate-increase/84243322007/

Two new property insurers approved to sell in Florida. More coming, regulators say​

Two new property insurers approved to sell in Florida. More coming, regulators say

The office on Friday identified the two new companies in a news release as Incline National Insurance Company, headquartered in Texas, and Florida Insurance and Reinsurance Company, a Florida- domiciled company that Insurance Commissioner Mike Yaworsky said will primarily offer coverage for...

insurancenewsnet.com

 

[Shiftless2]

Dozens dead in Texas after devastating floods slam Hill Country, officials say​

Dozens of people are dead in central Texas in what officials called a "mass casualty event" after devastating flash floods slammed Hill Country, with water rescues taking place along the Guadalupe River. While officials couldn't confirm an exact number of those who remain unaccounted for, they said between 23 and 25 people were still missing from Camp Mystic, a children's summer camp.

At least 27 fatalities have been reported so far, Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said in an email Saturday morning. The dead include 18 adults and 9 children. Six of the adults and one child remain unidentified, Leitha said. Officials have conducted more than

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How extraordinary rainfall caught Texas by surprise​

Meteorologists had cautioned there was potential for flooding across Central Texas in the overnight hours late Thursday and early Friday morning. But there was little indication of just how torrential and unrelenting the downpours would become in the predawn hours, killing at least 27 people, many of them children at camp.

Radar and precipitation data and National Weather Service warnings show the floods were the result of extraordinary atmospheric conditions that sent intense plumes of Gulf of Mexico moisture into parts of Texas long known to be vulnerable to flash flooding, when bursts of heavy rain cause water to rise rapidly.

And unlike a typical summer thunderstorm that can cause quick flooding, this system formed in a way that allowed it to stall, creating deluges that repeatedly poured several inches of rain on the same areas within a matter of hours.

“The flooding damage is catastrophic,” Kerrville Police Officer Jonathan Lamb told The Washington Post. “It’s the worst flood that we’ve ever seen.”

It occurred against the backdrop of rising global temperatures, as surging fossil fuel emissions trigger the greenhouse effect, causing the most intense rainfall to become even more extreme, scientists say. Warmer air is capable of ....

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Elections have consequences. Sad that Texas had to learn this way.

 

[sear]

"Elections have consequences. Sad that Texas had to learn this way." S2 #344

As I was reading #344 that thought crossed my mind, though in my ignorance it seems more like karma than policy cause & effect.

S2, do you have any specific election related Texas policy in mind?

Elections have consequences. Sad that Texas had to learn this way.

Texas had a rough go with commercial power failure, because they'd tried to save a $little by not complying with federal commercial power grid standards.
Something similar with water too?

 

[Shiftless2]

... do you have any specific election related Texas policy in mind?

In 2024, Trump went on to win Texas by a margin of over 1.5 million votes, the second-largest margin of victory for any presidential candidate in Texas history.

And guess who is slashing government services.

As Flood Deaths Rise, Texas Officials Blast Faulty Forecast by DOGE-Gutted National Weather Service​

"Experts warned for months that drastic and sudden cuts at the National Weather Service by Trump could impair their forecasting ability and endanger lives during the storm season," said one critic.​

As catastrophic flooding left scores of people dead and missing in Texas Hill Country and President Donald Trump celebrated signing legislation that will eviscerate every aspect of federal efforts to address the climate emergency, officials in the Lone Star State blasted the National Weather Service—one of many agencies gutted by the Department of Government Efficiency—for issuing faulty forecasts that some observers blamed for the flood's high death toll.

The Associated Press reported Saturday that flooding caused by a powerful storm killed at least 27 people, with dozens more—including as many as 25 girls from a summer camp along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County—missing after fast-moving floodwaters rose 26 feet (8 meters) in less than an hour before dawn on Friday, sweeping away people and pets along with .....

As Flood Deaths Rise, Texas Officials Blast Faulty Forecast by DOGE-Gutted National Weather Service | Common Dreams

"Experts warned for months that drastic and sudden cuts at the National Weather Service by Trump could impair their forecasting ability and endanger lives during the storm season," said one critic.

www.commondreams.org

 

[sear]

"In 2024, Trump went on to win Texas by a margin of over 1.5 million votes, the second-largest margin of victory for any presidential candidate in Texas history." #346

"And guess who is slashing government services." S2
"yep, Trump and Elon killed those girls." ryjkyj

Thank you S2.
That's clarification enough.

Therefore "America First" is MAGA code for - ME FIRST -
And therefore, don't tax ME for government service that might benefit my neighbor, our countrymen?

