NATO Expansion: Finland and Sweden, Putin pouts

[Rampage]

Finland’s president and prime minister, Sauli Niinistö and Sanna Marin, declared on Thursday that their country must apply to join without delay. Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats, long split over the issue, are now expected to opt for membership on Sunday. In Finland, support for Nato membership had never risen above 30% since the end of the cold war, and often fell below 20%. It currently stands at 76%. In Sweden, where non-alignment (preceded by neutrality) has been more ideological, rather than pragmatic, support has also surged: more than 57% of people now support membership.

Both countries are receiving a warm welcome. Their membership would increase Nato’s ability to defend the Baltic. In reality, they are already close partners, taking part in exercises and sharing intelligence with the alliance. But entry would formally bind them to the common security guarantee set out in article 5 of the treaty, stating that an attack on any member is an attack on all, and committing members to defend each other.

Nato expansion has doubtless contributed to Mr Putin’s paranoid mindset. He sees the organisation as little more than an expression of US power. But it is primarily Russian aggression that has driven expansion, not vice versa.

The Guardian view on expanding Nato: Putin has only himself to blame | Editorial

Editorial: Support for membership in Finland and Sweden shows the Russian president’s assault on Ukraine has only strengthened the alliance

www.theguardian.com

The Guardian states it clearly. Russia invaded Ukraine. After that Finland and Sweden relinquish their neutrality to choose the side they think is safer.

The Guardian said: "Nato expansion has doubtless contributed to Mr Putin’s paranoid mindset. He sees the organisation as little more than an expression of US power."

But NATO is primarily a defensive alliance. An attack on any NATO member nation is considered an attack on all NATO member nations. Putin has only himself to blame for this.

 

[titan]

Rampage,

As you know NATO expansion fuels Russia's excuse making justifications for military aggressions of its own. Do you think Finland & Sweden joining NATO would make NATO and EU nations safer? Or perhaps less safe? Today's news -

Finland, Sweden apply to join NATO amid Turkish objections​

By Robin Emmott and Nevzat Devranoglu May 18, 2022

• Application submitted at NATO headquarters
• Move seen redrawing geopolitical map of Europe
• Non-aligned for decades, Ukraine war caused policy upheaval
• Countries seeking to resolve Turkish objections to NATO bids

BRUSSELS/ANKARA, May 18 (Reuters) - Finland and Sweden formally applied to join the NATO alliance on Wednesday, a decision spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but face objections from Turkey to an accession process that is expected to take only a few weeks.
Neutral throughout the Cold War, Sweden's and Finland's decision to join NATO is one of the most significant changes in Europe's security architecture in decades, not least because Finland shares a 1,300-km (810-mile) border with Russia.

It also reflects a shift in public opinion in the Nordic region since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
"This is a historic moment which we must seize," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a short ceremony at NATO headquarters in which the Swedish and Finnish ambassadors to the alliance handed over their application letters, each in a white folder embossed with their national flag.
"I warmly welcome requests by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. You are our closest partners, and your membership in NATO will increase our shared security," Stoltenberg said. The alliance believes the accession of Finland and Sweden will hugely strengthen it in the Baltic Sea.

Finland, Sweden apply to join NATO amid Turkish objections

Finland and Sweden formally applied to join the NATO alliance on Wednesday, a decision spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but face objections from Turkey to an accession process that is expected to take only a few weeks.

www.reuters.com

This headline mentions amid Turkish objections
That's not merely a matter of leaving one NATO member dissatisfied. Accepting new applicants for full NATO membership reportedly requires 100% agreement among all current NATO member nations.
This means Turkey may potentially veto, effectively prevent Finland and Sweden from joining NATO. Will Turkey's President Erdogan block this NATO expansion? Should he?

Member countries

www.nato.int

 

[Rampage]

Erdogon's position might seem flaky to the rest of NATO. But it seems Erdogon's position is more realistic than Putin's.

If Turkey tries to block Finland or Sweden joining NATO, what should the rest of NATO do about it, if anything?

