Why would Russia sabotage its best source of hard currency with Ukraine war downturn cash need?

Rampage

Rampage

Member
"It remained far from clear who might be behind the leaks or any foul play, if proven, on the Nord Stream pipelines that Russia and European partners spent billions of dollars building.

Gazprom.JPG

Seismologists in Denmark and Sweden said they had registered two powerful blasts on Monday in the vicinity of the leaks and the explosions were in the water, not under the seabed."

source: https://www.reuters.com/business/en...ian-undersea-gas-pipelines-europe-2022-09-27/

Unclear?
The list of those with the capability to synchronize such double attack is a short list.
Russia's weak economy generally needs the revenue natural gas sales produce. But Russia's war in Ukraine is not going well, intensifying Russia's need for revenue.

Russia's economic problems are one issue. The environment is another. Natural gas can function as a greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere.

"Neither pipeline was in operation, but both contained natural gas - which is largely composed of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that is the second biggest cause of climate change after CO2.
A "conservative estimate" based on available data suggests the leaks together were releasing more than 500 metric tons of methane per hour when first breached, with the pressure and flow rate decreasing over time, said Jean-Francois Gauthier, vice president of measurements at the commercial methane-measuring satellite firm GHGSat."

www.reuters.com

Analysis: Nord Stream gas leaks raise climate fears, but impact hard to quantify

Unexplained leaks in two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea are spewing out greenhouse gas emissions, raising fears that the disruption could cause a climate calamity - although to what extent is still unclear.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Who caused the leaks?
The explosions Reuters mentioned above tell part of the story. Also worth noting, the sites of each strike is outside territorial water. Initial suspicion is that mines may have been laid by a non-navy vessel. Then the mines were detonated remotely after the vessel that placed them escaped detection.
 
well its not all that long ago that America accused Iran of sabotaging one of the oil tankers of one of the few nations that actually trade in Iranian oil

www.express.co.uk

Oil tanker attack: US release video 'proving' Iran involvement – WATCH

SHOCKING footage allegedly shows an Iranian patrol boat approaching the Japanese-owned oil tanker Kokura Courageous after it was attacked in the Gulf of Oman.
www.express.co.uk www.express.co.uk

My view is that if something doesnt make sense it might not be truthful
 
mark mywords said:
My view is that if something doesnt make sense it might not be truthful
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A sensibly cautious view, cautiously expressed. But in this case, in this context, I think it's got Putin's fingerprints on it. Putin is desperate about losing in Ukraine. He's grasping at straws. Today's news reported by Politico and others:

Americans urged to leave Russia ‘immediately,’ U.S. Embassy warns FOX 5 DC

That suggests the State Department has information ("intelligence") potentially as alarming as U.S. citizens with dual Russian citizenship may be at risk of being drafted into fighting for Russia in Ukraine.
It seems Putin is grasping at straws. Why he'd sabotage his own billion dollar pipeline is anyone's guess. But the fact that it was two nearly simultaneous strikes not one clearly suggests it wasn't an accident. And the strikes being in international waters further reduces the likelihood of the perpetrator wanting to get caught.

"Limited" nuclear war seems a fantasy, despite the fact that's the only kind there's ever been. Things are different now. The U.S. nuked Japan not for conquest, but to jolt Japan back to civilization after Pearl Harbor, and bloody terror in the Pacific. Putin's motives are not so noble. The calm before the storm.
 
mm #2
Alright. But if not Putin, who? Who else on Earth has the capability to do this, plus the motive to do it this way, at this time?

R #3
I was kind of lulled into little worry about Vlad crossing the nuclear line. I was that partly because of my own personal sense of responsibility, projected onto others. But also because I'm not seeing much of a tizzy among world leaders about it. But it seems the Pentagon is keeping a sharp eye on Putin now. Pentagon contingency planners are probably drawing up plans right now. - yikes -
 
I haven't read any reports about U.S. military forces being on alert. Maybe U.S. and NATO are downplaying it in an effort to avoid making matters worse.
 
