World War III: America’s Decaying Hegemony, Losing Ground to the Axis of Autocracies: Russia, China, North Korea & Iran

[titan]

Has World War III Already Begun?

An axis of autocracies led by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is challenging the democratic world order​

As Syrian rebels approached Damascus last weekend, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Moscow’s main Arab ally, as a minor episode in a planet-wide struggle.

The West, Lavrov said, clings to America’s decaying hegemony but is inexorably losing ground to the “free world”—his Orwellian term for the axis of autocracies led by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

https://www.wsj.com/world/has-world-war-iii-already-begun-16fb94c9?mod=hp_featst_pos3

Russia packs up military assets in Syria; future of bases unclear​

By Adam Taylor
and
Evan Hill
Russia is dismantling equipment at an air base in Syria and loading it into cargo planes after the ouster of longtime Moscow client Bashar al-Assad, images show.
Captured by Maxar on Friday morning, the images reveal two An-124 cargo planes at Russia’s Hmeimim airfield with their nose cones opened to receive equipment, the commercial firm said.
Given the volume of Russian materiel in the country, analysts said, a full pullout would take some time.
“It’s clear that a withdrawal is now underway,” said Dara Massicot, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But “it’s unclear if they will fully evacuate or partially draw down at present.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/13/russia-syria-bases-tartus-hmeimim/?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqDwgAKgcICjCO1JQKMLfRdDDpmbMD&utm_content=rundown&gaa_at=la&gaa_n=AVINqTy8mUThaQcZrDJvcvoAuXqY1eK2WuHtucnbbWqhU1LVGBTNFea_nCGFRRR0kJPlbebfVWC3NQ%3D%3D&gaa_ts=675d55bc&gaa_sig=HlI2O98Y_4b0mZId-ugXIxmvHQobaRBU8Zs2-xmy5kuF8dMNp46_BbCJTuT0Qn42iRriyZ4p79K6B9mTAoAE4Q%3D%3D

Will President Trump leave the U.S., the world as well off as it is when his second term begins?

 

[sear]

Has World War III Already Begun?

An axis of autocracies led by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is challenging the democratic world order WSJ #1​

What a refreshing yuletide world-view you offer us t #1.

Not quite sure what you're suggesting. The battle lines are drawn, & it's a matter of time before things go nuclear?
Or that this is the way WWIII will go, low level harassment at (South China) sea, cyber-hacking, election interference, etc.?

Will President Trump leave the U.S., the world as well off as it is when his second term begins? t #1

... if we live that long ?

In the U.S. the "adults in the room" can view Trump as an eccentric. Problem is a drunken gunman's aim may be degraded. But his bullets no less lethal. How Trump is viewed by other world leaders, potentially far more consequential.
For better or worse the U.S. electorate has tossed this drunkard the keys. The next four years likely to be a bumpy ride.

“I'm gunna be workin' for you. I'm not gunna have time to go play golf.” GOP pres. candidate Trump “8/2/16”

 

[sear]

t #1

A PS that may interest you t #1:

There's been live-fire opposition to Syria's dictator Assad for years. BUT:
al Assad's Damascus had help from nefarious others including Tehran, and Moscow.
So why the sudden Syrian collapse?

There are indications Israel's intensive War depleted Tehran's ability to support al Assad.
And Putin's floundering in Ukraine reduced Russia's support to al Assad to below viability.

The result, without substantial external support, the Syrian autocrat was unable to defend himself.

And now al Assad is reportedly in Russia.

What Assad has left behind is tantamount to a smoldering crater, rubble.

Yet there is joy & optimism even in Syrian neighborhoods without commercial electric power, running water, or conventional municipal services.

The survivors of Syria's al Assad regime have an enormous task before them. Pivotal to that objective, the form of governance that replaces al Assad,
which may either catalyze benevolent growth, or out of the frying pan into the fire.

- stay tuned -

Merry Christmas

seasonally related note:

Romania's General Secretary Nicolae Ceausescu was separated from his palace guard by the People of Romania,
tried & convicted of genocide
and executed Dec. 25, 1989 Christmas day.

 

[sear]

China directs largest military build-up since 1930s Nazi Germany, expert warns, citing Pentagon report​

By Danielle Wallace Fox News / December 29, 2024 9:44am EST
China is conducting the largest military build-up seen since that of Nazi Germany during the 1930s, one expert warns, after a new Department of Defense report detailed Beijing's operations including bolstering weapons and psychological warfare.

In a piece for The Federalist, Chuck DeVore, chief national initiatives officer at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, referenced the Pentagon's annual report to Congress and warned that the United States has spent $5.4 trillion on its war on terror and futile nation building while the Chinese threat has grown. He urged that Congress get on board with the incoming Trump administration to reallocate resources within the Pentagon to better prioritize naval strength, nuclear deterrence, missile defense, and logistics.