NATO could allow Turkey to exclude Finland & Sweden. Or NATO could modify the rule so that NATO membership additions needn't require 100% current NATO member agreement. That's risky.
Another option might be to drop Turkey, and accept Finland & Sweden membership. Perhaps even the threat to do that might render Turkey more amenable.

There's more involved than merely shaking hands around a conference table. Committing to NATO means potentially joining military forces on the battle field. And if there's less than 100% agreement there, consequences could be potentially disastrous. Does Biden have the leadership skills to see this through successfully?

 

[Wolf]

Do you think Finland & Sweden joining NATO would make NATO and EU nations safer? Or perhaps less safe? Today's news -titan
IMHO what we are dealing with is not so much a question of safety as to N.A.T.O or in fact Europe in general, what we are facing is a Leader who because during his 20 odd years in power, totally convinced he can "re-build" the U.S.S.R. in what he see's as it's lost power.
His "Invasion" of Ukraine, was again I.M.H.O, the climax of a very well thought out plan. First he has allowed a number Western Utility's to start and continue to operate and trade in Russia. Second he has made a number of European Countries to become very dependent on his Oil and Gas. Third he given the World more so the U,N a view as to a growing Freedom in Russia. He has over time developed a close partnership to China, and India. So when in his eyes, he got to that point and after seeing how his words have been taken as "Peace in his time" he "pounced".

His failure as we now see was to not realise that the Ukrainian's had become a Nation and were not going to "fall over" when he mounted his Invasion, which he had convinced himself would result in a 2 to 3 days war Victory.
He further thought that if as he planned the Invasion for just 3 days or so, the countries in Europe would hastate before any action.
He "Putin" has been compared with Hitler and indeed Stalin, but they had their day's when the world was in a totally different situation as it is today, so he will fail. Whether the World will decide to continue their Sanctions remains to be seen, but one point again IMHO, will start to show is Germany and France's and how they in the beginning "Ducked" the issue as the Invasion of Ukraine

 

[sear]

"Do you think Finland & Sweden joining NATO would make NATO and EU nations safer?" T #2

Before you asked I might have assumed so, more "guns" for our side. BUT !!
(your point perhaps) it's also more target for Putin & the other bad guys. Considering both, I'm guessing it's still a net advantage for NATO. If I missed your point T #2, please clarify.

"IMHO what we are dealing with is not so much a question of safety as to N.A.T.O or in fact Europe in general, what we are facing is a Leader who because during his 20 odd years in power, totally convinced he can "re-build" the U.S.S.R. in what he see's as it's lost power." W #4

That may sum it up pretty well.
Problem is, Putin's nostalgic longing for the days of prior meager glory is generations out of date. In the new millennium greatness is not in conquest and oppression. It's in prosperity. North Korea's central essence seems to be its own survival. In the West we have a broader panorama.

"His failure as we now see was ...
He further thought that ..." W #4

Miscalculations too numerous to count.
Among them, that the West was so ideologically fractured that we'd stand by and witness the atrocity without responding. Putin is now getting a battlefield education on Western cohesion.

What Putin probably doesn't fully appreciate yet is what a pariah he will remain, for perpetuity.
Russia's Gazprom was a cash cow for Russia. But Western economies are scrambling to get out from under the Gazprom thumb. And now that Putin has demonstrated his willingness to withhold fuel as a weapon against his business partners, few are eager to throw in w/ Putin on it now.

 

[Wolf]

What Putin probably doesn't fully appreciate yet is what a pariah he will remain, for perpetuity.
Russia's Gazprom was a cash cow for Russia. But Western economies are scrambling to get out from under the Gazprom thumb. And now that Putin has demonstrated his willingness to withhold fuel as a weapon against his business partners, few are eager to throw in w/ Putin on it now. Sear
I think that illustrates pretty much the situation. Putin is in a sense "locked away in mind" in what he believes is not only possible (due the European West becoming so dependent on Russian Energy) but if he holds his "nerve" in the end the West will settle. Reading today that a growing a number of Countries in the World seeing a negotiated peace the only answer, which in turn will mean the Ukrainian's giving up Territory, Putin will then "push to one side" the damage and lost of life he has caused, and "Parade to his people a Win". But he may also have over looked what has happened in Russia over the last years which is a sense of "freedom" from a Communist rule.