R #1,

I found this @WSJ.

NATO Formally Blames Sabotage for Nord Stream Pipeline Damage​

Military alliance says it would be prepared to defend its infrastructure from attacks, in a significant ratcheting up of tensions between Russia and the West ​

NATO said that a series of leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Europe were the result of acts of sabotage and that attacks on its members’ infrastructure would be met with a collective response from the military alliance.
The statement, from the North Atlantic Council, the decision-making body of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, didn’t provide details or evidence. It also noted that the damage to the pipelines occurred in international waters. But it marks the first time the alliance has formally warned that it would deter and defend against attacks on its members’ critical infrastructure following the now four documented leaks in the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines.
www.wsj.com

NATO Formally Blames Sabotage for Nord Stream Pipeline Damage

The military alliance said it would be prepared to defend its infrastructure from attacks, in a ratcheting up of tensions between Russia and the West
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

Still not clear to me why Russia would do this. We don't KNOW it was done by Russia, but who else? Was it merely a Putin temper tantrum? An expression of his frustration?

And the obvious and as yet unanswered question: just what does the North Atlantic Council have in mind? What, when, how, and where?
 
Still not clear to me why Russia would do this
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the only country that has nothing to gain by doing this is Germany!
Admittedly some countries have more to gain than others and Russia is well down the list of countries with something to gain
 
mm #7
You've lost me here.
Any other nation that might sell Germany LNG would stand to benefit, if they have not already reached their export capacity. I don't know who. The U.S.? Could OPEC help Germany?

The telltales here are:
- It's connected to Russia (the pipe attaches to the planet there)
- The timing, Putin's war in Ukraine has gone from bad to much worse
- The simultaneity of the two strikes. It takes resources to coordinate two such strikes.
- The location: international waters. That means reduced risk of act of war within sovereign territory (particularly a sovereign member of NATO).
- The technological difficulty. How many on Earth are capable of it? The U.S., Russia, Jacques Cousteau?
Despite all that, not clear to me what perceived gain. Largest practical gain? Taking public attention away from the fracas Putin has sparked over Russian military conscription. The U.S. lost the war in Vietnam not in military combat outside Da Nang, but in protest in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, ... . Putin's got a tiger by the tail. But Putin is running out of feet to shoot himself in the.

[I ended that sentence with the definite article "the" to avoid ending it with a preposition. Whose the English expert now ?!]
 
The telltales here are:
- It's connected to Russia (the pipe attaches to the planet there)
- The timing, Putin's war in Ukraine has gone from bad to much worse
- The simultaneity of the two strikes. It takes resources to coordinate two such strikes.
- The location: international waters. That means reduced risk of act of war within sovereign territory (particularly a sovereign member of NATO).
- The technological difficulty. How many on Earth are capable of it? The U.S., Russia, Jacques Cousteau?
Click to expand...

One end of it is in Russia so it must be Russia that sabotaged it? Equally the other end is in /Germany so it must have been the Germans!
The leaks are close to Sweden so it might have been the Swedes!
Other leaks have now been found close to Denmark...the Danes did it?

Russia's war is going bad so Russia effectively attacks itself?

Im not sure that the now four attacks were "simultaneous" although three of them were discovered on the same day

I dont think that technically it would have posed any difficulty to any nation with access to submarines

Cui bono?
who benefits from this as I outlined above the only country that doesnt benefit is Germany, when the war is eventually resolved Russia will be unable to turn on the gas on which Germany is so reliant for every one else the benefit is that Russia will be unable to restart its economy once sanctions are over. would would of course be super good for the US
Russias only benefit is as some sort of "proof of concept" we can attack under sea pipelines so can attack under sea cables (either power or telephony) at that is super tenuous why would Russia advertise that? (OK Putin has done some weird stuff)
 