"They're massively building up their nuclear arsenal. We expect it to expand to at least 1,000 warheads by 2030, only five years from now. Probably going to be bigger than that," DeVore said Sunday. "The Chinese Navy, not by tonnage, but by numbers is now larger than the U.S. Navy. China has something like 250 times the ship building capacity that America does."

China directs largest military build-up since 1930s Nazi Germany, expert warns, citing Pentagon report

Defense Department report reveals China's rapidly growing weapons arsenal and "psychological warfare" operation ahead of new Trump presidency.

www.foxnews.com

Without military capability neither China nor the U.S. can catalyze international tensions
the way they can with complete, up-to-date military arsenals and capabilities.

Unfortunately it's likely to be in China as it has been in the U.S. for generations.
Law makers sincerely believing the greatest utility of a capable military is not in winning war, but deterring war.
The problem: peace-makers may support a capable military. But war hawks chomp at the bit to USE that capable military.
So it has been in the U.S.
Is it likely to be otherwise in China?

 

[titan]

Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day

Kazakhstan plane crash survivors say they heard bangs before aircraft went down, Putin issues statement

Survivors of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day say they heard at least one loud bang before the aircraft crashed.

www.foxnews.com

Recently, an Embraer 190 Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft en route from Baku to Grozny crashed in Kazakhstan, allegedly shot down by Russian air defense systems. Onboard were 62 passengers and 5 crew members, 28 of whom survived. This is yet another tragedy that raises significant questions about the safety of civil aviation, particularly in the context of armed conflicts.
As someone who led investigative teams from Ukraine for the downing of flights MH17 and PS752, I cannot help but note certain similarities: the nature of the damage, the confusion in the narratives during the initial days. However, it is equally important to focus on a number of significant aspects.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate, Ukrainian drones can currently penetrate up to 2,000 kilometers into Russian territory, targeting numerous military bases deemed legitimate objectives. Despite this, Russian airspace remains open to civil aviation. This paradoxical situation poses a serious risk to passengers, given the potential for errors or incidents involving air defense systems.
Currently, Russia has introduced temporary flight restrictions in the cities of Sochi, Kazan, Samara, Grozny, and Makhachkala. However, this is not enough.
Some Azerbaijani politicians and state media have already called on Russia to acknowledge that the aircraft was shot down by its air defense systems and to issue an apology in accordance with the Chicago Convention. And from this, we can already draw certain conclusions about Azerbaijan's position. At the same time, they compare this tragedy to the November 9, 2020, incident when Azerbaijan mistakenly shot down a Russian Mi-24 military helicopter, acknowledged it, apologized, and paid compensation. However, this comparison is inappropriate: that case involved a military aircraft in an active combat zone, whereas the current incident concerns a civilian aircraft.

International practices​

We do not see the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) recommending the closure of Russian airspace, even though the risks to civil aviation are evident. At present, the organization could recommend that Russia impose restrictions and issue relevant NOTAMs (Notices to Air Missions) to prevent a recurrence of such tragedies. Moreover, ICAO could theoretically appeal to the UN General Assembly with a demand to close Russian airspace. While Russia would likely veto such a move at the UN Security Council level, this step would draw the international community's attention to the issue.

The airspace over Russia must be closed

Recently, an Embraer 190 Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft en route from Baku to Grozny crashed in Kazakhstan, allegedly shot down by Russian air defense systems. Onboard were 62 passengers and 5 crew members, 28 of whom survived. This is yet another tragedy that raises significant questions about...

www.pravda.com.ua

Nations opposing Russia's war in Ukraine may not be able to control air traffic in Russian airspace. But they can apply penalty against any flight of Russian origin that lands in their own territory.
Whether that would apply enough pressure to persuade Putin to reconsider his Ukraine policy is up to Putin. But Russia has been sanctioned since Russia invaded Crimea.
Russia has no authority to force nations other than Russia to allow their air traffic into Russia.

 

[sear]

"Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day" FOX #5

Grim.
Early indications the airliner took shrapnel from Russian air defenses? The aircraft continued to fly, but not fully under the control of the pilot?

"We do not see the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) recommending the closure of Russian airspace, even though the risks to civil aviation are evident." Pravda

Is there a paradoxical risk here t #5?
Russia is already isolated, & has responded with war.
Tightening the noose by the West progressively more may be intended to punish, but may instead result in even more of the types of aggression we'd like to prevent.

OTO, even if Putin considers airliners expendable, we cannot.

messy