 

[sear]

"which in turn will mean the Ukrainian's giving up Territory" W #6

This AM I heard a radio report that neither side has the resources for a decisive win in this now 3 month long war.
It's not for me to dictate negotiating terms & concessions.

But it does seem to me ANY gain Putin may extract from his Ukraine adventure may be sufficient reward for either Russia or any other malefactor on the globe present or future to attempt further military conquest. I'm all for preserving Ukraine's sovereignty. But perhaps the larger prize here would be to smack Russia down hard enough to discourage future similar aggression.

 

[Wolf]

NATO could allow Turkey to exclude Finland & Sweden. Or NATO could modify the rule so that NATO membership additions needn't require 100% current NATO member agreement. That's risky. titan
I read yesterday that a once called a "Man of Realism" Henry Kissinger, who it's also reported to be if not a close friend of Putin, certainly one who appears to show "Warmth" to him, states that it is time for peace and for Ukraine's to give up territory too Putin's invasion I start to think back.
It's strange as History tends to repeat it's self. Back just before the Second World War started our, Mr. Chamberlin (our then P.M) had talks with Hitler, then a near replica of Putin present day. Both Hitler and Putin had by force taken land of other countries. And again a similar frame of mind in some was shown. We have now the President of France, "huffing and Puffing" seeing himself as "true Leader" like wise Hungary and Italy are showing growing signs "let Putin have a piece of Land lets get this disturbance over and done with".
Now for those who were living in lands as yet not conquered at the start of WW2 "fear" was growing.
When Hitler went full throttle, went through France like a knife through Butter, England stood firm. It cost us greatly we even put up with most of European leaders "running to our shores". But we had a friend in the U.S.A. and although it was a little time before they joined us, we together with the Common Wealth did beat the "crap" out of Germany and Italy so called "Winners".
So today when I read the reports of speeches of both Germany- Italian -Hungarian-and others who were freed by "OUR" forces, I have to ask "why on this Planet did we bother". Sorry but when you get to a certain age you begin to realise what crap we have in some parts of the world leading us.

 

[sear]

It might seem dismissive to acknowledge what appears to be exasperation. It's certainly understandable. Just compare the piles of rubble left after Hitler's London "blitz", to the elegant statuary in Paris.
In 2nd Millennium history, those on your side of the Channel have a more admirable history than some of those on the nearby mainland.

Neville Chamberlain has been cited as a dupe. I don't fault him. I think Chamberlain understood what a profound danger Hitler was. And Chamberlain at least had the courage to try to prevent what in 3rd millennium retrospect looks inevitable. Chamberlain's attempt for "peace in our time" famously failed.
Would it have made any more sense for PM Chamberlain to simply sit passively by as the predictable disaster unfolded?

I can't even offer a pat on the head to those from the island that saved the world. But I believe it has set the benchmark for the meaning of "stiff upper lip".

 

[Wolf]

I can't even offer a pat on the head to those from the island that saved the world. But I believe it has set the benchmark for the meaning of "stiff upper lip". Sear
I think it's what now called "Team effort". If had not been for the "might" of the U.S.A. History would been written differently.
And I agree as to Chamberlain's trying to either to off set Hitler's plan or at least give the Allies a "window" or time to get their teams effort together.
What we are seeing IMHO is some in Europe again either not seeing as to Putin's future plans, or may be not wishing too see what could happen, if he success in Ukraine.
It may be the majority of People don't wish to see what could and still might happen if Putin does succeed in Ukraine, they would rather it be treated as a Bad dream. Sadly the people of Ukraine are seeing the reality.

 

[sear]

In "street" terms, both Hitler & Putin are dirt-balls. BUT
I think Hitler was smarter. Putin's not only a knuckle-dragger, he's mired in a fantasy that died with the Cold War. Sadly, Putin's crash course in modernity is being paid for with the blood of the war dead in Ukraine.