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mm #9
"Telltale" (the word I used) and conviction by duly constituted international court of law producing a verdict that's an absolute scientific certitude are two different things.
Please note: there are numerous other pipelines on the planet. Which of them has been similarly sabotaged undersea since Russia invaded Ukraine?
I never said it was absolute incontrovertible proof of Russian guilt. But it doesn't help remove Russia from the list of suspects, DESPITE Russia's motive being somewhat unclear at this point.
"it must have been the Germans!" mm
Click to expand...
To what self-gain?
Does Germany have the technological capability to do this? Two near simultaneous under sea explosions?
"the only country that has nothing to gain by doing this is Germany!" mm #7
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Paraguay? Burkina Faso? It's a slim play. But one thing Germany might have to gain, if it's ruled out using Russian fuel, would be to cite the sabotage to increase the validity of Germany's need, as a basis for negotiating with alternate suppliers. I'm NOT suggesting that Germany sabotaged the pipelines. I'm refuting your blanket claim that "the only country that has nothing to gain by doing this is Germany!" mm #7
"Russia's war is going bad so Russia effectively attacks itself?" mm #9
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Insane!
Right?
Any more insane than invading Ukraine? Or choosing to continue Cold War estrangement from the prosperous West, instead of ceasing contrived hostilities and joining in the prosperity, the way Western former Soviet satellites have?
"Im not sure that the now four attacks were "simultaneous" although three of them were discovered on the same day" mm #9
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Right.
The scientific definition of simultaneous, and the geo-political / military definition differ. The mode of destruction, under sea, probably remote detonated explosive, within one news cycle; that would seem to reduce the likelihood of coincident spontaneous failure.
"I dont think that technically it would have posed any difficulty to any nation with access to submarines" mm #9
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a) How many nations have submarines?
b) Of them, how many nations have submarines capable of:
- locating the pipeline
- placing a charge powerful enough to produce the desired destructive affect?
It's probably vastly more difficult, to impossible to accomplish this without a submarine. BUT !! Not every submarine can do this unobtrusively. A bathysphere for obvious example, technically a submarine. But the flat-panel computer display screen retired the bathysphere. We use robots now. CERTAINLY a robot might have done this. But how many on Earth have a robot capable of handling such a task?
ONE sub might have done this, particularly if the first charge could have been placed, but not detonated until after the second charge was emplaced and ready for detonation.
Another possibility, more than one sub was used. Too soon to know at this point.
"Cui bono?" mm #9
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Correct.
BUT !!
There is no absolute rule on that. Example: a crook attempted a "smash & grab", removed a manhole cover from the sidewalk, used it to smash a jewelry store window, crammed his pockets full of expensive jewelry, and then in his zeal to flee fell into and became stuck in the manhole he'd just uncovered. Did he really believe going to prison was his best option?
I'm not dismissing the sanity test. As a general rule I consider it obligatory, if not decisive. BUT !! Not much ordinary about this. And Putin's probably mad (not likely to honestly pass a scientifically administered sanity test).
"Russias only benefit is as some sort of "proof of concept" we can attack under sea pipelines so can attack under sea cables (either power or telephony) at that is super tenuous why would Russia advertise that?" mm #9
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That had not occurred to me. I'm not agreeing. But I acknowledge, it might have been intended as a Russian warning:
- I'm crazy enough to blow up my own stuff
- If I can do this to a pipeline, imagine what I could do to under sea communications cables, etc.
I'm not sure how high up the likelihood scale that item on the possibilities list belongs. BUT !! You've added it to the list, and in my opinion, wisely so.
 
mark, the process of elimination has already begun. U.S. intelligence is unquestionably burning the midnight oil on this one. You're right to ask who benefits. Who benefits from any vandalism? It seems sear's counterpoint is it's a short route to error to attribute rational planning to irrational actors. That doesn't yet rule out rational motive. They're also still under consideration.
 