It's a dysfunctional feedback loop.
The chiselers, the parsimonyists disregard economy of scale, willing to sacrifice a few school girls if it'll save them a few tax $dollars.

It's a little too close to anarchism for my taste ... every man for himself ...
BUT !
It's Texas, and therefore Texans.

 

[Shiftless2]

And don't forget that he's slashing FEMA (said he actually wants to eliminate it) and that body benefits red states more than anything else.

And I stand to be corrected but my understanding is that the money to build Alligator Auschwitz came from FEMA funds.

 

[sear]

"And don't forget that he's slashing FEMA (said he actually wants to eliminate it) and that body benefits red states more than anything else." S2 #348

FEMA: the longest bone of contention in the U.S. body politic. *

"And I stand to be corrected but my understanding is that the money to build Alligator Auschwitz came from FEMA funds." S2

The rational mind may feel flummoxed here.
It's not a cognitive failure.
Trump isn't laying waste to U.S. institutions and traditions for utilitarian benefit.
Instead, it's Trump's way of amassing power.

IMPORTANT NOTE:
Trump's violent insurrection occurred between election day, and inauguration day.
Trump's January 6th extravaganza appears to be Trump's failed attempt to retain the presidency despite Senator Biden's election to the office.
We should be prepared for an additional power-grab despite our Constitution's 22nd Amendment:

ARTICLE #22: Ratified February 27, 1951
SECTION 1. No person shall be elected to the office of President more than twice ...

According to Trump, who claims he won the 2020 election, Trump has already been elected three times.

* fe·mur (fēmər)
n.
1.a. A bone of the leg situated between the pelvis and knee in humans. It is the largest and strongest bone in the body. Also called thighbone.
The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition copyright ©2022 by HarperCollins Publishers. All rights reserved.

 

[sear]

U.S. rocked by four 1-in-1,000-year storms in less than a week​

The regularity of intense storms with a roughly 0.1% chance of happening in any given year is becoming more common with climate change.

U.S. rocked by four 1-in-1,000-year storms in less than a week

Climate change is making severe storms both more common and more intense.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Shiftless2]

Global warming could push insured US hurricane losses to unprecedented highs – MS Amlin​

Average losses could spike across the East Coast, with Florida leading the rise​

By Kenneth Araullo

A new study forecasts that insured losses from US hurricanes could increase by nearly 50% under a 2°C global warming scenario.

Global re/insurer MS Amlin’s research outlines changes in the frequency, strength, and geographic impact of hurricanes across the US East Coast. Areas traditionally considered less exposed to hurricane activity – such as New York and Boston – are expected to see the sharpest relative increases in loss estimates.

The report estimates that insured losses in New York could rise by 64%, with Rhode Island and Massachusetts potentially experiencing increases of over 70% in average annual loss. Florida is expected to face the largest absolute increase, with a projected 44% rise in insured hurricane-related losses.

Warming ocean temperatures are cited as a primary factor, allowing Category 4 and 5 storms with wind speeds over 130 mph to persist longer and reach farther north. In high-loss storm years, the Carolinas could see insured losses rise by 60%, which is approximately three times higher than the projected increases for Texas.

The study also modeled a repeat of .....

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Note that the percentages specifically refer to "insured losses" and not losses in general. As the article points out the frequency and severity of losses will increase much of the increase in cost relates to where people are building - building on the coast for example.

 

[sear]

"Note that the percentages specifically refer to "insured losses" and not losses in general." S2 #351

This may be thinking too far outside the box to seem relevant, none the less, ...

Are we in whole or part simply misperceiving here?

#351 static-models a dynamic. It's premise is: maintain status quo within our current relationship structure.

Obvious relevant example:
As floods become more frequent, continue to inhabit flood-prone areas, and simply fortify insurance to accommodate.

- D U M B ! -

Wouldn't it make more sense to adopt building codes requiring new construction within flood zones to be on Earthen berms exceeding maximum flood height?

Trying to accommodate the full consequence of anthropogenic global warming by fiddling with insurance is preposterous.

 

[Shiftless2]

Trying to accommodate the full consequence of anthropogenic global warming by fiddling with insurance is preposterous.

They're not trying to "fiddle with insurance" - this a reinsurer whose business is providing insurance to insurance companies - all their statement means is that premiums are going to have to increase by "a lot" in order to cover losses in the future.

 

[sear]

They're not trying to "fiddle with insurance" - this a reinsurer whose business is providing insurance to insurance companies - all their statement means is that premiums are going to have to increase by "a lot" in order to cover losses in the future.

Which is how insurers have been accommodating standard variables like $wage / $price inflation for many centuries. [predictable variables in an otherwise static environment]

Anthropogenic climate change is different.