 

[Wolf]

In "street" terms, both Hitler & Putin are dirt-balls. BUT Sear
Yes I agree, although at different times in History. How will those in the future see what is happening now and Judge, time will tell.
My main concern is how a growing number of Country's seem to think "Putin" is not really their concern because he is not attacking their Country. Again it appears that (as to Europe) there is this thought "well we can't do anything" and will continue to use the Energy that Putin thought and has used as his "weapon" against any who would stand against him.
But I am reading and listening to what seems a growing concern and anti thoughts in Russia against Putin. I read that an attempt on his life was mounted, it failed but this seemly a "rebuke" against his control.
We also have to look at how the sanctions against Russia are "biting" and again I read that Russia is nearing defaults on Bonds etc. which has not happened for very many years. Could it happen that Russia suddenly wakes up to near "World Bankruptcy" ?

 

[sear]

"My main concern is how a growing number of Country's seem to think "Putin" is not really their concern because he is not attacking their Country." W #12

You've already elucidated the comparison between H & P. So to complete the thought here's a quotation from pastor Martin Niemöller commenting on the Nazi holocaust then, a comment also of utility for those mentioned above, regarding the invasion of Ukraine:

"First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out - because I was not a communist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out - because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out - because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for me - and there was no one left to speak out for me." pastor Martin Niemöller

"Could it happen that Russia suddenly wakes up to near "World Bankruptcy" ?" W #12

$5 / gallon gasoline, commodities inflation the highest in decades, new cars selling for more than the sticker price.
You can't spell "Putin" without P.U. !!

 

[Wolf]

Again Sear I am going print and save (footnote where will be able to hang theses excellent quotes and phases?)
But thinking of what could happen not only in Russia, but the World, are we reaching that stage where, a growing number of the voting public, are starting to turn too the RIGHT, and again are we all looking for answers which present Governments of the centre or Left leaning are no longer answering ? IMHO and again looking at the current situation as regards "Immigrants". We in the UK are seeing a huge number asking for Asylum and to be able to settle here. I am all for those escaping persecution to be given a "safe home", but am suffering from a growing alarm that some, are wanting to "feed" on our freedom.

 

[sear]

"I am all for those escaping persecution to be given a "safe home", but am suffering from a growing alarm that some, are wanting to "feed" on our freedom." W #14

W #14,
As you know the magic wand isn't really the source of a magician's mysterious powers. The magician brandishes the magic wand high over head in the bright light while he places the rabbit in the hat in shadow. The magic wand is a distraction, drawing audience attention away from the true source of the action.

And that's what news stories like Russia / Ukraine, another Texas massacre, and Monkeypox do. They displace news coverage of basic social questions like: where do we draw the line.

We must be careful with our vocabulary choices here. In the U.S. what's called conservatism is in Australia called liberal.
I treat the word "conservative" literally, root word being "conserve". I support Thomas Jefferson's vision of "pursuit of happiness", in that 18th Century context "happiness" meaning prosperity.

You're right. "Free healthcare" and other social services might seem to invite freeloaders. All the more credit to a People that know that, but still show such compassion, humanity; even at the risk of being taken advantage of.

I personally support a more performance based meritocracy. That we are rewarded for effort. But can we honestly say that Jeff Bezos or Sir Richard Branson work harder than the illegal aliens that harvest U.S. food crops?

Perhaps a key element of happiness in the year 2022 is less about worrying about whether the other guy is freeloading, and more about appreciating our own lot. I have serious questions about the wisdom of leading the life of an ingrate. Mark Twain said he used to complain about not having shoes until he met a man that had no feet.

 

[Rampage]

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday he’s confident Turkey’s objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO can be overcome swiftly, possibly in time for a summit of alliance leaders at the end of next month.
At a news conference in Washington with visiting Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, Blinken said the U.S. has no reason to believe Turkey’s concerns cannot be addressed. His comments came after Turkey’s top diplomat said Finland and Sweden would have to take “concrete steps” before Ankara could support their membership.

https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-turkey-gun-politics-da6caf5d52e855d5e475693250fc1aef

Secretary of State Blinken isn't Turkey's spokesman. But it's understandable that NATO members would want to show NATO resolve to Russia. Too early to celebrate, but it looks hopeful.