Russia (and before that the USSR) has never had a "world class" military they have a big military but it is and was always ill trained and under resourced. To say that Russia has a world class military is reminiscent of the claims made about the Iraqi republican guard
Russia (USSR) got their ass kicked by a bunch of tribesmen in Afghanistan
and again in Georgia
But to call this a war against Ukraine is a little dishonest, its certainly a war IN Ukraine but without the money, weapons and information being supplied to Ukraine by NATO et al things would not be going the way that they are now.

Putin (again) has shown himself to be no military strategist he gave Ukraine (and NATO) weeks of warning of his intention allowing Ukraine to gather armaments from around the globe and organise its defence.

Russia even with its under resourced and under trained army should have crushed Ukraine like an ant but instead they first chose to stir up the ant nest and consequently are now getting bitten
 
Thanks m #14.
Perhaps my use of the word "ostensible" understated Russia's military deficiencies.
Since day #one of Russia's invasion reports have featured indications corroborating your clarification. One that comes to mind: Russia's invading forces packed less combat gear so those troops could wear the dress uniforms they brought with them, to march in the victory parade once their quick and inevitable victory was complete.
"Russia even with its under resourced and under trained army should have crushed Ukraine like an ant but instead they first chose to stir up the ant nest and consequently are now getting bitten" m #14
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I appreciate that not merely for its factual fidelity, but also for the versatility of your persuasive entomological metaphor.

My belief, right or wrong, is that on Friday September 30, 2022 Russia's military commander Vladimir Putin is desperately, frantically trying to slap a Potemkin Village appearance of Russian victory on his ill-chosen war with Ukraine.
So why did I use the term "world-class military" at all? That's the flavor of Kool-aid Russian military command has apparently been swilling, not only deluding themselves into believing Ukraine would be nearly as easy and painless a conquest as Crimea, but impressing the same delusion on their entire organization from the boots on the ground, all the way up to Putin. Such bias confirmation is a cinch. What army on Earth wishes to believe they're poorly equipped, poorly trained, & poorly disciplined?
"Russia (and before that the USSR) has never had a "world class" military they have a big military but it is and was always ill trained and under resourced. To say that Russia has a world class military is reminiscent of the claims made about the Iraqi republican guard" m #14
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That's a valid comparison, with one important difference. Russia is on offense. Iraq was on defense, when the Bushies invaded.
"Russia (USSR) got their ass kicked by a bunch of tribesmen in Afghanistan
and again in Georgia" m #14
Click to expand...
And the U.S. in the Nams.

You imply that's a simple military competence competition. In so doing you obfuscate the home team advantage, where indeed "tribesmen" can vanquish seemingly superior military invaders. The American Revolution ably demonstrated that.

"When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains"
(from the poem: The Young British Soldier by Rudyard Kipling)
"But to call this a war against Ukraine is a little dishonest, its certainly a war IN Ukraine but without the money, weapons and information being supplied to Ukraine by NATO et al things would not be going the way that they are now." m #14
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Some may get the impression there's a substantial charitable component to non-Ukraine contributors to Ukraine's war effort.
The reality is Putin's Ukraine adventure is a 3rd millennium test, contest: autocracy vs democracy. And the freedom-loving Peoples of the world each have a personal interest in strangling this Russian autocratic baby in the Ukrainian crib. If it doesn't stop here, it doesn't stop.
"Putin (again) has shown himself to be no military strategist he gave Ukraine (and NATO) weeks of warning of his intention allowing Ukraine to gather armaments from around the globe and organise its defence." m #14
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I firmly believe Putin believed Ukraine would be easy, possibly based on his spectacularly easy Crimea victory. It's a conspicuous intelligence failure, possibly not uncommon for an autocrat that has surrounded himself with "yes-men".
 
mark mywords said:
Russia (and before that the USSR) has never had a "world class" military
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It may depend on how you score it. I read an account of Napoleon battling his way to Moscow. When he arrived he demanded Russian surrender. They laughed at him, and turned him out. And just as it had been for Napoleon's forces on their march to Moscow, being picked off by snipers etc., same deal on their retreat. Maybe that's part of the "home team advantage" sear mentioned. You're right about red coats style ritualized combat. Asymmetric warfare invalidates that standard of comparison.
 