- and -

Though an oversimplification, insurers don't [directly] set local building codes. BUT !!
Until government resolves the issue of periodic controlled burns to avoid the titanic conflagrations that otherwise result if the forests are allowed to collect fuel for decades,
governments may have to sidestep themselves on the controlled burn issue and institute rational fire codes so forest-dwelling people stop building homes out of firewood.

note:
Asphalt Shingles are commonplace. BUT !

asphalt​

noun​

ˈas-ˌfȯlt :
a dark bituminous substance that is found in natural beds and is also obtained as a residue in petroleum refining and that consists chiefly of hydrocarbons

Asphalt is an imprudent choice for roofing material in environments where forest fire embers can rain down, and spread wildfire even across forest fire-breaks.
They don't have to -invent- steel roofing. It's already on the market.

 

[Shiftless2]

They don't have to -invent- steel roofing. It's already on the market.

And it's one thing to insist on it's use in new construction but it's impractical (impossible?) to require all existing buildings to redo their roofs.

 

[Shiftless2]

$10 Billion Class Action Lawsuit Filed for the Palisades Fire by Lawyers for Justice, PC Against Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy, California State Parks, California Natural Resources Agency, Mountains Recreation & Conservation Authority, City of Los Angeles, and Los Angeles Department of Water and Power​

$10 Billion Class Action Lawsuit Filed for the Palisades Fire by Lawyers for Justice, PC Against Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy, California State Parks, California Natural Resources Agency, Mountains Recreation & Conservation Authority, City of L

/PRNewswire/ -- A class action lawsuit has been filed against six government entities, seeking more than $10 billion in monetary damages, as well as...

www.prnewswire.com

 

[Shiftless2]

Aon estimates global insured catastrophe losses at $100bn for H1 2025​

Insured losses from catastrophe events across the globe in the first half of 2025 increased to at least $100 billion, which marks the second highest recorded after 2011’s $140 billion, with the increase heavily driven by the California wildfires and severe convective storm (SCS) activity in the US, according to broker Aon.

The re/insurance broking group’s Catastrophe Insight team has published its Global Catastrophe Recap Report for the first half 2025, which examines loss activity ....

Aon estimates global insured catastrophe losses at $100bn for H1 2025 - Artemis.bm

Insured losses from catastrophe events across the globe in the first half of 2025 increased to at least $100 billion, which marks the second highest

www.artemis.bm

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------​

Based on past experience I'd be very surprised if the final answer isn't higher when the dust settles.

From the article:

With H1’25 global insured losses sitting at $100 billion, this is up from H1’24’s $71 billion, and significantly above the 21st-century average of $41 billion.

According to the broker, over 90% of insured losses in the opening six months of 2025 occurred in the US, primarily driven by wildfires and SCS.

 

[Shiftless2]

America faces chronic climate change weather emergencies and still leaves its 911 emergency system up to the states​

When an emergency happens in Collier County, Florida, the 911 calls go to one of the most high-tech communications centers in the U.S., where callers can send text and video from the scene to dispatchers.

Moving to what’s known as an NG911 — or Next Generation 911 — system is a journey Sheriff Kevin Rambosk and Bob Finney, the county’s director of communication, have been on for much of the past decade.

It’s a long way from Feb. 16, 1968, when Alabama’s then-House Speaker Rankin Fite made the nation’s very first 911 call in Haleyville, Alabama, on a bright red, rotary-style landline telephone. That ceremonial call came just 35 days after AT&T announced plans to use 911 as a nationwide emergency number.

Today, most calls to 911 originate with cellphones, with dispatchers in upgraded centers using geo tracking to get accurate ....

America faces chronic climate change weather emergencies and still leaves its 911 emergency system up to the states

There is no federal oversight or federal funding for 911, and individual cities, counties, and states are responsible for operating their own 911 call centers.

fortune.com

 

[sear]

"And it's one thing to insist on it's use in new construction but it's impractical (impossible?) to require all existing buildings to redo their roofs." #355

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single roof.

I haven't just invented the notion of updating standards. There are countless precedents for it.
The notion that we'd exclude updating standards for a catastrophe that is literally global in scope is absurd.


#358

The U.S. faces chronic climate change weather emergencies and still leaves its 911 emergency system up to the states​

which may lower federal costs. But it both elevates the national $burden, and impairs coordination of remaining resources.

 

[Shiftless2]

A dangerous, long-duration heat wave will impact the Southeast, Mid-South, and Midwest through late July. Extreme heat, high humidity, and little overnight relief pose serious health risks. Stay cool, hydrated, and informed:

http://weather.gov/safety/heat