See this yet Rampage?

Sirens sound across Ukraine as Russia strikes cities again; Kyiv asks allies for air defense weapons
Air raid sirens are sounding out across multiple regions in Ukraine again on Tuesday with the emergency services warning of more Russian strikes, a day after a series of Russian attacks left at least 19 people dead and over 100 injured.
Ukrainian officials reported that energy infrastructure in the western city of Lviv had been hit earlier, while the city of Zaporizhzhia in the south was also targeted this morning.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address Monday that Ukraine will not be intimidated by the strikes that took place Monday and which targeted various regions including the capital Kyiv. Urgent work was being done to repair and restore power supplies damaged during the strikes, he added.
The multiple attacks by Russia came several days after a blast partially destroyed the Kerch Bridge that links the Russian mainland to Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014.
Kyiv has not said whether it was responsible for the attack on the bridge, although the blast was widely seen as humiliating for Moscow and President Vladimir Putin.

www.cnbc.com

Sirens sound across Ukraine as Russia strikes cities again; Kyiv asks allies for air defense weapons

Ukraine is dusting itself off after a series of Russian attacks across the country which left at least 14 people dead and 97 injured.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Russia doesn't need a real reason to start a fight with NATO. Is there time to deploy air defense to Ukraine, and enough time to train Ukraine troops to operate the defense? Or is the risk increasing of NATO troop involvement?
 
MoneyWatch U.S. airport websites knocked offline in apparent pro-Russia hacking attack
An apparently coordinated denial-of-service attack organized by pro-Russia hackers rendered the websites of some major U.S. airports unreachable early Monday, though officials said flights were not affected.
The attacks — in which participants flood targets with junk data — were orchestrated by a shadowy group that calls itself Killnet. On the eve of the attacks the group published a target list on its Telegram channel.
While highly visible and aimed at maximum psychological impact, DDoS attacks are mostly a noisy nuisance, different from hacking that involves breaking into networks and can do serious damage.

www.cbsnews.com

U.S. airport websites knocked offline in apparent pro-Russia hacking attack

The websites for some major U.S. airports appear to be recovering after being knocked offline by hackers.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com

No serious damage in this kind of attack. Is Russia reserving more severe action, if the U.S. takes more serious action in Ukraine? Or is Russia exhausting its remaining options in hope of winning war in Ukraine?
 
They are out of options; and they don't want to do more serious attacks, because just like with physical weaponry, our offensive cyber capabilities are WAY greater than theirs. USA could bring russia to a grinding halt, the whole country. It would be an act of war of course, which is why russia doesn't want significant escalation.
 
t-man #17 & #18
Thanks for burning the mid-day oil.

Mr. D #19
Ooohhhhhh !!!
If I'd had ten guesses, I still wouldn't have gotten it.

I'm still not sure what I was wrongest about. Is Russia more Internetty than I thought? Or are U.S. hack options so robust that ... boom?
Not sure you'd remember that I'd remember Mr. D. I'm sincerely not trying to give you the creeps here. But many years ago iirc you endorsed Kaspersky anti-malware software. Carried big weight with me. I wouldn't have known without any guidance on it.
I generally figured there are smart people in Russia that figure out hack stuff.

Well looky here, some smart people in the U.S. too.
I still can't imagine what we'd do. Force vodka production and potato harvesting to a screeching halt? Certainly that must seem terribly derisive, gratuitously insulting. It's mostly not. Just simple unadorned pig ignorance on my part. What does Russia have on the Internet the U.S. could perdiddle with?

Live & learn. Thanks much t & Mr. D.
 
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